Abstract
The literature on electoral system change has focused on the motivations of the political actors who initiate these legislative processes. However, less is known about how contextual factors impact electoral reform approval. The Portuguese case is especially interesting for investigating this question. In the 38-year period studied in this article, only one reduction in the number of MPs and two amendments to the rules governing changes in the electoral system occurred, despite the 11 episodes in which political parties attempted to reform the electoral system. Using a strategy that prioritizes the contextualized analysis of a long period, the goal is to explore the mechanisms—barriers and catalysts—that underlie reform and non-reform. We conclude that the maintenance of the status quo is the result of the combined effectiveness of the barriers—high constitutional and legal barriers, as well as inter and intra-party veto players—and the ineffectiveness of the catalysts—the electoral system ensured political and electoral stability, while simultaneously lowering the risks faced by the main political parties—during the analysed period. We also conclude that the extreme results obtained in the intra-party dimension of the electoral system, which has been the driving force behind the country’s debate on electoral reform, are the only exception to this trend.
Zusammenfassung
Die Literatur über die Änderung von Wahlsystemen hat sich auf die Motivationen der politischen Akteure konzentriert, die diese Gesetzgebungsprozesse einleiten. Es ist jedoch weniger darüber bekannt, wie kontextuelle Faktoren die Zustimmung zu Wahlreformen beeinflussen. Der portugiesische Fall ist besonders interessant, um diese Frage zu untersuchen. Im Untersuchungszeitraum von 38 Jahren kam es nur einmal zu einer Verringerung der Zahl der Abgeordneten und zu zwei Änderungen der Regeln für die Genehmigung von Wahlreformen, obwohl es elf Versuche von politischen Parteien zu Änderungen gab. Mit Hilfe einer Strategie, bei der die kontextbezogene Analyse eines langen Zeitraums im Vordergrund steht, werden die Mechanismen – Hindernisse und Katalysatoren – untersucht, die hinter Reformen bzw. Nicht-Reformen stehen. Im Ergebnis ist die Aufrechterhaltung des Status quo die Folge der kombinierten Wirksamkeit der Barrieren – hohe verfassungsrechtliche und gesetzliche Hürden sowie Vetospieler zwischen und innerhalb der Parteien – und der Unwirksamkeit der Katalysatoren. Das Wahlsystem sorgte für politische und wahlpolitische Stabilität, während es gleichzeitig die Risiken für die wichtigsten Parteien im betrachteten Zeitraum verringerte. Wir kommen auch zu dem Schluss, dass die einzige Ausnahme die extremen Ergebnisse waren, die in der innerparteilichen Dimension der Wahlsysteme erzielt wurden, was die treibende Kraft hinter der Reformdebatte im Land war.
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Notes
Available in Renwick & Pilet (2016) up to 2009 and collected by the authors for the period between 2010 and 2019, using data retrieved on 21/08/2022 from the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (https://www.electionguide.org/) and the Interparliamentary Union (http://archive.ipu.org/).
France, Ireland, Luxembourg, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, and the UK.
Ireland, Luxembourg, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, and the UK.
An episode may arise from and be composed of several legislative proposals and/or initiatives recommending electoral reform, which are submitted by political parties in parliament. This option is supported by the legislative process’s organization in Portugal: if there are several initiatives aimed at amending the electoral law, they can be grouped and discussed together, allowing only one proposal, the result of negotiations and votes in parliamentary committees, to reach the voting stage in plenary. Episodes begin when one or more legislative proposals are introduced with the intent of changing the electoral institution.
Also, Romania and Spain.
The available search engine was used to identify legislative processes—https://www.parlamento.pt/ActividadeParlamentar/Paginas/IniciativasLegislativas.aspx—using the following keywords: Eleitor (Voter); Partido (Party); Eleição/Eleições (Election/Election); Eleitoral (Electoral); Recenseamento (Voter registration); Paridade (Parity); Voto/Votação (Vote/Voting).
“Chega quer mudar Constituição para reduzir deputados” (Chega wants to change the Constitution to reduce MPs), i, 13/03/2020, available in https://ionline.sapo.pt/artigo/688902/chega-quer-mudar-constituicao-para-reduzir-deputados?seccao=Portugal_i.
A full description of the proposals made by the political parties can be found in the appendix.
We distinguish between multiple-tiered electoral systems. First, we have mix systems (MM), which can be MMP or MMM (parallel systems), with SMD in the lower tier and MMD in the upper tier(s). Second, there are MTS that only have MMD in the lower and upper tiers. The desideratum for personalization is enforced in the lower tier by a low district magnitude, as well as preferential voting.
For further details about this proposal, see Meirinho (2004, p. 320).
X legislature.
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Carvalho, R., Freire, A. Barriers (and catalysts) of institutional change: The (almost) non-reform of the Portuguese electoral system (1983–2021). Z Vgl Polit Wiss 16, 381–404 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12286-022-00544-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12286-022-00544-6