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Modelling potential distribution of a pine bark beetle in Mexican temperate forests using forecast data and spatial analysis tools

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Abstract

Accurate and reliable predictions of pest species distributions in forest ecosystems are urgently needed by forest managers to develop management plans and monitor new areas of potential establishment. Presence-only species distribution models are commonly used in these evaluations. The maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) has gained popularity for modelling species distribution. Here, MaxEnt was used to model the spatial distribution of the Mexican pine bark beetle (Dendroctonus mexicanus) in a daily fashion by using forecast data from the Weather Research and Forecasting model. This study aimed to exploit freely available geographic and environmental data and software and thus provide a pathway to overcome the lack of costly data and technical guidance that are a challenge to implementing national monitoring and management strategies in developing countries. Our results showed overall agreement values between 60 and 87%. The results of this research can be used for D. mexicanus monitoring and management and may aid as a model to monitor similar species.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are very grateful for comments and suggestions from two anonymous reviewers who helped improve the original manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Conservation and Enhancement of Forest Ecosystems, National Institute of Forestry, Agriculture and Livestock Research, Progreso 5, 04010, Coyoacan Mexico City, Mexico

    Antonio González-Hernández, Martin Enrique Romero-Sánchez & Ramiro Pérez-Miranda

  2. Geography Department, The National Autonomous University of Mexico, Universidad 3000, 04010, Coyoacan Mexico City, Mexico

    Rene Morales-Villafaña & Brenda Islas-Trejo

Authors
  1. Antonio González-Hernández
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  2. Rene Morales-Villafaña
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  3. Martin Enrique Romero-Sánchez
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  4. Brenda Islas-Trejo
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  5. Ramiro Pérez-Miranda
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Martin Enrique Romero-Sánchez.

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The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Project funding: The National Institute for Forestry, Agriculture and Livestock Research of Mexico funded this study through a research Grant No. 2013181125.

The online version is available at http://www.springerlink.com

Corresponding editor: Chai Ruihai.

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González-Hernández, A., Morales-Villafaña, R., Romero-Sánchez, M.E. et al. Modelling potential distribution of a pine bark beetle in Mexican temperate forests using forecast data and spatial analysis tools. J. For. Res. 31, 649–659 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11676-018-0858-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11676-018-0858-4

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