Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Developing carbon budgets for UK agriculture, land-use, land-use change and forestry out to 2022

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper derives a notional future carbon budget for UK agriculture, land use, land use change and forestry sectors (ALULUCF). The budget is based on a bottom-up marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) derived for a range of mitigation measures for specified adoption scenarios for the years 2012, 2017 and 2022. The results indicate that in 2022 around 6.36 MtCO2e could be abated at negative or zero cost. Furthermore, in the same year, over 17% of agricultural GHG emissions (7.85 MtCO2e) could be abated at a cost of less than the 2022 Shadow Price of Carbon (£34 (tCO2e) − 1). The development of robust MACCs faces a range of methodological hurdles that complicate cost-effectiveness appraisal in ALULUCF relative to other sectors. Nevertheless, the current analysis provides an initial route map of efficient measures for mitigation in UK agriculture.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • ADAS, SAC, IGER, AFBI (2007) Baseline projections for agriculture (Business as usual III). Final report to Defra, London

  • Bosello FC, Giupponi A, Povellato (2007) A review of recent studies on cost effectiveness of GHG mitigation measures in the European Agro-Forestry Sector Nota di Lavoro 14.2007 Fondaziones Eni Enrico Mattei

  • Choudrie SL, Jackson J, Watterson JD, Murrells T, Passant N, Thomson A, Cardenas L, Leech A, Mobbs DC, Thistlethwaite G (2008) UK greenhouse gas inventory, 1990 to 2006: annual report for submission under the Framework Convention on Climate Change. AEA Technology, Didcot, Oxfordshire, UK, p 243. http://www.airquality.co.uk/archive/reports/cat07/0804161424_ukghgi-90-06_main_chapters_UNFCCCsubmission_150408.pdf

  • CLA/AIC/NFU (2007) Part of the solution: climate change, agriculture and land management. Report of the Joint NFU/CLA/AIC Climate Change Task Force. Country Land and Business Association, Agricultural Industries Confederation, and National Farmers’ Union. http://www.agindustries.org.uk/document.aspx?fn=load&media_id=2926&publicationId=1662

  • Committee on Climate Change (2008) Building a low-carbon economy—the UK’s contribution to tackling climate change. http://www.theccc.org.uk/

  • DeAngelo BJ, De la Chesnaye FC, Beach RH, Sommer A, Murray BC (2006) Multi-greenhouse gas mitigation. Energy J 27:89–108

    Google Scholar 

  • De Cara S, Houzé M, Jayet PA (2005) Methane and nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture in the EU: a spatial assessment of sources and abatement costs. Environ Resour Econ 32:551–583

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Defra (2002) CC0233. Scientific Report, London, Defra

  • Defra (2007) Agriculture in the UK. Defra, London. https://statistics.defra.gov.uk/esg/publications/auk/

  • Deybe D, Fallot A (2003) Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture: analysing the room for manoeuvre for mitigation, in case of carbon pricing. In: 25th International conference of agricultural economists, August 16–22, Durban

  • ECCP (2001) Agriculture. Mitigation potential of greenhouse gases in the agricultural sector. Working group 7. Final report of European Climate Change Programme, COMM(2000)88, European Commission, Brussels. http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/pdf/agriculture_report.pdf

  • IGER (2001) Cost curve assessment of mitigation options in greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. Final project report to Defra (project code: CC0209). http://randd.defra.gov.uk/Default.aspx?Menu=Menu&Module=More&Location=None&Completed=0&ProjectID=8018

  • McCarl BA, Schneider U (2001) Greenhouse gas mitigation in US agriculture and forestry. Science 294:2481–2482

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCarl BA, Schneider U (2003) Economic potential of biomass based fuels for greenhouse gas emission mitigation. Environ Resour Econ 24(4):291–312

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McKinsey and Company (2008) An Australian cost curve for greenhouse gas reduction. http://www.mckinsey.com/clientservice/ccsi/pdf/Australian_Cost_Curve_for_GHG_Reduction.pdf

  • McKinsey and Company (2009) Pathways to a low-carbon economy—global greenhouse gases (GHG) abatement cost curve. Version 2 of the global greenhouse gas abatement cost curve—January 2009. http://globalghgcostcurve.bymckinsey.com/

  • Moorby J, Chadwick D, Scholefield D, Chambers B, Williams J (2007) A review of research to identify best practice for reducing greenhouse gases from agriculture and land management. Defra AC0206 report, IGER-ADAS

  • Moran D, MacLeod M, Wall E, Eory V, Pajot G, Matthews R, McVittie A, Barnes A, Rees B, Moxey A, Williams A, Smith P (2008) UK marginal abatement cost curves for agriculture and land use, land-use change and forestry sectors out to 2022, with qualitative analysis of options to 2050. Final Report to the Committee on Climate Change, London. http://www.theccc.org.uk/reports/supporting-research/

