China’s Demographic Dilemma and Potential Solutions

This book is a quantitative assessment of the challenges China faces as it tries to achieve the twin goals of mitigating the effects of population aging while containing the overall size of the population. After a close examination of the impact of China’s fertility policies on the country’s population structure and size, the author presents empirical evidence for the effectiveness of finely calibrated easing of the country’s decades-long birth control policies for both of these objectives. This research uses an innovative quantitative indicator—the Aging and Economic Coordination Index (AECI)—to measure the macroeconomic pressure population aging places on the country. This is the first time the AECI has been systematically applied to gauge the magnitude and the trends of that pressure for the 1980–2050 period, and to provide the basis for policy suggestions about what might be done to ease that pressure.

Long Mo did his doctoral and post-doctoral work in Canada. He now serves as a professor at the Guangxi College of Administration, and as former director and tier-two professor at the Institute of Population Research of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. Mo receives a special governmental allowance from the State Council and is an expert on the National Social Sciences Fund (China) Demographics Department Demographic Planning and Review Panel. He is an Executive Board Member of the China Population Association and a Board Member of the China Association of Gerontology and Geriatrics. He began studying and teaching demographics in 1985, his primary research area being aging and the geriatric population. Mo spent a decade working and researching for Institut national d'études démographiques (INED, National Institute of Demographic Studies in France), the demography department of the Université de Montréal, and Statistics Canada (an agency of the Canadian government). He has written and published many academic papers and books in Chinese, French, and English. He supervised to completion of a research project for the National Social Sciences Fund (China), which received an award for excellence. He has won three provincial-level tier-one prizes and five provincial-level tier-two prizes for his research achievements (as sole or first author). One compilation of his research papers was included in the Library of National Achievements in Philosophy and the Social Sciences, published in China. His works have twice been included in National Fund for Social Sciences Foreign Translations of Chinese Academic Works, which is currently being translated into English and Japanese for imminent publication. Mo previously served as co-professor at the Université de Montréal, and has accepted invitations to present his research in France, Belgium, and Canada.
 
Yuhong Wei is a professor at the Guangxi College of Administration, a member of the school’s academic committee, and as deputy director of the Institute of Population Research of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. She has researched and taught demographics and finance for over two decades. She has either supervised or served as primary participant in the following six research projects for the National Social Sciences Fund (China) (two of which won prizes for excellence): the construction of the diverse funding input security mechanisms for the development of in-home senior care in China; constraints and effects of aging on China’s demographic development strategy; case studies in longevity among minorities of Western China; a study of marginalized populations amid the construction of the harmonious society; a study of the fiscal support system for constructing the new socialist countryside in minority regions; and a study of the distribution of the urbanized industry structure in different regions of Guangxi. She supervised to completion of six research projects at the provincial and prefectural levels. She has had five of her academic books published by the China Social Sciences Academic Press, the China Population Press, and other publishers. She has had more than 40 articles published in Renkou yanjiu and other academic periodicals, and has received 25 provincial-level and prefectural-level prizes for excellence in research achievements.