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Assessment of future water demand in a semiarid region of Turkey: a case study of Tahtali–Seferihisar Basin

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Abstract

Water is a vital resource for society and nature, and its scarcity has consequences in all aspects of existence. Today, issues including the inability to preserve the status of existing water resources and excessive water withdrawal are causing the amount of water to diminish day by day. Furthermore, factors such as urbanization and industrialization, population growth, water quality degradation owing to agricultural pesticides, and climate change, all have a negative impact on water supplies. A basin-based water management analysis was carried out in this study by applying the "Integrated Water Resources Management" strategy to the Tahtalı–Seferihisar sub-basin in Turkey, where water stress is expected in the future. Using the WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning System) model, the hydrological (precipitation, flow, evaporation) data of important water resources for the basin and Izmir (Tahtalı, Seferihisar, Ürkmez, and Kavakdere Dams) were used to predict the availability of water resources in the future, and several possible scenarios for water demands/supplies were analyzed. The water budget balances projected in 2050 have been calculated by considering six different scenarios: Reference Scenario, Report Consumption Scenario, Optimistic Case Scenario, Pessimistic Case Scenario, Return Flow Scenario, and Various Forecast Scenario. The water balances that can be obtained in each scenario under various situations were computed and compared. For all considered scenarios, unmet water demand in the basin is found to be significant (157.52 hm3 in the Optimistic Case Scenario and 373.16 hm3 in the Pessimistic Case Scenario).

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Data availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

The authors express their gratitude to researchers from the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI).

Funding

No funding was received for conducting this study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Izmir Institute of Technology, Izmir, Turkey

    S. M. Karahan & S. Elçi

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  1. S. M. Karahan
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  2. S. Elçi
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Contributions

SMK analyzed the data, created the model on WEAP and prepared the necessary files for the model and transferred it to the model and drafted the manuscript. ŞE supervised the study and revised the manuscript.

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Correspondence to S. M. Karahan.

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Karahan, S.M., Elçi, S. Assessment of future water demand in a semiarid region of Turkey: a case study of Tahtali–Seferihisar Basin. Sustain. Water Resour. Manag. 9, 44 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40899-023-00817-2

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