Abstract
This discussion note offers a preliminary analysis of what recent developments in human germline gene editing tell us about the effectiveness of speculative and anticipatory modes of techno-ethics. It argues that the benefits of speculative discussions are difficult to detect thus far, and that pushing the focal point of ethical discourse well ahead of the current state of technology may prematurely undermine existing norms long before a broad consensus would justify moving beyond them.
Notes
The problem identified by David Collingridge is that attempts to control the social effects of a new technology face an inverse relationship between knowledge and agency. When a technology is new it may be easy to implement policies to control it, but we do not yet know what its problematic effects are; once it does come into wide use and negative social consequences become apparent, implementing effective policy responses becomes far more difficult [3]. Although some have claimed that speculative ethics can prepare society to respond (just in case a given technology produces the very effects that ethicists anticipate) [4], there is no evidence that this would be any more effective than an incrementalist approach that is responsive to technologies as they are developed and come into use. To be clear, this does not bear on the work of ethicists working on upstream development processes (such as engineering moral values into AI systems), but this has not been an approach taken within speculative bioethics, which usually asks what we ought to do with a given technology once it arrives.
In the field of technology assessment, by contrast, and in related discourses, these considerations have played a significant role in shaping how socio-technical futures are approached.
I use the term “anticipatory” to specify a subset of the discourse that, while speculative in nature, is focused on technologies that are expected in the nearer term and which tends to be more policy-oriented.
Juengst claims that this is a misinterpretation of the document so long as its calls for public engagement and multiple stakeholder input are taken seriously [18]. However, what his analysis really points to is the existence of two different voices within the report. The first, supporting limited therapeutic germline editing at some future point, offers expert policy guidance in the same vein as many previous reports. The second voice reflects a countervailing approach critical of these top-down regimes of expertise. The tension between these two approaches underlies what some see as a core unresolved problem for public bioethics [19].
To be sure, a range of factors that that led professional bioethics toward the acceptance of somatic interventions in 1982 also served to make the eventual acceptance of germline engineering something of an inevitability [25].
See for example the discussion about a “Global Genome Editing Observatory.” [27] If such projects successfully orient themselves toward “observing” the evolving present rather than anticipating the future (as ELSI-style research often has), this would mark a significant development in how bioethics initiatives keyed to specific emerging technologies structure their goals.
Various possibilities are briefly explored in [5]; as discussed elsewhere, a more fundamental question is how a forward-looking “prophetic” mode of bioethics concerned with the ends pursued via biomedicine and a “regulatory” policy-oriented mode of bioethics discourse can complement one another [29].
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Schick, A. What Counts as “Success” in Speculative and Anticipatory Ethics? Lessons from the Advent of Germline Gene Editing. Nanoethics 13, 261–267 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11569-019-00350-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11569-019-00350-7