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A critical overview of pan evaporation trends over the last 50 years

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Abstract

Despite the observed increases in global average temperature, observations across the world show that the rate of pan evaporation at a regional scale has been steadily decreasing over the past 50 years. This is known as the pan evaporation paradox. This paper reviews current reported pan evaporation trends, examines available theoretical explanations about this “paradox”, and discusses current research gaps and priorities. It concludes that: (1) three major potential causes of pan evaporation, solar radiation, vapour pressure deficit (VPD) and wind speed, have been changing in the last 50 years. The magnitude of changes and importance of each of these three causes varies from region to region, as does the pan evaporation trend, although overall there is a decreasing trend. (2) Currently two existing theories explaining the pan evaporation trends have limits and are only valid in some specific regions and seasons. Neither of them provides a fundamental physical-based theory that could be applied everywhere. (3) Further investigations are needed before we can fully understand the global evapotranspiration trend in global warming scenarios.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. CSIRO Land and Water, Private Bag 5, Wembley, Perth, Western Australia, 6913, Australia

    Guobin Fu & Stephen P. Charles

  2. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, People’s Republic of China

    Jingjie Yu

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  1. Guobin Fu
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Correspondence to Guobin Fu.

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Fu, G., Charles, S.P. & Yu, J. A critical overview of pan evaporation trends over the last 50 years. Climatic Change 97, 193–214 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9579-1

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