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Dynamics of Structural Change in a Globalized World: What Is the Role Played by Institutions in the Case of Sub-Saharan African Countries?

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Abstract

Within the framework of a panel model of 74 developing countries for the period 1984–2013, we show that structural change can be impacted by the quality of institutions. We use two subsamples: the first composed of countries of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the second composed of the other developing countries included in the sample. We show that international integration confines the countries of SSA to low-value-added production. It appears that, for these countries, low levels of institution quality and resource-based specialization hinder structural change and prevent them from benefiting from the positive effects of international trade. For the countries of SSA, international trade has a deleterious effect.

Résumé

Dans le cadre d’un modèle de panel composé de 74 pays en développement pour la période allant de 1984 à 2013, nous montrons que le changement structurel peut être affecté par la qualité des institutions. Nous utilisons deux sous-échantillons: le premier composé de pays d’Afrique subsaharienne (ASS) et le second composé des autres pays en développement présents dans l’échantillon. Nous montrons que l’intégration internationale cantonne les pays d’ASS à une production à faible valeur ajoutée. Il semble que pour ces pays, le faible niveau de qualité des institutions et la spécialisation basée sur les ressources entravent les changements structurels et les empêchent de profiter des effets positifs du commerce international. Pour les pays d’Afrique subsaharienne, le commerce international a un effet néfaste.

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Notes

  1. For classic works, see Fisher (1939) and Clark (1940).

  2. For a review of literature on how institutions impact growth, see Acemoglu and Johnson (2005).

  3. For example, on page 66 of the present work, a brief passage explains that, in the case of some countries (Argentina), links between institutions and structural change can be established.

  4. For example, the countries of the 1st Industrial Revolution, Latin American countries, or Asian newly industrialized countries (NICs).

  5. Namely Botswana, Brazil, Ghana, India, Nigeria, Vietnam, and Zambia

  6. See Online Annex 1 for more information on these indexes.

  7. See the following studies: Leff (1964), Lui (1985), Ades and Di Tella (1999), Wei (1999), Akai et al. (2005), Méon and Sekkat (2005), and Dreher and Gassebner (2013).

  8. The average growth rate of the whole sample is 4.04% over the study period.

  9. Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of the Congo, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, and Zimbabwe

  10. For a description of these indexes, see Schiavo-Campo (1978).

  11. For the period, the average of the total sample for MVA is 14.4%, and 29.9% for IVA.

  12. For example, Angola, R. R. Congo, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, and Sierra Leone.

  13. Mean difference tests confirm the significant differences between the two samples of countries for all the institutional variables. The results of these tests can be obtained from the author’s notes.

  14. See Hausman and Taylor (1981) and Baltagi et al. (2003).

  15. See Hansen (1982)

  16. We use a Wooldridge test for autocorrelation and a Wald test for groupwise heteroscedasticity.

  17. The variables included in the model do not induce collinearity problems (Annex 3 includes the VIF test, the eigenvalue and condition index, multicollinearity range, and Theil R2 multicollinearity effect).

  18. The same approach is used for all the tables.

  19. The correlation coefficient between internal and external conflicts is 0.568, and that between internal and ethnic tension is 0.561.

  20. When we use these variables separately, the condition indexes are always valued as less than 20, and variance-decomposition proportions are less than 0.5.

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Chenaf-Nicet, D. Dynamics of Structural Change in a Globalized World: What Is the Role Played by Institutions in the Case of Sub-Saharan African Countries?. Eur J Dev Res 32, 998–1037 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41287-019-00250-2

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