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Annual precipitation since 515 BC reconstructed from living and fossil juniper growth of northeastern Qinghai Province, China

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Abstract

Annual precipitation for the last 2,500 years was reconstructed for northeastern Qinghai from living and archaeological juniper trees. A dominant feature of the precipitation of this area is a high degree of variability in mean rainfall at annual, decadal, and centennial scales, with many wet and dry periods that are corroborated by other paleoclimatic indicators. Reconstructed values of annual precipitation vary mostly from 100 to 300 mm and thus are no different from the modern instrumental record in Dulan. However, relatively dry years with below-average precipitation occurred more frequently in the past than in the present. Periods of relatively dry years occurred during 74–25 BC, AD 51–375, 426–500, 526–575, 626–700, 1100–1225, 1251–1325, 1451–1525, 1651–1750 and 1801–1825. Periods with a relatively wet climate occurred during AD 376–425, 576–625, 951–1050, 1351–1375, 1551–1600 and the present. This variability is probably related to latitudinal positions of winter frontal storms. Another key feature of precipitation in this area is an apparently direct relationship between interannual variability in rainfall with temperature, whereby increased warming in the future might lead to increased flooding and droughts. Such increased climatic variability might then impact human societies of the area, much as the climate has done for the past 2,500 years.

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Acknowledgements

We thank Chaz Tompkins, John C. King, Xing Gao, Gregg Garfin, field workers of the Lanzhou Institute of Glaciology and Geocryology; Xu Xinguo, director of the Archaeological Institute of Qinghai Province; Wang Shuzhi, Archaeological Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; Liu Xiaohe and Xiao Yongming, Xining; and Hermann Parzinger, president of the German Archaeological Institute, Berlin, for supporting this project in various ways. The living-tree part of this research was funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation (ATM-9203944) and the National Geographic Society. The archaeological part of this research was funded by the German Archaeological Institute. The research fellowship of P. Tarasov was granted by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. The measurement data from this research are now archived in the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (Grissino-Mayer and Fritts 1997). We thank the two anonymous reviewers for their critical and valuable comments.

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  1. L. J. Graumlich

    Present address: Big Sky Institute, University of Montana, Bozeman, MT, 59717, USA

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA

    P. R. Sheppard & L. J. Graumlich

  2. Potsdam Department, Alfred-Wegener-Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Telegrafenberg A43, Potsdam, 14473, Germany

    P. E. Tarasov

  3. Department of Eurasian Archaeology, German Archaeological Institute, House 2, Im Dol 2-6, Berlin, 14195, Germany

    K.-U. Heussner & M. Wagner

  4. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg, P. O. Box 60 12 03, Potsdam, 14412, Germany

    H. Österle

  5. Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, 43210, USA

    L. G. Thompson

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Sheppard, P.R., Tarasov, P.E., Graumlich, L.J. et al. Annual precipitation since 515 BC reconstructed from living and fossil juniper growth of northeastern Qinghai Province, China. Climate Dynamics 23, 869–881 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0473-2

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