Expert Judgment and Expert Systems

1. Front Matter

   Pages I-VIII

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2. Keynote Lectures

   1. Toward a Unified Approach to the Study of Expert Judgment

      • Kenneth R. Hammond

      Pages 1-16

   2. Some Abstract Problems in Knowledge Representation

      • Michael M. Richter

      Pages 17-25

   3. Principles of the Analytic Hierarchy Process

      • Thomas L. Saaty

      Pages 27-73

   4. Policy Analysis and Decision Aids

      • Stephen Watson

      Pages 75-84

3. Invited Presentations

   1. Knowledge Systems, Expert Systems, and Risk Communication

      • Joseph Fiksel, Vincent T. Covello

      Pages 85-103

   2. Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence: Is Probability Epistemologically and Heuristically Adequate?

      • Max Henrion

      Pages 105-129

   3. The Use of Causal Knowledge for Inferential Reasoning

      • Helmut Jungermann, Manfred Thüring

      Pages 131-146

   4. Interactive Decision Support Systems for Enhancing Expert Judgment

      • İbrahim Kavrakoğlu

      Pages 147-153

   5. Value-Driven Expert Systems for Decision Support

      • Ralph L. Keeney

      Pages 155-171

   6. Expert Systems and Creativity

      • Kenneth R. MacCrimmon, Christian Wagner

      Pages 173-193

   7. Expert Systems and Expert Judgment: A User’s Perspective

      • L. E. Milton

      Pages 195-215

   8. Very Simple Expert Systems: An Application of Judgment Analysis to Political Risk Analysis

      • Jeryl L. Mumpower

      Pages 217-240

   9. Expert Systems and Intelligent Computer-Assisted-Instruction

      • Emrah Orhun

      Pages 241-249

   10. Assessing the Effectiveness of Expert Teams

       • John Rohrbaugh

       Pages 251-267

   11. Expert Systems as Cognitive Tools for Human Decision Making

       • Franz Schmalhofer

       Pages 269-288

   12. Psychological Characteristics of Expert Decision Makers

       • James Shanteau

       Pages 289-304

   13. Descriptive and Prescriptive Models for Judgment and Decision Making: Implications for Knowledge Engineering

       • Thomas R. Stewart, Claude McMillan Jr.

       Pages 305-320

   14. Knowledge Extraction from Experts in View of the Construction of Expert Systems

       • F. Vandamme

       Pages 321-337

   15. Common Sense Knowledge in Expert Systems

       • Thomas Wetter

       Pages 339-358

This volume is an outgrowth of a NATO Advanced Research Workshop on "Expert Judgment and Expert Systems," held in Porto, Portugal, August 1986. Support for the Workshop was provided by the NATO Division of Scientific Affairs, the U.S. Army Research Institute, and the U.S. National Science Foundation. The Workshop brought together researchers from the fields of psychology, decision analysis, and artificial intelligence. The purposes were to assess similarities, differences, and complementarities among the three approaches to the study of expert judgment; to evaluate their relative strengths and weaknesses; and to propose profitable linkages between them. Each of the papers in the present volume is directed toward one or more of those goals. We wish to express our appreciation and thanks to the following persons for their support and assistance: John Adams, Vincent T. Covello, Luis da Cunha, Claire Jeseo, B. Michael Kantrowitz, Margaret Lally, Judith Orasanu, R. M. Rodrigues, and Sandor P. Schuman.

• artificial intelligence
• decision support
• decision support system
• expert system
• intelligence
• knowledge engineering
• knowledge representation
• uncertainty

• Department of Public Administration, Rockefeller College, State University of New York, Albany, USA

  Jeryl L. Mumpower

• Clark University, Worcester, USA

  Ortwin Renn

• Decision Analysis Unit, London School of Economics and Political Science, UK

  Lawrence D. Phillips

• Mathematics and Statistics, Research Department, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, USA

  V. R. R. Uppuluri

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