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Assessing the effects of climate change on the distribution of pulmonate freshwater snail biodiversity

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Abstract

Global warming is expected to profoundly change the characteristics of freshwater habitats. Increasing evaporation, lower oxygen concentration due to increased water temperatures and changes in precipitation pattern are likely to affect the survival and reproduction of pulmonate freshwater gastropods. Our statistical niche modelling analysis suggests that for a great proportion of the North-West European genera, the range sizes were predicted to decrease by 2,080, even if unlimited dispersal was assumed. The forecasted warming in the cooler northern ranges predicted the emergence of new suitable areas, as well as drastically reduced available habitat in the southern part of the studied region. Phylogenetic signal was inferred for one dimension of the climatic niche. Independent contrast analyses, taking into account the phylogenetic relationships between the taxa, showed a positive correlation between the genera’s climate niche width and the size of future suitable area. In summary, the results predict a profound faunal freshwater gastropod shift for Central Europe, either permitting the establishment of species currently living south of the studied region or permitting the proliferation of organisms relying on the same food resources, if dispersal abilities do not match the rate of climate change.

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Acknowledgments

This research was performed at the University of Frankfurt and at the Biodiversity and Research Centre. We thank K. Kuhn, R. Kraus, H. Geupel and S. Trumic for technical assistance. C. Albrecht kindly provided samples. We thank also the curators R. Janssen, J. Ablett, T. Backeljau, Z. Fehér, K. Edlinger and late M. Gosteli for access to museum collections. L. Sonesten and J. Økland helped with the use of existing databases. O. Tackenberg and I. Marzolff helped with the use of ArcView and with other GIS-related issues. The work received financial support within the AQUASHIFT DFG priority program (Grant MP390/4-1 to 4-3) and from the research funding programme “LOEWE—Landes-Offensive zur Entwicklung Wissenschaftlich-ökonomischer Exzellenz” of Hesse’s Ministry of Higher Education, Research, and the Arts.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Abteilung Ökologie und Evolution, Institut für Ökologie, Evolution und Diversität der Goethe-Universität, Siesmayerstrasse 70, 60323, Frankfurt, Germany

    M. Cordellier, A. Pfenninger & B. Streit

  2. Arbeitsgruppe Molekulare Ökologie, Forschungszentrum Biodiversität und Klima der Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung und der Goethe-Universität, Senckenberganlage 25, 60325, Frankfurt, Germany

    M. Cordellier & M. Pfenninger

Authors
  1. M. Cordellier
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Correspondence to M. Pfenninger.

Additional information

Communicated by U. Sommer.

Appendix

Appendix

 

Species

NCBI sequence COI

NCBI sequence 16S

Acroloxus lacustris

AY282581

EF489311

Ancylus fluviatilis

AY282582

EF489312

Aplexa hypnorum

AY577504

AY577464

Bathyomphalus contortus

EF012166

EF012184

Galba truncatula

DQ980189

Acc. Numb to be provided

Gyraulus albus

Y14710

AY577480

Hippeutis complanatus

EF012170

EF012187

Lymnea stagnalis

EF489390

EF489314

Myxas glutinosa

DQ980191

Acc. Numb to be provided

Omphalaria gla

DQ980192

 

Physa acuta

AY282589

AY651219

Physa fontinalis

AY577505

AY577465

Planorbarius corneus

AY282590

AY577473

Planorbis planorbis

EF012175

AY350568

Segmentina nitida

EF012178

AY577481

Stagnicola palustris

Acc. Numb to be provided

U82082

Radix sp. 1

DQ980134

Acc. Numb to be provided

Radix sp. 2

DQ980142

Acc. Numb to be provided

Radix sp. 3

DQ980120

Acc. Numb to be provided

Radix sp. 4

DQ980141

Acc. Numb to be provided

Radix sp. 5

DQ980082

Acc. Numb to be provided

Radix sp. 6

DQ980125

Acc. Numb to be provided

Siphonaria serrata

EF489380

EF489302

Anisus vortex

AY577518

AY577478

Anisus leucostoma

AY577517

AY577477

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Cordellier, M., Pfenninger, A., Streit, B. et al. Assessing the effects of climate change on the distribution of pulmonate freshwater snail biodiversity. Mar Biol 159, 2519–2531 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227-012-1894-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227-012-1894-9

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