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Estimating Chinese rural and urban residents’ carbon consumption and its drivers: considering capital formation as a productive input

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Abstract

Estimating carbon emissions from the perspective of consumption and reducing carbon emission by guiding residents’ consumption is paid more and more attention by some countries and organizations. This study by considering the capital formation as a productive input of final consumer products estimates the carbon consumption of Chinese residents. Furthermore, it explores the driving factors of carbon consumption based on structural decomposition analysis. Results showed that the carbon consumption of Chinese residents (rural and urban) grew steadily. The annual carbon consumption by urban and rural residents increased at a rate of 9.94% and 0.81%, respectively. The average per capita indirect carbon consumption by urban residents during the period was 3.17 times of that by rural residents. Structural decomposition analysis showed that the structure of the urban and rural population and that of the total population are both critical factors promoting carbon consumption by residents, where the former is more powerful. The per capita product consumption caused an increase in the carbon intake of households, while the carbon emission intensity of industrial production decreased the carbon use. Although other factors also contributed to the increase in carbon consumption by residents, their role was comparatively less. This study also provides consumer-focused important carbon emission mitigation policy implications.

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Acknowledgements

This study was financially supported by the 2018 Project for Cultural Evolution and Creation of CUMT (Grant No. 2018WHCC01).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Public Administration, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, 221116, China

    Ming Cao

  2. School of Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, Jiangsu Province, 221116, China

    Wei Kang, Qingren Cao & M. Jawad Sajid

  3. Jiangsu Energy Economics and Management Research Base, Xuzhou, 221116, China

    Qingren Cao

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  1. Ming Cao
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Appendix

Appendix

The equations for estimating carbon consumption by residents can be written as follows:

$$E = E_{\text{di}} + E_{\text{indi}} = \rho S_{e} D_{e} R = P\left( {I - T} \right)^{ - 1} S_{g} D_{g} C_{r} R$$
(13)

Therefore, the change in carbon consumption can be decomposed into eight factors. Note N\(= \left( {I - T} \right)^{ - 1}\), and the formula decomposed from the period \(t - 1\) is as follows:

$$\begin{aligned} \Delta E & = E^{t} - E^{t - 1} \\ & = \rho S_{e}^{t} D_{e}^{t} R^{t} + P^{t} N^{t} S_{g}^{t} D_{g}^{t} C_{r}^{t} R^{t} - \left( {\rho S_{e}^{t - 1} D_{e}^{t - 1} R^{t - 1} + P^{t - 1} N^{t - 1} S_{g}^{t - 1} D_{g}^{t - 1} C_{r}^{t - 1} R^{t - 1} } \right) \\ & = \rho \Delta S_{e} D_{e}^{t - 1} R^{t - 1} + \rho S_{e}^{t} \Delta D_{e} R^{t - 1} + \rho S_{e}^{t} D_{e}^{t} \Delta R + \Delta PN^{t - 1} S_{g}^{t - 1} D_{g}^{t - 1} C_{r}^{t - 1} R^{t - 1} \\ & \quad + \,P^{t} \Delta NS_{g}^{t - 1} D_{g}^{t - 1} C_{r}^{t - 1} R^{t - 1} + P^{t} N^{t} \Delta S_{g} D_{g}^{t - 1} C_{r}^{t - 1} R^{t - 1} + P^{t} N^{t} S_{g}^{t} \Delta D_{g} C_{r}^{t - 1} R^{t - 1} \\ & \quad + \,P^{t} N^{t} S_{g}^{t} D_{g}^{t} \Delta C_{r} R^{t - 1} + P^{t} N^{t} S_{g}^{t} D_{g}^{t} C_{r}^{t} \Delta R \\ \end{aligned}$$
(14)

