Abstract
Recent studies have shown that Americans appear to be increasingly owning and carrying firearms for personal protection, and are increasingly storing their firearms loaded. However, the prevalence of firearm carry and/or storage behaviors with a round chambered has not hitherto been studied in any context, including among airline passengers. We analyze firearms detected at Transportation Security Administration (TSA) airport security check-points between 2012 to 2017, to examine geospatial and temporal trends in the prevalence of unsafe arming configuration in detected firearms. The fraction of detected firearms found to be loaded has risen significantly since 2012, with 3.9% [1.2%, 6.7%] relative increase in odds per year (Beta Binomial regression, p = 0.011). States with firearm child access prevention laws have significantly fewer firearms found by the TSA to be loaded (p = 0.039). The fraction of loaded firearms found by the TSA to also have a round chambered has also risen significantly since 2012, with 5.3% [2.7%,7.9%] relative increase in odds per year (Beta Binomial regression, p < 0.001). By 2017, 36% of firearms found loaded were also found to have a round chambered. Some Americans appear to be increasingly using and storing firearms in unsafe arming configurations. This poses potential risks to airport security personnel and other travelers in airports. Understanding the geospatial patterns in these risks can help guide optimization of regional screening practices and optimal economical allocation of TSA resources.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
All data associated with this analysis can be found off of the GitHub repository at https://bit.ly/2KfjeyO and https://bit.ly/336FDH0.
References
Fowler KA, Dahlberg LL, Haileyesus T, et al. (2015) Firearm injuries in the United States. Prev. Med. (Baltim). 79, 5–14. Elsevier
Grinshteyn E & Hemenway D (2016) Violent death rates: the US compared with other high-income OECD countries, 2010. Am. J. Med. 129, 266–273. Elsevier
Richardson EG & Hemenway D (2011) Homicide, suicide, and unintentional firearm fatality: comparing the United States with other high-income countries, 2003. J. Trauma Acute Care Surg. 70, 238–243. LWW
Shah S, Hoffman RE, Wake L, et al. (2000) Adolescent suicide and household access to firearms in Colorado: results of a case-control study. J. Adolesc. Heal. 26, 157–163. Elsevier
Webster DW & Starnes M (2000) Reexamining the association between child access prevention gun laws and unintentional shooting deaths of children. Pediatrics 106, 1466–1469. Am Acad pediatrics
Miller M, Lippmann SJ, Azrael D, et al. (2007a) Household firearm ownership and rates of suicide across the 50 United States. J. Trauma Acute Care Surg. 62, 1029–1035. LWW
Miller M, Hemenway D & Azrael D (2007b) State-level homicide victimization rates in the US in relation to survey measures of household firearm ownership, 2001--2003. Soc. Sci. Med. 64, 656–664. Elsevier
Andrés AR & Hempstead K (2011) Gun control and suicide: The impact of state firearm regulations in the United States, 1995--2004. Health Policy (New. York). 101, 95–103. Elsevier
Conwell Y, Duberstein PR, Connor K, et al. (2002) Access to firearms and risk for suicide in middle-aged and older adults. Am. J. Geriatr. Psychiatry 10, 407–416. Elsevier
Shenassa ED, Rogers ML, Spalding KL, et al. (2004) Safer storage of firearms at home and risk of suicide: a study of protective factors in a nationally representative sample. J. Epidemiol. Community Heal. 58, 841–848. BMJ publishing group ltd.
Miller M, Azrael D, Hemenway D, et al. (2005) Firearm storage practices and rates of unintentional firearm deaths in the United States. Accid. Anal. Prev. 37, 661–667. Elsevier
Morgan ER, Gomez A & Rowhani-Rahbar A (2018) Firearm Ownership, Storage Practices, and Suicide Risk Factors in Washington State, 2013--2016. Am. J. Public Health 108, 882–888. American Public Health Association
Okoro CA, Nelson DE, Mercy JA, et al. (2005) Prevalence of household firearms and firearm-storage practices in the 50 states and the {D}istrict of {C}olumbia: findings from the {B}ehavioral {R}isk {F}actor {S}urveillance {S}ystem, 2002. Pediatrics 116, e370--e376. Am Acad Pediatrics
Johnson RM, Miller M, Vriniotis M, et al. (2006) Are household firearms stored less safely in homes with adolescents?: analysis of a national random sample of parents. Arch. Pediatr. Adolesc. Med. 160, 788–792. American Medical Association
Azrael D, Cohen J, Salhi C, et al. (2018) Firearm storage in gun-owning households with children: results of a 2015 national survey. J. urban Heal. 95, 295–304. Springer
Jacobson SH (2012) Watching through the “I” s of aviation security. J. Transp. Secur. 5, 35–38. Springer
Miller M, Azrael D & Hemenway D (2002) Household firearm ownership and suicide rates in the United States. Epidemiology 13, 517–524. LWW
Miller M, Azrael D, Hepburn L, et al. (2006) The association between changes in household firearm ownership and rates of suicide in the United States, 1981--2002. Inj. Prev. 12, 178–182. BMJ Publishing Group Ltd.
