Skip to main content
Log in

A Note on Modeling the Maxima of Lagos Rainfall

  • Published:
Annals of Data Science Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The Lagos annual maximum rainfall is modeled by the generalized extreme value distribution. Hydrologic risk measures like the probability of exceedance or recurrence, return period, and return level is given.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Holmes P (1985) Nigeria: giant of Africa. National Oil and Chemical Marketing Co. of Nigeria, Abuja

    Google Scholar 

  2. Hartley J, Potts J, Flew T, Cunningham S, Keane M, Banks J (eds) (2012) Key concepts in creative industries. Sage, Beverley Hills

    Google Scholar 

  3. Anheier HK, Isar YR (eds) (2012) Cultures and globalization: cities, cultural policy and governance. Sage, Beverley Hills

    Google Scholar 

  4. Cunningham S (2013) Hidden innovation: policy, industry and the creative sector. University of Queensland Press, Brisbane

    Google Scholar 

  5. Diop S, Barusseau JP, Descamps C (eds) (2014) The land/ocean interactions in the coastal zone of West and Central Africa. Springer, Berlin

    Google Scholar 

  6. Campbell J (2012) This is Africa’s new biggest city: Lagos, Nigeria, population 21 million. The Atlantic, Washington DC. Retrieved 23 Sept 2012

  7. Nwagwu I, Oni T (2015) Lagos and its potentials for economic growth. 2 July 2015, Retrieved 26 Oct 2015. https://ng.boell.org/2015/07/02/lagos-and-its-potentials-economic-growth

  8. Lees L, Shin HB, Lopez-Morales E (eds) (2015) Global gentrifications: uneven development and displacement. Policy Press, Bristol

    Google Scholar 

  9. Rajewski B (1999) Cities of the world: a compilation of current information on cultural, geographical, and political conditions in the countries and cities of six continents, based on the Department of State’s. Gale Research Co, Farmington Hills

    Google Scholar 

  10. Ayoade JO, Akintola FO (1980) Public perception of flood hazard in two Nigerian cities. Environ Int 4(4):277–280

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Israel AO (2017) Nature, the built environment and perennial flooding in Lagos, Nigeria: the 2012 flood as a case study. Urban Clim 21:218–231

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Mallikarjuna P, Jyothy SA, Hemanath K (2011) Probability distribution analysis of maximum hourly ranifall intensity—a case study. Hydrol J 34(1&2):42–49

    Google Scholar 

  13. Mayooran T, Laheetharan A (2014) The statistical distribution of annual maximum rainfall in Colombo District. Sri Lankan J Appl Stat 15(2):107–130

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Yusof F, Hui-Mean F (2012) Use of statistical distribution for drought analysis. Appl Math Sci 6(21):1031–1051

    Google Scholar 

  15. Chikobvu D, Chifurira R (2015) Modelling of extreme minimum rainfall using generalised extreme value distribution for Zimbabwe. S Afr J Sci 111(9–10):01–08

    Google Scholar 

  16. Sharma MA, Singh JB (2010) Use of probability distribution in rainfall analysis. NY Sci J 3(9):40–49

    Google Scholar 

  17. Nadarajah S, Choi D (2007) Maximum daily rainfall in South Korea. J Earth Syst Sci 116(4):311–320

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Agbonaye AI, Izinyon OC (2017) Best-fit probability distribution model for rainfall frequency analysis of three cities in south eastern Nigeria. Niger. J. Environ. Sci. Technol 1(1):34–42

    Google Scholar 

  19. Anandan V (2014) Comparison of probability distributions for frequency analysis of annual maximum rainfall. IJRIT 1(3):50–55

    Google Scholar 

  20. Ho MK, Yusof F (2013) Determination of best-fit distribution and rainfall events in Damansara and Kelantan, Malaysia. Matematika 29:43–52

    Google Scholar 

  21. Li Z, Li Z, Zhao W, Wang Y (2015) Probability modeling of precipitation extremes over two river basins in northwest of China. Adv Meteorol. https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/374127

    Google Scholar 

  22. Koutsoyiannis D, Baloutsos G (2000) Analysis of a long record of annual maximum rainfall in Athens, Greece, and design rainfall inferences. Nat Hazards 22(1):29–48

