Abstract
Context
Due to the spatial heterogeneity of the disturbance regimes and community assemblages along topoclimatic gradients, the response of forest ecosystem to climate change varies at the landscape scale.
Objectives
Our objective was to quantify the possible changes in forest ecosystems and the relative effects of climate warming and fire regime changes in different topographic positions.
Methods
We used a spatially explicit model (LANDIS PRO) combined with a gap model (LINKAGES) to predict the possible response of boreal larch forests to climate and fire regime changes, and examined how this response would vary in different topographic positions.
Results
The result showed that the proportion of landscape occupied by broadleaf species increased under warming climate and frequent fires scenarios. Shifts in species composition were strongly influenced by both climate warming and more frequent fires, while changes in age structure were mainly controlled by shifts in fire regime. These responses varied in the different topographic positions, with forests in valley bottoms being most resilient to climate-fire changes and forests in uplands being more likely to shift their composition from larch-dominant to mixed forests. Such variation in the topographic response may be induced by the heterogeneities of the environmental conditions and fire regime.
Conclusions
Fire disturbance could alter the equilibrium of ecosystems and accelerate the response of forests to climate warming. These effects are largely modulated by topographic variations. Our findings suggest that it is imperative to consider topographic complexities when developing appropriate fire management policies for mitigating the effects of climate change.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alexander HD, Mack M, Goetz S, Beck P, Belshe E (2012a) Implications of increased deciduous cover on stand structure and aboveground carbon pools of Alaskan boreal forests. Ecosphere 3:1–21
Alexander HD, Mack MC (2015) A canopy shift in Interior Alaskan boreal forests: consequences for above- and belowground carbon and nitrogen pools during post-fire succession. Ecosystems 19:98–114
Alexander HD, Mack MC, Goetz S, Loranty MM, Beck PSA, Earl K, Zimov S, Davydov S, Thompson CC (2012b) Carbon accumulation patterns during post-fire succession in Cajander larch (Larix cajanderi) forests of Siberia. Ecosystems 15:1065–1082
Alexeyev V, Birdsey R, Stakanov V, Korotkov I (1995) Carbon in vegetation of Russian forests: methods to estimate storage and geographical distribution. Water Air Soil Pollut 82:271–282
Araujo MB, New M (2007) Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Trends Ecol Evolut 22:42–47
Balshi MS, McGUIRE AD, Duffy P, Flannigan M, Walsh J, Melillo J (2009) Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) approach. Glob Change Biol 15:578–600
Beck PSA, Goetz SJ, Mack MC, Alexander HD, Jin Y, Randerson JT, Loranty M (2011) The impacts and implications of an intensifying fire regime on Alaskan boreal forest composition and albedo. Glob Change Biol 17:2853–2866
Bergeron Y, Gauthier S, Kafka V, Lefort P, Lesieur D (2001) Natural fire frequency for the eastern Canadian boreal forest: consequences for sustainable forestry. Can J For Res 31:384–391
Berner LT, Beck PS, Bunn AG, Goetz SJ (2013) Plant response to climate change along the forest-tundra ecotone in Northeastern Siberia. Glob Change Biol 19:3449–3462
Bonan GB (2008) Forests and climate change: forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests. Science 320:1444–1449
Bond-Lamberty B, Rocha AV, Calvin K, Holmes B, Wang C, Goulden ML (2014) Disturbance legacies and climate jointly drive tree growth and mortality in an intensively studied boreal forest. Glob Change Biol 20:216–227
