Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

The emergence of Sub-Replacement Family Size Ideals in Europe

  • Published:
Population Research and Policy Review Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Period fertility started to drop significantly below replacement in most Western European countries during the 1970s and 1980s, while most fertility surveys, value studies and opinion polls have found that the number of children considered ideal for society or for one's own family has remained above two children per woman. These surveys have led to the expectation that, sooner or later, period fertility would recover in Europe. The most recent data from the Eurobarometer 2001 survey, however, suggest that in the German-speaking parts of Europe the average ideal family sizes given by younger men and women have fallen as low as 1.7 children. This paper examines the consistency and the credibility of these new findings, which – if they are indeed indications of a new trend – may alter the current discussion about future fertility trends in Europe.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Ajzen, I. & Fishbein, M. (1980). Understanding Attitudes and Predicting Behaviour. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bongaarts, J. (1998). Fertility and reproductive preferences in post-transitional societies, Population Council, Policy Research Division, Working Paper, No. 114.

  • Bongaarts, J. (2001). Fertility and reproductive preferences in post-transitional societies: Global fertility transition, Supplement to Population and Development Review 27: 260–281.

    Google Scholar 

  • Billari, F.C. & Wilson, C. (2001). Convergence toward diversity? Cohort dynamics in the transition to adulthood in contemporary Western Europe, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Working Paper, 39.

  • Bulatao, R.A. & Lee, R.D. (1983). Determinants of fertility in developing countries, Vol. 1. London: Academic Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chesnais, J.-C. (1996). Fertility, family and social policy, Population and Development Review 22(4): 729–739.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chesnais, J.-C. (2000). Determinants of below replacement fertility, Population Bulletin of the United Nations 1999 (40/41): 126–136.

  • Coleman, D., ed. (1996). New patterns and trends in European fertility: International and subnational comparisons, pp. 1–61, in D. Coleman (ed.), Europe's Population in the 1990s. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

  • Council of Europe (2001). Recent demographic development in Europe. Strasbourg: Council of Europe Publishing.

    Google Scholar 

  • European Commission (1979). The Europeans and their children, Eurobarometer 11, organised and supervised by DG Press and Communication, Brussels.

  • European Commission (1990). Family and the desire for children, Eurobarometer 32, organised and supervised by DG Press and Communication, Brussels.

  • EUROSTAT (2001). Europäische Sozialstatistik Bevölkerung. Luxembourg: European Communities.

    Google Scholar 

  • Freedman, R., Freedman, D.S. & Thornton, A. 1980. Changes in fertility expectations and preferences between 1962 and 1977: Their relation to final parity, Demography 17(1): 1–11.

    Google Scholar 

  • Frejka, T. & Ross, J. (2001). Paths to sub-replacement fertility: The empirical evidence, Population and Development Review 27: 213–254.

    Google Scholar 

  • Friesl, C. (2001). Experiment Jung-Sein. Die Wertewelt Österreichischer Jugendlicher. Vienna: Czernin Verlag.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gauthier, A.H. (2001). The impact of public policies on families and demographic behaviour, paper presented at the ESF/EURESCO Conference on the Second Demographic Transition in Europe, Bad Herrenhalb, Germany, June 23–28 (available at http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/workshops).

  • Hendershot, G.E. & Placek, P.J. (1981). Predicting Fertility. Lexington, MA: Lexington Books.

    Google Scholar 

  • Inglehart, R. (1990). Culture Shift in Advanced Industrial Society. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kohler, H.-P. (2001). Fertility and Social Interaction: An Economic Perspective. New York: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lee, R. (1980). Aiming at moving target: Period fertility and changing reproductive goals, Population Studies 34: 205–226.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lesthaeghe, R. & Surkyn, J. (1988). Cultural dynamics and economic theories of fertility change, Population and Development Review 14(1): 1–45.

    Google Scholar 

  • Livi Bacci, M. (2001). Comment: Desired family size and the future course of fertility, Population and Development Review 27: 282–289.

    Google Scholar 

  • Livi Bacci, M. & De Santis, G. (2001). Reflections on the economics of the fertility decline in Europe, Paper presented at the ESF/EURESCO Conference on The Second Demographic Transition in Europe, Bad Herrenhalb, Germany, June 23–28.

  • Menniti, A. (2001). Fertility intentions and subsequent behaviour: First results of a panel study, paper presented to the EAPS, European Population Conference, Helsinki, June 7–9.

  • Miller, W.B. & Pasta, D.J. (1995). How does childbearing affect fertility motivations and desires? Social Biology 42(3–4): 185–198.

