Abstract
For evacuations, people must make the critical decision to evacuate or stay followed by a multi-dimensional choice composed of concurrent decisions of their departure time, transportation mode, route, destination, and shelter type. These choices have important impacts on transportation response and evacuation outcomes. While extensive research has been conducted on hurricane evacuation behavior, little is known about wildfire evacuation behavior. To address this critical research gap, particularly related to joint choice-making in wildfires, we surveyed individuals impacted by the 2017 December Southern California Wildfires (n = 226) and the 2018 Carr Wildfire (n = 284). Using these data, we contribute to the literature in two key ways. First, we develop two latent class choice models (LCCMs) to evaluate the factors that influence the decision to evacuate or stay/defend. We find an evacuation keen class and an evacuation reluctant class that are influenced differently by mandatory evacuation orders. This nuance is further supported by different membership of people to the classes based on demographics and risk perceptions. Second, we develop two portfolio choice models (PCMs), which jointly model choice dimensions to assess multi-dimensional evacuation choice. We find several similarities between wildfires including a joint preference for within-county and nighttime evacuations and a joint dislike for within-county and highway evacuations. Altogether, this paper provides evidence of heterogeneity in response to mandatory evacuation orders for wildfires, distinct membership of populations to different classes of people for evacuating or staying/defending, and clear correlation among key wildfire evacuation choices that necessitates joint modeling to holistically understanding wildfire evacuation behavior.
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Data availability
Data used for this study can be accessed through Zenodo at the following links. Wong, S., Walker, J., & Shaheen, S. (2021). 2017 December California Wildfires Evacuation Survey Data. Embargoed until July 2021. http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4407730. Wong, S., Walker, J., & Shaheen, S. (2021). 2018 Carr Wildfire Evacuation Survey Data. Embargoed until July 2021. http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4408243
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Acknowledgements
This study was made possible through funding received by the University of California Institute of Transportation Studies from the State of California via the Public Transportation Account and the Road Repair and Accountability Act of 2017 (Senate Bill 1). The authors would like to thank the State of California for its support of university-based research, and especially for the funding received for this project. The ability to explore this research topic was made possible through generous funding from the Dwight D. Eisenhower Transportation Fellowship Program (DDETFP), which is administered by the Federal Highway Administration. The authors would like to thank the US Department of Transportation and Federal Highway Administration for their support of this research. The opportunity to explore this topic was also made possible by the Graduate Research Fellowship Program, which is administered by the National Science Foundation. The Transportation Sustainability Research Center at the University of California Berkeley also provided generous support to this research. The authors would also like to thank the many local agencies and community organizations across California for their assistance in distributing the surveys. Finally, the authors thank the three anonymous reviewers for their thoughtful and constructive insights and comments to improve the paper.
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SW: conceptualization, methodology, formal analysis, investigation, data curation, writing—original draft preparation, writing—reviewing and editing, project administration, funding acquisition. JB: investigation, writing—original draft preparation, writing—reviewing and editing. JW: conceptualization, investigation, writing—reviewing and editing. SS: conceptualization, investigation, writing—reviewing and editing, supervision, funding acquisition.
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Wong, S.D., Broader, J.C., Walker, J.L. et al. Understanding California wildfire evacuee behavior and joint choice making. Transportation 50, 1165–1211 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-022-10275-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-022-10275-y