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Climate Change Impacts on the South American Monsoon System and Its Surface–Atmosphere Processes Through RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE Projections

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Abstract

This study evaluates projected changes in surface water and energy balances and surface–atmosphere coupling in the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) for the end of the century (2080–2099). The analyses are based on two ensemble datasets, which follow Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 in the future period, and cover four subdomains (Northern and Southern—NAMZ and SAMZ—Amazon, La Plata Basin—LPB, and Southern Southeast Brazil—SSB). One ensemble consists of three Global Climate Models (HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-MR and NorESM1-M), while the other consists of their dynamically downscaled version at 25 km horizontal grid spacing using Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4). As both ensembles are able in reproducing the annual cycle of the components of the surface water and energy balances in the present climate, they can be used in the study of future climate. During the wet season (November–March), both ensembles project a decrease in precipitation over NAMZ and SAMZ (an exception is RegCM4 that projects a slight increase in SAMZ), and an increase across the LPB and SSB. These changes do not cause retreat or expansion of the monsoon area over the continent, which is similar to the present climate (1995–2014). For the wet season, the ensembles are in line with the presence of a strong surface–atmosphere coupling in LPB and SSB, weak coupling in SAMZ and very weak coupling in NAMZ. For future climate, the coupling is even weaker in NAMZ, which may be a driver for the negative changes in precipitation. For the other subdomains, while the ensembles project similar signals of precipitation changes, they disagree with the surface-atmosphere coupling highlighting the uncertainties in future climate.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the working groups of CMIP5, ICTP, and GPCP for producing and making their data available. The present study was carried out with support from the Higher Education Personnel Improvement Coordination—Brazil (CAPES)—Financing Code 001 and National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq). M. A. was supported by the National Climate‐Computing Research Center, which is located within the National Center for Computational Sciences at the ORNL and supported under a Strategic Partnership Project, 2316‐T849‐08, between DOE and NOAA.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Federal University of Itajubá, UNIFEI, Itajubá, MG, Brazil

    Thales Alves Teodoro & Michelle Simões Reboita

  2. The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste, Italy

    Michelle Simões Reboita

  3. Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP), Bauru, SP, Brazil

    Marta Llopart

  4. Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, USP, São Paulo, Brazil

    Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha

  5. Computational Sciences and Engineering Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA

    Moetasim Ashfaq

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  1. Thales Alves Teodoro
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  2. Michelle Simões Reboita
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Correspondence to Michelle Simões Reboita.

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Teodoro, T.A., Reboita, M.S., Llopart, M. et al. Climate Change Impacts on the South American Monsoon System and Its Surface–Atmosphere Processes Through RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE Projections. Earth Syst Environ 5, 825–847 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00265-y

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