Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

A state-based regression model for estimating substate life expectancy

  • Published:
Demography

Abstract

Life expectancy is an important indicator of the level of mortality in a population. However, the conventional way of calculating life expectancy—constructing a life table—has rigorous data requirements. As a consequence, life expectancy data are not usually available for substate areas. In this article, a regression model for estimating life expectancy is constructed, using state-level data, and is tested against two sets of 1980 life expectancy data: (1) a nationwide sample of metropolitan areas and (2) selected cities, their suburbs, and rural counties in Ohio. An additional test shows the sensitivity of the model’s accuracy to errors in one of its input data elements. The results suggest that the model should be given serious consideration for generating life expectancy estimates for substate areas.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bousfield, M. V. 1977. Intercensal estimation using a current sample and census data. Review of Public Data Use 5:6–15.

    Google Scholar 

  • Burch, P. R. J. 1967. Nature’s time-scale: Degenerative disease in man. Nature 216:298–299.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carrier, N. H., and J. Hobcraft. 1971. Demographic Estimation for Developing Societies. London: Population Investigation Committee, London School of Economics.

    Google Scholar 

  • Coale, A. J. 1984. Estimation of life at advanced ages. Genus 40:185–190.

    Google Scholar 

  • Coale, A. J., and P. Demeny. 1966. Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Feinlieb, M. 1984. Technical assistance and the data use conference on small area statistics. Pp. 1–2 in National Center for Health Statistics, Invited Papers to the Data Use Conference on Small Area Statistics. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fowles, D. 1978. The Elderly Population: Estimates by County, 1976. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Dept. of Health, Education, and Welfare, Administration on Aging.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gunasekaran, S., J. A. Palmore, and R. W. Gardner. 1981. Regression estimates of mortality from incomplete death registration.Asian and Pacific Census Forum 7(May):5–9.

    Google Scholar 

  • Horiuchi, S., and A. J. Coale. 1982. A simple equation for estimating the expectation of life at old ages. Population Studies 36:317–326.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Indiana, State of. 1983. 1982 Indiana Vital Statistics. Indianapolis: Indiana State Board of Health.

    Google Scholar 

  • Irwin, R. 1980. Methodology for Estimates of the Population of Counties by Age and Sex: July 1, 1975, Current Population Reports, Ser. P-23, No. 103. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Bureau of the Census.

    Google Scholar 

  • Irwin, R. 1984. Were the NCI County Age-Sex-Race Estimates OK? Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Southern Regional Demographic Group, Orlando, Florida.

  • Irwin, R. 1985. An Evaluation of Short-Range Projections of County Population by Age and Sex: 1977-1980. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Boston.

  • Lee, E. S., and H. F. Goldsmith (eds.). 1982. Population Estimates: Methods for Small Area Analysis. Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage.

    Google Scholar 

  • Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. 1981. Methods for the analysis of mortality risks across heterogeneous small populations: Examination of space-time gradients in cancer mortality in North Carolina counties 1970-75. Demography 18:217–230.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Martin, J. H., and W. J. Serow. 1978. Estimating demographic characteristics using the ratio-correlation method. Demography 15:223–233.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mazur, D. P. 1969a. Expectancy of life at birth in 36 nationalities of the Soviet Union: 1958-60. Population Studies 23:225–246.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • — 1969b. Techniques for Estimating Basic Demographic Measures From Limited Data for the U.S.S.R.: 1959–60. London: International Union for the Scientific Study of Population.

    Google Scholar 

  • — 1971. Demographic aging in Europe as a function of relative mortality. Statistisk Tidskrift 6:296–301.

    Google Scholar 

  • — 1972. Using regression models to estimate the expectation of life for the U.S.S.R. journal of the American Statistical Association 67:31–36.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mitra, S. 1984. Estimating the expectation of life at older ages. Population Studies 38:313–319.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • National Center for Health Statistics. 1984. Invited Papers to the Data Use Conference on Small Area Statistics. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services.

    Google Scholar 

  • —. 1985a. Vital Statistics of the United States, 1980 (Vol. 2): Mortality, Part B. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services.

    Google Scholar 

  • —. 1985b. Vital Statistics of the United States, 1980 (Vol. 2): Mortality, Part A. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services.

    Google Scholar 

  • —. 1985c. U.S. Decennial Life Tables for 1979-81 (Vol. 2): State Life Tables, No. 2, Alaska. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services.

    Google Scholar 

  • National Research Council. 1980. Estimating Population and Income of Small Areas. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Preston, S., and K. Hill. 1980. Estimating the completeness of death registration. Population Studies 34:349–366.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shryock, H. S., J. S. Siegel, and Associates. 1976. The Methods and Materials of Demography (condensed ed. by E. G. Stockwell). New York: Academic Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Siler, W. 1979. A competing risk model for animal mortality. Ecology 60:750–757.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Swanson, D. A. 1977. Comparative mortality levels for Washington state counties in 1975. Pp. 55–62 in State of Washington, State of Washington Population Trends, 1977. Olympia: Office of Financial Management.

    Google Scholar 

  • Swanson, D. A., and J. A. Palmore. 1976. Two-parameter regression estimates of current life expectancy at birth: Part 1. Asian and Pacific Census Forum 3(November):5–10.

    Google Scholar 

  • Swanson, D. A., J. A. Palmore, and C. Sundarum. 1977. Two-parameter regression estimates of current life expectancy at birth: Part II. Asian and Pacific Census Forum 3(May):5–10.

    Google Scholar 

  • —. 1986. Geographic variation of longevity in Ohio, 1930 and 1980. Ohio tournai of Science 86(September):144–149.

    Google Scholar 

  • Swanson, D. A. 1988. Are geographic effects on life expectancy in Ohio spurious because of race? Ohio Journal of Science 88(June):116–118.

    Google Scholar 

  • Swanson, D. A., and L. Swanson. A method for estimating annual age-standardized mortality rates for counties: Results of a test using Washington state data. Pp. 466-470 in Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section, American Statistical Association. Alexandria, Va.: ASA.

  • U.S. Bureau of the Census. 1977. Developmental Estimates of the Coverage of the Population of States in the 1970 Census, Current Population Reports, Ser. P-23, No. 65. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.

    Google Scholar 

  • —. 1983a. General Population Characteristics, Part 1: United States Summary, 1980 Census of Population. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.

    Google Scholar 

  • —. 1983b. General Population Characteristics (by state). Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.

    Google Scholar 

  • Washington, State of. 1985. Population Trends for Washington State. Olympia: Office of Financial Management.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wennberg, J., and A. Gittelsohn. 1975. Small area variations in health care delivery. Science 182:1102–1108.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • — 1980. A Small Area Approach to the Analysis of Health System Performance, Health Planning Methods and Technology Ser. No. 21. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Sociology, Pacific Lutheran University, 98447, Tacoma, Washington

    David A. Swanson

Authors
  1. David A. Swanson
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Swanson, D.A. A state-based regression model for estimating substate life expectancy. Demography 26, 161–170 (1989). https://doi.org/10.2307/2061502

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2061502

Keywords

Search

Navigation