The formula decomposed from the period \(t\) is as follows:

$$\begin{aligned} \Delta E & = E^{t} - E^{t - 1} \\ & = \rho S_{e}^{t} D_{e}^{t} R^{t} + P^{t} N^{t} S_{g}^{t} D_{g}^{t} C_{r}^{t} R^{t} - \left( {\rho S_{e}^{t - 1} D_{e}^{t - 1} R^{t - 1} + P^{t - 1} N^{t - 1} S_{g}^{t - 1} D_{g}^{t - 1} C_{r}^{t - 1} R^{t - 1} } \right) \\ & = \rho \Delta S_{e} D_{e}^{t} R^{t} + \rho S_{e}^{t - 1} \Delta D_{e} R^{t} + \rho S_{e}^{t - 1} D_{e}^{t - 1} \Delta R + \Delta PN^{t} S_{g}^{t} D_{g}^{t} C_{r}^{t} R^{t} \\ & \quad + \,P^{t - 1} \Delta NS_{g}^{t} D_{g}^{t} C_{r}^{t} R^{t} + P^{t - 1} N^{t - 1} \Delta S_{g} D_{g}^{t} C_{r}^{t} R^{t} + P^{t - 1} N^{t - 1} S_{g}^{t - 1} \Delta D_{g} C_{r}^{t} R^{t} \\ & \quad + \,P^{t - 1} N^{t - 1} S_{g}^{t - 1} D_{g}^{t - 1} \Delta C_{r} R^{t} + P^{t - 1} N^{t - 1} S_{g}^{t - 1} D_{g}^{t - 1} C_{r}^{t - 1} \Delta R \\ \end{aligned}$$
(15)

According to the two-stage decomposition method, the following formula can be obtained.

$$\begin{aligned} f\left( {\Delta S_{e} } \right) & = 1/2\left( {\rho \Delta S_{e} D_{e}^{t - 1} R^{t - 1} + \rho \Delta S_{e} D_{e}^{t} R^{t} } \right) \\ f\left( {\Delta D_{e} } \right) & = 1/2\left( {\rho S_{e}^{t} \Delta D_{e} R^{t - 1} + \rho S_{e}^{t - 1} \Delta D_{e} R^{t} } \right) \\ f\left( {\Delta P} \right) & = 1/2\left( {\Delta PN^{t - 1} S_{g}^{t - 1} D_{g}^{t - 1} C_{r}^{t - 1} R^{t - 1} + \Delta PN^{t} S_{g}^{t} D_{g}^{t} C_{r}^{t} R^{t} } \right) \\ f\left( {\Delta N} \right) & = 1/2\left( {P^{t} \Delta NS_{g}^{t - 1} D_{g}^{t - 1} C_{r}^{t - 1} R^{t - 1} + P^{t - 1} \Delta NS_{g}^{t} D_{g}^{t} C_{r}^{t} R^{t} } \right) \\ f\left( {\Delta S_{g} } \right) & = 1/2\left( {P^{t} N^{t} \Delta S_{g} D_{g}^{t - 1} C_{r}^{t - 1} R^{t - 1} + P^{t - 1} N^{t - 1} \Delta S_{g} D_{g}^{t} C_{r}^{t} R^{t} } \right) \\ f\left( {\Delta D_{g} } \right) & = 1/2\left( {P^{t} N^{t} S_{g}^{t} \Delta D_{g} C_{r}^{t - 1} R^{t - 1} + P^{t - 1} N^{t - 1} S_{g}^{t - 1} \Delta D_{g} C_{r}^{t} R^{t} } \right) \\ f\left( {\Delta C_{r} } \right) & = 1/2\left( {P^{t} N^{t} S_{g}^{t} D_{g}^{t} \Delta C_{r} R^{t - 1} + P^{t - 1} N^{t - 1} S_{g}^{t - 1} D_{g}^{t - 1} \Delta C_{r} R^{t} } \right) \\ f\left( {\Delta R} \right) & = 1/2\left( {\rho S_{e}^{t} D_{e}^{t} \Delta R + \rho S_{e}^{t - 1} D_{e}^{t - 1} \Delta R} \right) \\ & \quad + \,1/2\left( {P^{t} N^{t} S_{g}^{t} D_{g}^{t} C_{r}^{t} \Delta R + P^{t - 1} N^{t - 1} S_{g}^{t - 1} D_{g}^{t - 1} C_{r}^{t - 1} \Delta R} \right) \\ \end{aligned}$$
(16)

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Cao, M., Kang, W., Cao, Q. et al. Estimating Chinese rural and urban residents’ carbon consumption and its drivers: considering capital formation as a productive input. Environ Dev Sustain 22, 5443–5464 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-019-00432-2

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