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An empirical model to predict arsenic pollution affected life expectancy

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Abstract

A robust, globally implementable and simple empirical model to predict the arsenic pollution affected life expectancy using a stepwise regression was developed. Life expectancy calculated using a life table technique requires crude death rates data that are not available for small administrative units, complex calculations and does not consider socioeconomic parameters. Hence, a model was needed to forecast the impact of arsenic pollution and socioeconomic parameters on life expectancy for locations with limited data availability. A linear multiple regression technique was used to develop an empirical model to predict arsenic pollution affected life expectancy at birth. The model was calibrated using nine arsenic polluted administrative blocks of district Murshidabad, West Bengal, India and tested independently for three other arsenic polluted blocks of the same district. The R 2 values for the plot of actual versus predicted life expectancy at birth were 0.98 for calibration, testing and independent validation. The model is complementary to the life table technique and offers a means to assist planning by public health engineers and health policy makers to mitigate arsenic pollution on a community priority basis.

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Acknowledgments

The authors acknowledge the support of Public Health Engineering Department (PHED) Murshidabad; District Land and Land Reforms Office (DL & LRO) Murshidabad; and Census of India, Directorate of Census Operations West Bengal for providing the relevant data required for the present research work. The authors appreciate Mr. Goutam Roychowdhury, Executive Engineer, Public Health Engineering Department (PHED) Murshidabad for providing the arsenic distribution data of the study area.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Indian School of Mines, Dhanbad, 826004, India

    S. R. Samadder

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560012, India

    D. Nagesh Kumar

  3. Agriculture and Food Science Centre, UCD School of Biosystems Engineering, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland

    N. M. Holden

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  1. S. R. Samadder
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  2. D. Nagesh Kumar
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  3. N. M. Holden
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Correspondence to S. R. Samadder.

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Samadder, S.R., Nagesh Kumar, D. & Holden, N.M. An empirical model to predict arsenic pollution affected life expectancy. Popul Environ 36, 219–233 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-014-0212-5

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