Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Subnational Population Projections by Age: An Evaluation of Combined Forecast Techniques

  • Published:
Population Research and Policy Review Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Population projections commonly suffer from a decreasing accuracy with a higher degree of disaggregation. We suggest combining the cohort-component model and an averaged projection technique to improve precision of forecasts for small areas. Calculating ex-post population projections, we evaluate the precision and bias of the proposed method by contrasting error patterns of commonly used techniques using official population data from 46 districts of a German state for the years 1980–2013. In comparison to the individual methods considered, the combined approach results in the highest accuracy and lowest bias both for the total population and for age groups. The proposed method is also more robust regarding past growth.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Clemen, R. T. (1989). Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography. International Journal of Forecasting, 5(4), 559–583.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • de Beer, J., & Deerenberg, I. (2007). An explanatory model for projecting regional fertility differences in the Netherlands. Population Research and Policy Review, 26(5), 511–528.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goodwin, P. (2009). New evidence on the value of combining forecasts. Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2009(12), 33–35.

    Google Scholar 

  • Isserman, A. M. (1993). The right people, the right rates: Making population estimates and forecasts with an interregional cohort-component model. Journal of the American Planning Association, 59(1), 45–64.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keilman, N. (1998). How accurate are the united nations world population projections? Population and Development Review, 24, 15–41.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Preston, S. H., Heuveline, P., & Guillot, M. (2001). Demography: Measuring and modeling population processes. Oxford: Blackwell Publishing.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rayer, S. (2008). Population forecast errors: A primer for planners. Journal of Planning Education and Research, 27(4), 417–430.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rayer, S., & Smith, S. K. (2010). Factors affecting the accuracy of subcounty population forecasts. Journal of Planning Education and Research, 30(2), 147–161.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rees, P. H. (1979). Regional population project models and accounting methods. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 142(2), 223–255.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shryock, H., Siegel, J., and associates (1980). The Methods and Materials of Demography. Bureau of the Census: Department of Commerce.

  • Smith, S. K. (1987). Tests of forecast accuracy and bias for county population projections. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 82(400), 991–1003.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith, S. K., & Sincich, T. (1990). The relationship between the length of the base period and population forecast errors. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 85(410), 367–375.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith, S. K., & Sincich, T. (1992). Forecasting state and household populations: Evaluating the forecast accuracy and bias of alternative population projections for states. International Journal of Forecasting, 8, 495–508.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith, S. K., & Tayman, J. (2003). An evaluation of population projections by age. Demography, 40(4), 741–757.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Statistisches Bundesamt. (2011). Modell der bevölkerungsvorausberechnungen. Statistisches Bundesamt: Discussion Paper.

  • Stoto, M. (1983). The accuracy of population projections. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 78(381), 13–20.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tukey, J. W. (1977). Exploratory data analysis. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.

    Google Scholar 

  • U. S. Census Bureau. (2012). Methodology and assumptions for the 2012 national projections. Discussion Paper, U.S: Census Bureau.

  • Wilson, T. (2012). Forecast accuracy and uncertainty of australian bureau of statistics state and territory population projections. International Journal of Population Research, 2012. Article ID 419824.

  • Wilson, T. (2014). New evaluations of simple models for small area population forecasts. Population, Space and Place. Forthcoming.

  • Wilson, T., & Rowe, F. (2011). The forecast accuracy of local government area population projections: A case study of queensland. Australasian Journal of Regional Studies, 17(2), 204–243.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. NIW Hannover & Leibniz Universität Hannover, Königstraße 53, 30175, Hannover, Germany

    Mario Reinhold & Stephan L. Thomsen

Authors
  1. Mario Reinhold
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Stephan L. Thomsen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Stephan L. Thomsen.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Reinhold, M., Thomsen, S.L. Subnational Population Projections by Age: An Evaluation of Combined Forecast Techniques. Popul Res Policy Rev 34, 593–613 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-015-9362-0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-015-9362-0

Keywords

Search

Navigation