Bu R, He HS, Hu Y, Chang Y, Larsen DR (2008) Using the LANDIS model to evaluate forest harvesting and planting strategies under possible warming climates in Northeastern China. For Ecol Manag 254:407–419
Cai W, Yang J, Liu Z, Hu Y, Weisberg PJ (2013) Post-fire tree recruitment of a boreal larch forest in Northeast China. For Ecol Manag 307:20–29
Cai WH, Yang J (2016) High-severity fire reduces early successional boreal larch forest aboveground productivity by shifting stand density in north-eastern China. Int J Wildland Fire 25:861–875
Chang Y, He HS, Bishop I, Hu Y, Bu R, Xu C, Li X (2007) Long-term forest landscape responses to fire exclusion in the Great Xing’an Mountains, China. Int J Wildland Fire 16:34–44
Chang Y, He HS, Hu Y, Bu R, Li X (2008) Historic and current fire regimes in the Great Xing’an Mountains, northeastern China: implications for long-term forest management. For Ecol Manag 254:445–453
Chapin FS III, Callaghan TV, Bergeron Y, Fukuda M, Johnstone J, Juday G, Zimov S (2004) Global change and the boreal forest: thresholds, shifting states or gradual change? AMBIO 33:361–365
Chapin FS, Randerson JT, McGuire AD, Foley JA, Field CB (2008) Changing feedbacks in the climate–biosphere system. Front Ecol Environ 6:313–320
Chen IC, Hill JK, Ohlemuller R, Roy DB, Thomas CD (2011) Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming. Science 333:1024–1026
Conard SG, Ivanova GA (1997) Wildfire in Russian boreal forests - Potential impacts of fire regime characteristics on emissions and global carbon balance estimates. Environ Pollut 98:305–313
Dai L, Korolev KS, Gore J (2013) Slower recovery in space before collapse of connected populations. Nature 496:355–358
Dixon RK, Brown S, Houghton RA, Solomon AM, Trexler MC, Wisniewski J (1994) Carbon pools and flux of global forest ecosystems. Science 263:185–189
Duveneck MJ, Scheller RM (2016) Measuring and managing resistance and resilience under climate change in northern Great Lake forests (USA). Landscape Ecol 31:669–686
Edenhofer O, Seyboth K (2013) Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC). Encycl Energy Nat Resour Environ Econ 26:48–56
Euskirchen ES, McGuire AD, Rupp TS, Chapin FS, Walsh JE (2009) Projected changes in atmospheric heating due to changes in fire disturbance and the snow season in the western Arctic 2003–2100. J Geophys Res 114:G04022
Fang L, Yang J, Zu J, Li G, Zhang J (2015) Quantifying influences and relative importance of fire weather, topography, and vegetation on fire size and fire severity in a Chinese boreal forest landscape. For Ecol Manag 356:2–12
Field CB, Lobell DB, Peters HA, Chiariello NR (2007) Feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. Annu Rev Environ Resour 32:1–29
Furyaev VV, Vaganov EA, Tchebakova NM, Valendik EN (2001) Effects of fire and climate on successions and structural changes in the Siberian boreal forest. Eurasian J For Res 2:1–15
Ge ZM, Kellomäki S, Peltola H, Zhou X, Väisänen H, Strandman H (2013) Impacts of climate change on primary production and carbon sequestration of boreal Norway spruce forests: Finland as a model. Clim Change 118:259–273
Gower ST, Richards JH (1990) Larches: deciduous conifers in an evergreen world. Bioscience 40:818–826
Gustafson EJ, Shvidenko AZ, Sturtevant BR, Scheller RM (2010) Predicting global change effects on forest biomass and composition in south-central Siberia. Ecol Appl 20:700–715
He HS, Hao Z, Mladenoff DJ, Shao G, Hu Y, Chang Y (2005) Simulating forest ecosystem response to climate warming incorporating spatial effects in north-eastern China. J Biogeogr 32:2043–2056
He HS, Mladenoff DJ (1999) Spatially explicit and stochastic simulation of forest-landscape fire disturbance and succession. Ecology 80:81–99
He HS, Mladenoff DJ, Crow TR (1999) Linking an ecosystem model and a landscape model to study forest species response to climate warming. Ecol Model 114:213–233
