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Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessments for Beijing–Tianjin–Tangshan, China, Area

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Abstract

Seismic hazard and risk in the Beijing–Tianjin–Tangshan, China, area were estimated from 500-year intensity observations. First, we digitized the intensity observations (maps) using ArcGIS with a cell size of 0.1 × 0.1°. Second, we performed a statistical analysis on the digitized intensity data, determined an average b value (0.39), and derived the intensity–frequency relationship (hazard curve) for each cell. Finally, based on a Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, we calculated seismic risk in terms of a probability of I ≥ 7, 8, or 9 in 50 years. We also calculated the corresponding 10 percent probability of exceedance of these intensities in 50 years. The advantages of assessing seismic hazard and risk from intensity records are that (1) fewer assumptions (i.e., earthquake source and ground motion attenuation) are made, and (2) site-effect is included. Our study shows that the area has high seismic hazard and risk. Our study also suggests that current design peak ground acceleration or intensity for the area may not be adequate.

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Acknowledgments

We thank Yanju Peng and Jinshi Hao for their help in ArcGIS digitization, and Yan Zhao, Xiaoliang Zhang, and Jiyang Ye for their assistance in data analyses. We thank Meg Smath of the Kentucky Geological Survey for editorial help. We also thank two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions that improved this manuscript greatly.

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Correspondence to Zhenming Wang.

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Xie, F., Wang, Z. & Liu, J. Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessments for Beijing–Tianjin–Tangshan, China, Area. Pure Appl. Geophys. 168, 731–738 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-010-0115-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-010-0115-z

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