Abstract
The impacts of climate change and human activities on the surface runoff were analyzed by the Mann–Kendall and trend analysis methods based on the hydrological, meteorological and socioeconomic data over the last 50 years in the Tarim River basin. Results show that the runoff in the headstreams increased but that in the mainstreams decreased significantly during the past 50 years. The former is a response to climate change, and the later is due to human activities. The surface runoff in the mainstreams decreased by 41.59, 63.77 and 75.15% in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, respectively, as compared to that without being disturbed by human activities in the same period. The main human activities are the irrigated agriculture combined with population increase in the region. As a consequence, the ecosystem in the lower reaches of Tarim River has degenerated, largely owing to inappropriate allocation of water resources.
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Acknowledgements
This work is financially supported by the Key Project of Knowledge Innovative of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (kzcx2-yw-127), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 90502004 and 40671014), National Scientific and Technological Support Project (2006BAC01A03) and the National Basic Research Program of China (2004CB720201). The authors would like to acknowledge the help of them. Special thanks are owed to editors and anonymous reviewers whose comments helped to improve the paper.
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Hao, X., Chen, Y., Xu, C. et al. Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Surface Runoff in the Tarim River Basin over the Last Fifty Years. Water Resour Manage 22, 1159–1171 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-007-9218-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-007-9218-4