Azrael D, Cook PJ & Miller M (2004) State and local prevalence of firearms ownership measurement, structure, and trends. J. Quant. Criminol. 20, 43–62. Springer
Kalesan B, Mobily ME, Keiser O, et al. (2016) Firearm legislation and firearm mortality in the USA: a cross-sectional, state-level study. Lancet 387, 1847–1855. Elsevier
Lloyd-Smith JO (2007) Maximum likelihood estimation of the negative binomial dispersion parameter for highly overdispersed data, with applications to infectious diseases. PLoS One 2, e180. Public library of science
Hughes G & Madden L V (1993) Using the beta-binomial distribution to describe aggregated patterns of disease incidence. Phytopathol. 7
Osgood DW (2000) Poisson-based regression analysis of aggregate crime rates. J. Quant. Criminol. 16, 21–43. Springer
Coughlin CC, Cohen JP, Khan SR, et al. (2002) Aviation security and terrorism: a review of the economic issues. Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Gillen D & Morrison WG (2015) Aviation security: costing, pricing, finance and performance. J. Air Transp. Manag. 48, 1–12. Elsevier
Gillen D & Morrison WG (2017) Economic perspectives on aviation security. In Air Transp. Lib. Edward Elgar Publishing
Tamasi G & Demichela M (2011) Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 96, 892–899. Elsevier
van Boekhold J, Faghri A & Li M (2014) Evaluating security screening checkpoints for domestic flights using a general microscopic simulation model. J. Transp. Secur. 7, 45–67. Springer
Sakano R, Obeng K & Fuller K (2016) Airport security and screening satisfaction: a case study of US. J. Air Transp. Manag. 55, 129–138. Elsevier
Prickett KC, Martin-Storey A & Crosnoe R (2014) State firearm laws, firearm ownership, and safety practices among families of preschool-aged children. Am. J. Public Health 104, 1080–1086. American public health association
Leese M (2013) Blurring the dimensions of privacy? Law enforcement and trusted traveler programs. Comput. Law Secur. Rev. 29, 480–490. Elsevier
Frimpong A (2011) Introduction of full body image scanners at the airports: a delicate balance of protecting privacy and ensuring national security. J. Transp. Secur. 4, 221–229. Springer
Leese M (2014) The new profiling: algorithms, black boxes, and the failure of anti-discriminatory safeguards in the European Union. Secur. Dialogue 45, 494–511. Sage publications sage UK: London, England
Smith TW & Son J (2015) Trends in gun ownership in the United States, 1972–2014. Gen. Soc. Surv. Final Report. Chicago Univ. Chicago NORC
Center PR (2013) Why own a gun? Protection is now top reason. Author Washington, DC
Bagalman E, Caldwell SW, Finklea KM, et al. (2013) Public mass shootings in the United States: selected implications for federal public health and safety policy. Congr. Res. Serv
Weil DS & Hemenway D (1992) Loaded guns in the home: analysis of a national random survey of gun owners. Jama 267, 3033–3037. American Medical Association
Lott JR, Whitley JE & Riley RC (2015) Concealed carry permit holders across the United States.
Wallace LN (2015) Responding to violence with guns: mass shootings and gun acquisition. Soc. Sci. J. 52, 156–167. Elsevier
Studdert DM, Zhang Y, Rodden JA, et al. (2017) Handgun acquisitions in California after two mass shootings. Ann. Intern. Med. Am Coll Physicians
Felson RB & Pare P-P (2010) Gun cultures or honor cultures? Explaining regional and race differences in weapon carrying. Soc. forces 88, 1357–1378. Oxford University press
Regulation A (1993) Carrying of firearms and use of Force for law enforcement and security duties.
Pink CK & Ornelas MsG BY ORDER OF THE AIR FORCE INSTRUCTION 31–207 SECRETARY OF THE AIR FORCE 1 JUNE 2006 Security ARMING AND USE OF FORCE BY AIR FORCE PERSONNEL.
Crifasi CK, Doucette ML, McGinty EE, et al. (2018) Storage practices of US gun owners in 2016. Am. J. Public Health 108, 532–537. American public health association
Rowhani-Rahbar A, Lyons VH, Simonetti JA, et al. (2018) Formal firearm training among adults in the USA: results of a national survey. Inj. Prev. 24, 161–165. BMJ publishing group ltd.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
ST conceived of the analysis. ST and RC performed data collation. All authors participated in interpretation and analysis of the data, and in writing the manuscript.
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Towers, S., Amdouni, B., Cordova, R. et al. The rising prevalence of weapons in unsafe arming configurations discovered in American airports. J Transp Secur 14, 1–18 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12198-020-00214-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12198-020-00214-2