Abstract
Many structural factors influence energy regimes at the national and international level, including development/affluence, population size, and oil prices. In this study, we use Duncan’s ecological complex (aka “POET” model) to theorize about the many structural factors that shape national energy usage. Employing one of the largest samples ever used for this purpose (from 1970 to 2000/N = 98/2,263 case-years), coupled with fixed effects to hold constant both unique temporal events and country attributes (e.g., oil embargoes, land area, climate), our pooled time-series analysis suggests that population, social organization, the external social environment (i.e., globalization), and specific technologies are all important dimensions in how the nations of the world use their energy resources. More specifically, while we found that population size, automotive dependence, and global trade increase both total use and energy intensity, other factors such as development, large-scale urbanization, and global oil prices usually lead to (relative) energy savings. We conclude with implications for public policy and further academic study.
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Notes
POET: Population, Organization, Environment, Technology.
IPAT: impact = population × affluence × technology; STIRPAT: stochastic impacts by regression for population, affluence, and technology (York et al. 2003a, b). These models were formed to evaluate impacts by human activity upon the natural environment; in essence, they use the POET model by simplifying each block down its most basic component, whereas a more complete ecological approach should include a more expanded list of indicators.
The Jevons Paradox is based on the finding by Stanley Jevons in the late nineteenth century that the more efficient use of coal, due to improved furnaces, in the British Empire led to a rise in the overall usage; the paradox is applied by environmentalists and economists to such problems as congestion (more roads lead to more development and ultimately, more congestion) and gasoline consumption (more fuel efficient cars lead drivers to drive more, thus using more gasoline) (Foster 2003, 2009). There is recent evidence that the paradox (or rebound effect) may be actually be overestimated, leading to reduced energy use (based on trends in already developed countries) (Gillingham et al 2013).
An environmental Kuznets curve depicts environmental effects along an axis of wealth, e.g., deforestation and GDP per capita (Ehrhardt-Martinez et al. 2002; Roberts and Grimes 1997). The idea is that as poor nations develop, they will consume their natural resources (for economic growth) until they become wealthy enough that they no longer need to use those resources and can start protecting their environmental health; plotted out the effect is an inverted U-shape.
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Appendix: Countries in cross-national analysis
Appendix: Countries in cross-national analysis
Albania, Algeria, Angola, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Belgium, Benin, Bolivia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Cameroon, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Republic of the Congo, Costa Rica, Cote D’Ivoire, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Ghana, Greece, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Iran, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Republic of Korea, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lebanon, Lithuania, Macedonia, Malaysia, Mexico, Moldova, Morocco, Mozambique, Nepal, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Niger, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federation, Senegal, Slovak Republic, South Africa, Spain, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Sweden, Switzerland, Syria, Tanzania, Thailand, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, United States, Uruguay, Venezuela, Yugoslavia, Zambia, Zimbabwe.
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Scarrow, R.M., Crenshaw, E.M. The ecology of energy use: using the POET model to analyze consumption and intensity across nations 1970–2000. Popul Environ 36, 311–330 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-014-0220-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-014-0220-5