Higuera PE (2015) Taking time to consider the causes and consequences of large wildfires. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 112:13137–13138
Huang C, He HS, Hawbaker TJ, Liang Y, Gong P, Wu Z, Zhu Z (2017) A coupled modeling framework for predicting ecosystem carbon dynamics in boreal forests. Environ Model Softw 93:332–343
Ito A (2005) Modelling of carbon cycle and fire regime in an east Siberian larch forest. Ecol Model 187:121–139
James PMA, Fortin MJ, Fall A, Kneeshaw D, Messier C (2007) The Effects of Spatial Legacies following Shifting Management Practices and Fire on Boreal Forest Age Structure. Ecosystems 10:1261–1277
Johnstone JF, Chapin F III, Foote J, Kemmett S, Price K, Viereck L (2004) Decadal observations of tree regeneration following fire in boreal forests. Can J For Res 34:267–273
Johnstone JF, Chapin FS, Hollingsworth TN, Mack MC, Romanovsky V, Turetsky M (2010) Fire, climate change, and forest resilience in interior Alaska. Can J For Res 40:1302–1312
Kajimoto T, Osawa A, Usoltsev V, Abaimov A (2010) Biomass and productivity of Siberian larch forest ecosystems. Permafrost Ecosystems. Springer, Berlin/Heidelberg, pp 99–122
Kashian DM, Romme WH, Tinker DB, Turner MG, Ryan MG (2013) Post-fire changes in forest carbon storage over a 300-year chronosequence of Pinus contorta-dominated forests. Ecol Monogr 83:49–66
Kashian DM, Turner MG, Romme WH, Lorimer CG (2005) Variability and convergence in stand structural development on a fire-dominated subalpine landscape. Ecology 86:643–654
Li C, Flannigan MD, Corns IGW (2000) Influence of potential climate change on forest landscape dynamics of west-central Alberta. Can J For Res 30:1905–1912
Li X, He HS, Wu Z, Liang Y, Schneiderman JE (2013) Comparing effects of climate warming, fire, and timber harvesting on a boreal forest landscape in northeastern China. PLoS ONE 8:e59747
Liang Y, He HS, Wu ZW, Yang J (2014) Effects of environmental heterogeneity on predictions of tree species’ abundance in response to climate warming. Environ Model Softw 59:222–231
Liu Y, Stanturf J, Goodrick S (2010a) Trends in global wildfire potential in a changing climate. For Ecol Manag 259:685–697
Liu Z, He HS, Chang Y, Hu Y (2010b) Analyzing the effectiveness of alternative fuel reductions of a forested landscape in Northeastern China. For Ecol Manag 259:1255–1261
Liu Z, Yang J, Chang Y, Weisberg PJ, He HS (2012) Spatial patterns and drivers of fire occurrence and its future trend under climate change in a boreal forest of Northeast China. Glob Change Biol 18:2041–2056
Liu Z, Yang J, He HS (2013) Identifying the threshold of dominant controls on fire spread in a boreal forest landscape of Northeast China. PLoS ONE 8:e55618
Lucash MS, Scheller RM, Gustafson EJ, Sturtevant BR (2017) Spatial resilience of forested landscapes under climate change and management. Landscape Ecol 32:953–969
Mack MC, Treseder KK, Manies KL, Harden JW, Schuur EAG, Vogel JG, Randerson JT, Chapin FS (2008) Recovery of aboveground plant biomass and productivity after fire in mesic and dry black spruce forests of interior alaska. Ecosystems 11:209–225
Mladenoff DJ, He HS (1999) Design, behavior and application of LANDIS, an object-oriented model of forest landscape disturbance and succession. Spatial modeling of forest landscape change: approaches and applications. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 125–162
Pastor J, Post WM (1985) Development of a linked forest productivity-soil process model
Price DT, Cooke BJ, Metsaranta JM, Kurz WA (2015) If forest dynamics in Canada’s west are driven mainly by competition, why did they change? Half-century evidence says: climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 112:E4340
R Core Team (2013) R: a language and environment for statistical computing. (R Foundation for Statistical Computing: Vienna, Austria). http://www.R-project.org/
