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The heat: temperature, police behavior and the enforcement of law

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Abstract

Despite ample investigation into the influence of ambient temperature on behavior, and especially on criminal activity, little research exists on the impact of temperature on police behavior. As such, this analysis tests the “heat hypothesis” over 5 years of traffic stops by the City of Pittsburgh Police Department. Across a range of specifications, police officers are more likely to issue traffic citations when temperatures are warmer—holding constant driving behavior—and the magnitude of the increase is comparable to citation rate discrepancies between black and white drivers.

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Notes

  1. The city of Pittsburgh spans approximately 60 square miles, and the population of the metro area exceeds 2 million.

  2. Shift 1 denotes stops performed from 7:00 am to 3:00 pm, Shift 2 denotes stops performed from 3:00 pm to 11:00 pm, and Shift 3 denotes stops performed from 11:00 pm to 7:00 am.

  3. NOAA provides the following equation for the generation of heat index (HI) from temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH):

    HI = − 42.379 + 2.04901523*T + 10.14333127*RH − .22475541*T*RH − .00683783*T*T − .05481717*RH*RH + .00122874*T*T*RH + .00085282*T*RH*RH − .00000199*T*T*RH*RH.

  4. Interestingly, Kenrick and MacFarlane (1986) found that spring and summertime drivers in Phoenix are more likely to honk their horns as temperatures rise, and even moreso should their windows be open.

  5. Do note that the aggression measured in this analysis is solely the officer’s. The data are unable to capture any aggression by the driver during the traffic stop itself, and thus unable to discern any role that may play in the discretionary behavior of the officer.

  6. Further, the demographic breakdown across temperatures warrants a brief note. While gender remains roughly constant across all temperatures, the proportion of black drivers falls as temperatures rise. Insofar that black drivers are more likely to receive citations as compared to white drivers, the measurement of police aggression due to temperature increases may be biased downwards.

  7. For further exploration of the roles of race and gender during traffic stops, please see Lundman and Kaufman (2003) and Ryan (2016), amongst many.

  8. As expected, Temp and Temp Diff are highly correlated, as higher temperatures will correspond with higher than average temperatures. The correlation coefficient between the two variables is: r = 0.55.

  9. Note that Table 8 reports only the partial effects for Temp, Temp Diff and their squared terms. A full set of control variables are included in each regression, and their estimates are effectively identical to the estimates for them in Table 7.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Duquesne University, 600 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA, 15282, USA

    Matt E. Ryan

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Ryan, M.E. The heat: temperature, police behavior and the enforcement of law. Eur J Law Econ 49, 187–203 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10657-020-09646-6

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