    Google Scholar 

  • Monnier, A. (1987). Projects de fécondité et fécondité effective. Une enquête longitudinale: 1974, 1976, 1979, Population 6: 819–842.

    Google Scholar 

  • Morgan, P.S. (1982). Parity-specific fertility intentions and uncertainty: The United States, 1970 to 1976, Demography 19(3): 215–334.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nambodiri, K. (1983). Sequential fertility decision making and the life course, pp. 444–472, in R.A. Bulatao & R.D. Lee (eds.), Determinants of Fertility in Developing Countries, Vol. 2. New York: Academic Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • National Research Council (2001). Diffusion Processes and Fertility Transition: Selected Perspectives, Committee on population, J.B. Casterline (ed.), Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ní Bhrolcháin, M. (1987). Period parity progression ratios and birth intervals in England and Wales, 1941–1971: A synthetic life table analysis, Population Studies 41(1): 103–125.

    Google Scholar 

  • OECD (2002). Labour Force Statistics, 1981–2001, Paris.

  • Preston, S.H. (1976). Family size of children, family size of women, Demography 31: 105–114.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pritchett, L.H. (1994). Desired fertility and the impact of population policies, Population and Development Review 20(1): 1–55.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reher, D.S. (1998). Family ties in Western Europe: Persistent contrasts, Population and Development Review 24(2): 203–234.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rindfuss, R.R., Morgan, P.S. & Swicegood, G. (1988). First Births in America: Changes in the Timing of Parenthood. Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ryder, N.B. (1981). Changes in parity orientation from 1970 to 1975, pp. 101–127, in G.E. Hendershot & P.J. Placek (eds.), Predicting Fertility. Lexington, MA: Lexington Books.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schoen, R., Kim, Y.J., Nathanson, C.A., Fields, J. & Astone, N.M. (1997). Why do Americans want children? Population and Development Review 23(2): 333–358.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schoen, R., Astone, N.M., Kim, Y.J. & Nathanson, C.A. (1999). Do fertility intentions affect fertility behavior? Journal of Marriage and the Family 61(3): 790–799.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schoenmaeckers, R.C. & Lodewijckx, E. (1999). Demographic behaviour in Europe: Some results from FFS country reports and suggestions for further research, European Journal of Population 15: 207–240.

    Google Scholar 

  • Symeonidou, H. (2000). Expected and actual family size in Greece: 1983–1997, European Journal of Population 16(4): 335–352.

    Google Scholar 

  • Toulemon, L. (2001). Why fertility is not so low in France, paper presented at the IUSSP – International Union for Scientific Study of Population –Seminar on International perspectives on Low fertility: Trends, theories and policies, Tokyo, March 21–23.

  • United Nations (1999). Dictionary of demographic and reproductive health terminology, POPIN, Population Information Network (available at: http://www.popin.org).

  • Van de Giessen, H. (1992). Using birth expectations information in national population forecasts, pp. 223–241, in N. Keilman & H. Cruijsen, (eds.), National Population Forecasting in Industrialized Countries. NIDI and CBGS Publications.

  • Van de Kaa D.J. (1998). Postmodern fertility preferences: From changing value orientation to new behavior, Working Papers in Demography, No. 74. Canberra: Australian National University.

    Google Scholar 

  • Van de Kaa, D.J. (2001). Postmodern fertility preferences: From changing value orientation to new behaviour, Population and Development Review 27: 290–331.

    Google Scholar 

  • Van Hoorn, W. & Keilman, N. (1997). Births expectations and their use in fertility forecasting, EUROSTAT Working Paper.

  • Westoff, C.F. (1981). The validity of birth intentions: Evidence from U.S. longitudinal studies, pp. 51–74, in G.E. Hendershot & P.J. Placek (eds.), Predicting Fertility. Lexington, MA: Lexington Books,.

    Google Scholar 

  • Westoff, C.F. & Ryder, N.B. (1977). The predictive validity of reproductive intentions, Demography 14: 431–453.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yamaguchi, K. & Ferguson, L.R. (1985). The stopping and spacing of childbirths and their birth-history predictors: Rational-choice theory and event-history analysis, American Sociological Review 60(2): 272–298.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Princeton University, NJ, 08544, USA

    Joshua Goldstein

  2. Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna, Austria

    Wolfgang Lutz & Maria Rita Testa

Authors
  1. Joshua Goldstein
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Wolfgang Lutz
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Maria Rita Testa
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Goldstein, J., Lutz, W. & Testa, M.R. The emergence of Sub-Replacement Family Size Ideals in Europe. Population Research and Policy Review 22, 479–496 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1023/B:POPU.0000020962.80895.4a

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/B:POPU.0000020962.80895.4a

Keywords

Search

Navigation