  • Moxey A (2008) Reviewing and developing agricultural responses to climate change. Report prepared for the Scottish Government Rural and Environment Research and Analysis Directorate (SG-RERAD) Agricultural and Climate Change Stakeholder Group (ACCSG). Report No CR/2007/11, Pareto Consulting, Edinburgh, p 59

  • NERA (2007) Market mechanisms for reducing GHG emissions from agriculture. Forestry and Land Management London, Defra

  • Pérez I, Holm-Müller K (2005) Economic incentives and technological options to global warming emission abatement in European agriculture. In: 89th EAAE seminar: modelling agricultural policies: state of the art and new challenges, February 3–5, Parma

  • Rees RM, Bingham IJ, Baddeley JA, Watson CA (2004) The role of plants and land management in sequestering soil carbon in temperate arable and grassland ecosystems. Geoderma 128:130–154

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith P, Martino D, Cai Z, Gwary D, Janzen H, Kumar P, McCarl B, Ogle S, O’Mara F, Rice C, Scholes B, Sirotenko O (2007a) Agriculture. In: Metz B, Davidson O, Bosch P, Dave R, Meyer L (eds) Climate change 2007: mitigation. Contribution of working group III to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. http://www.mnp.nl/ipcc/pages_media/FAR4docs/final%20pdfs%20of%20chapters%20WGIII/IPCC%20WGIII_chapter%208_final.pdf

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith P, Martino D, Cai Z, Gwary D, Janzen H, Kumar P, McCarl B, Ogle S, O’Mara F, Rice C, Scholes B, Sirotenko O, Howden M, McAllister T, Pan G, Romanenkov V, Uwe Schneider U, Towprayoon S (2007b) Policy and technological constraints to implementation of greenhouse gas mitigation options in agriculture. Agric Ecosyst Environ 118:6–28

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith P, Martino D, Cai Z, Gwary D, Janzen H, Kumar P, McCarl B, Ogle S, O’Mara F, Rice C, Scholes B, Sirotenko O, Howden M, McAllister T, Pan G, Romanenkov V, Uwe Schneider U, Towprayoon S, Wattenbach M, Smith J (2008) Greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture. Philos Trans R Soc B 363:789–813. doi:10.1098/rstb.2007.2184

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thomson AM, van Oijen M (2007) UK emissions by sources and removals by sinks due to land use, land use change and forestry. Report for DEFRA, June 2007

  • Thomson AM, van Oijen M (2008) Inventory and projections of UK emissions by sources and removals by sinks due to land use, land use change and forestry: annual report, June 2007. Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs: Climate, Energy, Science and Analysis Division, London, p 200

  • US-EPA (2005) Greenhouse gas mitigation potential in US forestry and agriculture. EPA 430-R-05-006. US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC. http://www.epa.gov/sequestration

  • US-EPA (2006) Global mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gases. EPA 430-R-06-005. United States Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC. www.epa.gov/nonco2/econ-inv/downloads/GlobalMitigationFullReport.pdf

  • Weiske A (2005) Survey of technical and management-based mitigation measures in agriculture. MEACAP WP3 D7a

  • Weiske A (2006) Selection and specification of technical and management-based greenhouse gas mitigation measures in agricultural production for modelling. MEACAP WP3 D10a

  • Weiske A (2007) Potential for carbon sequestration in European agriculture. MEACAP WP3 D10a appendix

  • Weiske A, Michel J (2007) Greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation costs of selected mitigation measures in agricultural production. MEACAP WP3 D15a

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. SAC, West Mains Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3JG, UK

    Dominic Moran, Michael MacLeod, Eileen Wall, Vera Eory, Alistair McVittie, Andrew Barnes, R. M. Rees & Cairistiona F. E. Topp

  2. Macaulay Institute, Aberdeen, UK

    Guillaume Pajot & Robin Matthews

  3. University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK

    Pete Smith

  4. Pareto Consulting, Edinburgh, UK

    Andrew Moxey

Authors
  1. Dominic Moran
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Michael MacLeod
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Eileen Wall
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Vera Eory
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Alistair McVittie
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Andrew Barnes
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. R. M. Rees
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. Cairistiona F. E. Topp
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  9. Guillaume Pajot
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  10. Robin Matthews
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  11. Pete Smith
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  12. Andrew Moxey
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Dominic Moran.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Moran, D., MacLeod, M., Wall, E. et al. Developing carbon budgets for UK agriculture, land-use, land-use change and forestry out to 2022. Climatic Change 105, 529–553 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9898-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9898-2

Keywords

Search

Navigation