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Reliability Evaluation of Two-Phase Degradation Process with a Fuzzy Change-Point

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Abstract

For some products, degradation mechanisms change during testing, and therefore, their degradation patterns vary at different points in time; these points are called change-points. Owing to the limitation of measurement costs, time intervals for degradation measurements are usually very long, and thus, the value of change-points cannot be determined. Conventionally, a certain degradation measurement is selected as the change-point in a two-phase degradation process. According to the tendency of the two-phase degradation process, the change-point is probably located in the interval between two neighboring degradation measurements, and it is a fuzzy variable. The imprecision of the change-point may lead to the incorrect product’s reliability evaluation results. In this paper, based on the fuzzy theory, a two-phase degradation model with a fuzzy change-point and a statistical analysis method are proposed. First, a two-phase Wiener degradation model is developed according to the membership function of the change-point. Second, the reliability evaluation is carried out using maximum likelihood estimation and a fuzzy simulation approach. Finally, the proposed methodology is verified via a case study. The results of the study show that the proposed methodology can achieve more believable reliability evaluation results compared with those of the conventional approach.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Technology and Engineering Center for Space Utilization, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100094, China

    Kai Liu  (刘凯), Wei Dang  (党炜), Tianji Zou  (邹田骥), Congmin Lü  (吕从民), Peng Li  (李鹏) & Haitao Zhang  (张海涛)

  2. Chinese Academy of Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Tianji Zou  (邹田骥) & Peng Li  (李鹏)

Authors
  1. Kai Liu  (刘凯)
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  2. Wei Dang  (党炜)
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  3. Tianji Zou  (邹田骥)
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  4. Congmin Lü  (吕从民)
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  5. Peng Li  (李鹏)
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  6. Haitao Zhang  (张海涛)
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Tianji Zou  (邹田骥).

Additional information

Foundation item: the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 61703391)

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Liu, K., Dang, W., Zou, T. et al. Reliability Evaluation of Two-Phase Degradation Process with a Fuzzy Change-Point. J. Shanghai Jiaotong Univ. (Sci.) 27, 867–872 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12204-021-2323-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12204-021-2323-3

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