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Impact of climate change on the agriculture sector and household welfare in Mozambique: an analysis based on a dynamic computable general equilibrium model

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Abstract

Mozambique has historically been prone to natural disasters due to its geographical location, but over the past 20 years the intensity and frequency of droughts, floods and cyclones has increased, negatively affecting the entire economy, particularly agriculture. These impacts are expected to worsen, as climatic conditions become hotter and drier. This study estimates the impacts of climate change on the agriculture sector and household welfare in Mozambique using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. Specifically, the study investigates the impact of climate change on agricultural production, looking at implications for various crops and regions in the country. It also reports climate change impacts on both urban and rural household welfare. A probabilistic approach considering a distribution of climate shocks under two global mitigation futures (i.e. unconstrained emissions and level 1 stabilization) is used to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the economy, providing a range for the potential impact of climate change and the uncertainties related to it. Climate impacts are considered through five key channels: agriculture, roads, hydropower, sea-level rise and cyclones. The analysis shows that acute negative impacts are experienced in the agricultural sector, particularly for maize and cassava as crop yields decrease. Successful global mitigation efforts of reducing CO2 concentration to 560 ppm by 2100 (L1S) decreases the degree of uncertainty of the impact of climate change on the Mozambican economy, as the GDP is expected to increase up to USD 6.0 billion.

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Acknowledgements

We are grateful to the International Food Policy Research Institute for funding this study.

Funding

This study was funded by the International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C., USA.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Research Centre for Agricultural Policies and Programs, Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo, Mozambique

    Lourenço Manuel, Orcídia Chiziane, Gaby Mandhlate & Emílio Tostão

  2. University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa

    Faaiqa Hartley

Authors
  1. Lourenço Manuel
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  2. Orcídia Chiziane
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  3. Gaby Mandhlate
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  4. Faaiqa Hartley
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  5. Emílio Tostão
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Contributions

Lourenço Manuel was the team leader of the study. Among other activities he was responsible for the abstract and section 4.

Orcídia Chiziane was responsible for sections 3 and 5.

Gaby Mandlate wrote the Introduction and section 2.

Faaiqa Hartley was responsible for model calibration and data analysis.

Emilio Tostão was responsible for technical revision of the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Lourenço Manuel.

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Manuel, L., Chiziane, O., Mandhlate, G. et al. Impact of climate change on the agriculture sector and household welfare in Mozambique: an analysis based on a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. Climatic Change 167, 6 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03139-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03139-4

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