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Koutsoyiannis D (2004) Statistics of extremes and estimation of extreme rainfall: II. Empirical investigation of long rainfall records/Statistiques de valeurs extrémes et estimation de précipitations extrêmes: II. Recherche empirique sur de longues séries de précipitations. Hydrol Sci J 49(4):591–610

    Google Scholar 

  24. Li Y, Cai W, Campbell EP (2005) Statistical modeling of extreme rainfall in southwest western Australia. J Clim 18(6):852–863

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Nadarajah S (2005) Extremes of daily rainfall in West Central Florida. Clim Change 69(2):325–342

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Fisher RA, Tippett LHC (1928) Limiting forms of the frequency distribution of the largest or smallest member of a sample. In: Mathematical proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, vol 24, no. 2. Cambridge University Press, pp 180–190, Apr 1928

  27. Kotz S, Nadarajah S (2000) Extreme value distributions: theory and applications. World Scientific, Singapore

    Book  Google Scholar 

  28. Beirlant J, Goegebeur Y, Segers J, Teugels J (2006) Statistics of extremes: theory and applications. Wiley, London

    Google Scholar 

  29. Leadbetter MR, Lindgren G, Rootzén H (2012) Extremes and related properties of random sequences and processes. Springer, Berlin

    Google Scholar 

  30. Coles S, Bawa J, Trenner L, Dorazio P (2001) An introduction to statistical modeling of extreme values, vol 208. Springer, London

    Book  Google Scholar 

  31. de Haan L, Ferreira A (2007) Extreme value theory: an introduction. Springer, Berlin

    Google Scholar 

  32. Cramér H (1928) On the composition of elementary errors. Almqvist & Wiksells, Stockholm

    Google Scholar 

  33. Von Mises R (1928) Stat Wahrh. Julius Springer, Berlin

    Google Scholar 

  34. Anderson TW, Darling DA (1952) Asymptotic theory of certain “goodness of fit” criteria based on stochastic processes. Ann Math Stat 23:193–212

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. Wilcox R (1998) Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. In: Armitage P, Colton T (eds) Encyclopedia of biostatistics, vol 3. Wiley, Chichester, pp 2174–2176

  36. Liao M, Shimokawa T (1999) A new goodness-of-fit test for type-I extreme-value and 2-parameter Weibull distributions with estimated parameters. Optimization 64(1):23–48

    Google Scholar 

  37. Cox DR, Stuart A (1955) Some quick sign test for trend in location and dispersion. Biometrika 42:80–95

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric test against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259

    Article  Google Scholar 

  39. Kendall M (1990) Rank correlation methods, 5th edn. Oxford University Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  40. Wald A, Wolfowitz J (1940) On a test whether two samples are from the same population. Ann Math Stat 11:147–162. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177731909

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. Moore GH, Wallis WA (1943) Time series significance tests based on signs of differences. J Am Stat Assoc 38:153–154

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. Bartels R (1982) The rank version of von Neumann’s ratio test for randomness. J Am Stat Assoc 77(377):40–46

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. Soukissian TH, Tsalis C (2015) The effect of the generalized extreme value distribution parameter estimation methods in extreme wind speed prediction. Nat Hazards 78(3):1777–1809

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors are thankful to the Editor and reviewers for their careful reading, invaluable comments, and suggestions which significantly improved the paper.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to I. E. Okorie.

Appendix

Appendix

See Fig. 5 and Table 7.

Fig. 5
figure 5

Source: Google map

Map showing some African countries and their major cities. The map includes Nigeria (locations of some major cities in Nigeria are indicated and they include Abuja (Nigeria’s capital), Lagos (our study region), Port Harcourt, Ibadan, and Kano).

Table 7 Lagos rainfall data (mm) from January 1983 to December 2012.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Okorie, I.E., Akpanta, A.C., Ohakwe, J. et al. A Note on Modeling the Maxima of Lagos Rainfall. Ann. Data. Sci. 6, 341–359 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40745-018-0161-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40745-018-0161-4

Keywords

Navigation