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Yield implications of date and cultivar adaptation to wheat phenological shifts: a survey of farmers in Turkey

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A Correction to this article was published on 14 December 2019

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Abstract

Long-term studies on ecosystems have established that climate change leads to significant shifts in the seasonal timing of recurring biological events. Crop phenological events have mostly shifted to earlier periods in the growing season than they occurred previously. A substantial body of research models the implications of these shifts on cereal yields. Yet, studies often underestimate the compensating yield effect of farmers’ autonomous adaptation efforts in the form of date adjustments and cultivar change. Adaptation estimates that are reported in the literature are almost exclusively based on crop models, not on estimated yield gains observed through farm surveys. Hence, the empirical literature on observed yield impacts of adaptation is scant, especially on important cash crops such as wheat. This paper explores the drivers of date and cultivar adaptation methods and their impacts on wheat yields in Turkey. By employing an endogenous switching regression model based on a survey of 572 farmers from three different agro-ecological zones, we find that date and cultivar adaptation increase yields of adapter households by 16% and 31%, respectively, and that non-adapter households would have benefited even more if they had adapted. The findings contribute to the interpretation of the results of modelling studies while also offering policy recommendations for planned adaptation. Policies to support farmers to practice date adaption could be implemented through the dissemination of information and knowledge on climate change, which is a low-cost option offering limited yet significant yield benefits. Public investments to develop and diffuse new cultivars that are adaptable to shifts in phenological events offer higher yield benefits.

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Change history

  • 14 December 2019

    The original article has been corrected.

Notes

  1. We define autonomous adaptation as actions undertaken by affected people, farmers in this case, without planned interventions. These are largely “incremental adaptation” efforts that aim to avoid disruption and to enable the continuity of current farming activities under changed climatic conditions.

  2. The instrumental variable is expected to affect the adaptation decision significantly, but should not have an impact on their yield outcome. These two conditions are satisfied for cultivar change (p value of 0.000 in the adoption equation and p value of 0.875 in the yield equation); however, for the date adaptation, although the coefficient estimate in the adoption equation is statistically significant (with a p value of 0.004), it is also statistically significant in the yield equation (with a p value of 0.005; detailed results are available from the authors’ upon request). Other research in the literature have only used one type of change in their estimations (Di Falco et al. 2011; Huang et al. 2015; Khanal et al. 2018), and with them, the two conditions stated above are satisfied. We use two separate types of adaptation strategies with the same instrumental variable and whereas with one of them we were able to validate the instrument, in the second case it was only partially validated.

  3. The variance inflation factors (VIF) did not show evidence of multicollinearity.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the editors, three anonymous referees, Mark Howden, Hasan Dudu, Metin Cakir, and Megan Gisclon, for valuable comments and helpful suggestions. Any remaining errors are our own.

Funding

This research has been supported by the Bogazici University Research Fund (BAP), project number R8423.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Istanbul Policy Center, Sabancı Üniversitesi Karaköy Minerva Han, Bankalar Caddesi, No: 2, 34420, Karaköy/İstanbul, Turkey

    Baris Karapinar

  2. Department of Economics, Boğaziçi University, 34342, Bebek/İstanbul, Turkey

    Gökhan Özertan

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  1. Baris Karapinar
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Correspondence to Baris Karapinar.

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Karapinar, B., Özertan, G. Yield implications of date and cultivar adaptation to wheat phenological shifts: a survey of farmers in Turkey. Climatic Change 158, 453–472 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02532-4

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