Empirical Assessment of Debris Flow Risk on a Regional Scale in Yunnan Province, Southwestern China

Abstract

Adopting the definition suggested by the United Nations, a risk model for regional debris flow assessment is presented. Risk is defined as the product of hazard and vulnerability, both of which are necessary for evaluation. A Multiple-Factor Composite Assessment Model is developed for quantifying regional debris flow hazard by taking into account eight variables that contribute to debris flow magnitude and its frequency of occurrence. Vulnerability is a measure of the potential total losses. On a regional scale, it can be measured by the fixed asset, gross domestic product, land resources, population density, as well as the age, education, and wealth of the inhabitants. A nonlinear power-function assessment model that accounts for these indexes is developed. As a case study, the model is applied to compute the hazard, vulnerability and risk for each prefecture of the Yunnan province in southwestern China.