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Volcanic ash forecast during the June 2011 Cordón Caulle eruption

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Abstract

We modelled the transport and deposition of ash from the June 2011 eruption from Cordón Caulle volcanic complex, Chile. The modelling strategy, currently under development at the Argentinean Naval Hydrographic Service and National Meteorological Service, couples the weather research and forecasting (WRF/ARW) meteorological model with the FALL3D ash dispersal model. The strategy uses volcanological inputs inferred from satellite imagery, eruption reports and preliminary grain-size data obtained during the first days of the eruption from an Argentinean ash sample collection network. In this sense, the results shown here can be regarded as a quasi-syn-eruptive forecast for the first 16 days of the eruption. Although this article describes the modelling process in the aftermath of the crisis, the strategy was implemented from the beginning of the eruption, and results were made available to the Buenos Aires Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers and other end users. The model predicts ash cloud trajectories, concentration of ash at relevant flight levels, expected deposit thickness and ash accumulation rates at relevant localities. Here, we validate the modelling strategy by comparing results with satellite retrievals and syn-eruptive ground deposit measurements. Results highlight the goodness of the combined WRF/ARW-FALL3D forecasting system and point out the usefulness of coupling both models for short-term forecast of volcanic ash clouds.

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Acknowledgments

This work has been partially funded by Spanish Research Project ATMOST (CGL2009-10244), the CYTED thematic network CENIZA (410RT0392), and CONICET. AF is grateful to the Ramón y Cajal scientific programme. Simulations have been done at the facilities of the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC-CNS) using the MareNostrum supercomputer. The WRF/ARW-FALL3D modelling system was implemented in a cluster installed at the SMN with funds from the Argentinean project PIDDEF 41/10 which also support partly this research. We thank Diana M. Rodriguez and Silvana K. Bolzi from the HRPT Division (SMN), Claudio Iglesias (Piedra Grande S.A.), Graciela Massaferro (Centro Nacional Patagónico CENPAT–CONICET), Nilda Menegatti (Univ. de la Patagonia San Juan Bosco), Walter Baez (INENCO-CONICET), Rodolfo Ugarte (Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales, YPF), the Nahuel Huapi National Park rangers and Gendarmería from Villa La Angostura that made the Argentinean ash network work, providing the samples for grain-size analyses Dr. Eduardo Gómez (Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía, IADO-CONICET) for grain-size data, and Adrián Moyano for his advice on Mapuche language. Finally, we also thank Ma. Noel Serra, Valeria Outes, Débora Beigt and Ma. Andrea Dzendoletas (INIBIOMA, Universidad Nacional del Comahue). We thank to Comisión de Actividades Espaciales (CONAE) for the COSMO –SKYmed images. The comments from two anonymous referees improved the early version of this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Servicio de Hidrografía Naval (SHN) and Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Estela Collini & María Soledad Osores

  2. CASE Department, Barcelona Supercomputing Center-Centro Nacional de Supercomputación (BSC-CNS), Barcelona, Spain

    Arnau Folch

  3. INENCO-GEONORTE (UNSa-CONICET), Salta, Argentina

    José G. Viramonte

  4. INIBIOMA, CRUB (CONICET-Universidad Nacional del Comahue), Bariloche, Argentina

    Gustavo Villarosa

  5. CONAE, Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Graciela Salmuni

Authors
  1. Estela Collini
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  2. María Soledad Osores
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  3. Arnau Folch
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  4. José G. Viramonte
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  5. Gustavo Villarosa
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  6. Graciela Salmuni
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Correspondence to Estela Collini.

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Collini, E., Osores, M.S., Folch, A. et al. Volcanic ash forecast during the June 2011 Cordón Caulle eruption. Nat Hazards 66, 389–412 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0492-y

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