Ramirez-Villegas J, Challinor AJ, Thornton PK, Jarvis A (2013) Implications of regional improvement in global climate models for agricultural impact research. Environ Res Lett 8:24018
Randerson JT, Liu H, Flanner MG, Chambers SD, Jin Y, Hess PG, Pfister G, Mack MC, Treseder KK, Welp LR (2006) The impact of boreal forest fire on climate warming. Science 341:1130–1132
Scheller RM, Mladenoff DJ (2004) A forest growth and biomass module for a landscape simulation model, LANDIS: design, validation, and application. Ecol Model 180:211–229
Scheller RM, Mladenoff DJ (2005) A spatially interactive simulation of climate change, harvesting, wind, and tree species migration and projected changes to forest composition and biomass in northern Wisconsin, USA. Glob Change Biol 11:307–321
Schwartz NB, Urban DL, White PS, Moody A, Klein RN (2016) Vegetation dynamics vary across topographic and fire severity gradients following prescribed burning in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. For Ecol Manag 365:107–118
Seidl R, Spies TA, Peterson DL, Stephens SL, Hiche JA (2016) Searching for resilience: addressing the impacts of changing disturbance regimes on forest ecosystem services. J Appl Ecol 53:120–129
Shryock DF, Esque TC, Chen FC (2015) Topography and climate are more important drivers of long-term, post-fire vegetation assembly than time-since-fire in the Sonoran Desert, US. J Veg Sci 26:1134–1147
Smithwick E, Ryan M, Kashian D, Romme W, Tinker D, Turner M (2009) Modeling the effects of fire and climate change on carbon and nitrogen storage in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) stands. Glob Change Biol 15:535–548
Tautenhahn S, Lichstein JW, Jung M, Kattge J, Bohlman SA, Heilmeier H, Prokushkin A, Kahl A, Wirth C (2016) Dispersal limitation drives successional pathways in Central Siberian forests under current and intensified fire regimes. Glob Change Biol 22:2178–2197
Turner MG (2010) Disturbance and landscape dynamics in a changing world. Ecology 91:2833–2849
Wang WJ, He HS, Fraser JS, Thompson FR, Shifley SR, Spetich MA (2014) LANDIS PRO: a landscape model that predicts forest composition and structure changes at regional scales. Ecography 37:225–229
Xu HC (1998) Forests in the Great Xing’an Mountains of China. Science Press, Beijing
Yang J, He HS, Shifley SR, Thompson FR, Zhang Y (2011) An innovative computer design for modeling forest landscape change in very large spatial extents with fine resolutions. Ecol Model 222:2623–2630
Yang J, Weisberg PJ, Shinneman DJ, Dilts TE, Earnst SL, Scheller RM (2015) Fire modulates climate change response of simulated aspen distribution across topoclimatic gradients in a semi-arid montane landscape. Landscape Ecol 30:1055–1073
Zhang Y, Liang S (2014) Surface radiative forcing of forest disturbances over northeastern China. Environ Res Lett 9:69–75
Zhou Y (1991) Vegetation of Da Hinggan Ling in China. Science Press, Beijing
Acknowledgements
This research was funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFA0604403), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Project No. 31270511, 41222004, 31470517, 31500387 & 41501200), CAS Interdisciplinary Innovation Team, and the Hundred Talent Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The authors thank Xu Luo and Xiaona Li for their help in parameterizing LANDIS PRO. We also thank three anonymous reviewers and academic editor for comments that improved this manuscript.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Cai, W.H., Yang, Y.Z., Yang, J. et al. Topographic variation in the climatic change response of a larch forest in Northeastern China. Landscape Ecol 33, 2013–2029 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-018-0711-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-018-0711-3