Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Seasonal effects of PM10 concentrations on mortality in Tianjin, China: a time-series analysis

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Journal of Public Health Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Aim

There are uncertainties regarding the modification effects of season and temperature on the relationship between air pollution and mortality. This study aims to examine the effects of season and temperature on mortality associated with particulate matter less than 10 μm in diameter (PM10) in Tianjin, China.

Methods

Time-series analysis was used to explore the modification effects of season and temperature on the association between PM10 and cause-specific mortality in Tianjin between 2006 and 2009. The causes studied were overall non-accidental mortality and subcategories of cardiovascular, respiratory, cardiopulmonary, stroke, and ischemic heart diseases (IHD).

Results

The association between PM10 and mortality showed a strong seasonal pattern and the effects of PM10 on cause-specific mortalities were strongest for high temperature days. Generally, the adverse effects were stronger in summer than for other seasons, except for respiratory mortality. In the summer period, a 10 μg/m3 increase in PM10 at 0–1 days was associated with an increase in mortality for non-accidental (0.95 %, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 0.45, 1.45), cardiovascular (1.40 %, 95 %CI: 0.77, 2.03), cardiopulmonary (1.37 %, 95 %CI: 0.77, 1.98), IHD (1.55 %, 95 %CI: 0.73, 2.37), and stroke (1.27 %, 95 % CI: 0.37, 2.12) causes. The overall increase in mortality per 10 μg/m3 increase in PM10 was 0.42 % (95 %CI: 0.26, 0.58) for non-accidental, 0.41 % (95 %CI: 0.21, 0.62) for cardiovascular, 0.46 % (95 %CI: 0.26,0.65) for cardiopulmonary, 0.57 % (95 %CI: 0.30, 0.84) for IHD, and 0.32 % (95 %CI: 0.03,0.61) for stroke. At high temperatures (≥23.8 °C), a 10 μg/m3 increase in PM10 at 0–1 days was associated with an increase in mortality of 0.90 % (95 %CI: 0.61,1.19) for non-accidental, 1.01 % for cardiovascular, 1.40 % (95 %CI: 0.55, 2.27) for respiratory, 1.06 % (95 %CI: 0.71, 1.41) for cardiopulmonary, 1.47 % (95 %CI: 1.00, 1.94) for IHD, and 0.75 % (95 %CI: 0.24, 1.28) for stroke. In addition, the PM10 effects of high temperature days were stronger for those aged 65 years and over.

Conclusion

Season and temperature could modify the adverse effects of PM10. An increase in hot summer days caused by climate change may enhance the risks of air pollution on human health. More attention should be paid to older populations, especially in summer and days with high temperatures.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aga E, Samoli E, Touloumi G, Anderson HR, Cadum E, Forsberg B, Goodman P, Goren A, Kotesovec F, Kriz B, Macarol-Hiti M, Medina S, Paldy A, Schindler C, Sunyer J, Tittanen P, Wojtyniak B, Zmirou D, Schwartz J, Katsouyanni K (2003) Short-term effects of ambient particles on mortality in the elderly: results from 28 cities in the APHEA2 project. Eur Respir J Suppl 40:28s–33s

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Basu R, Samet JM (2002) Relation between elevated ambient temperature and mortality: a review of the epidemiologic evidence. Epidemiol Rev 24(2):190–202

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Bell ML, McDermott A, Zeger SL, Samet JM, Dominici F (2004) Ozone and short-term mortality in 95 US urban communities, 1987–2000. JAMA 292(19):2372–2378

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Bouchama A, Knochel JP (2002) Heat stroke. N Engl J Med 346(25):1978–1988

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Carder M, McNamee R, Beverland I, Elton R, Cohen GR, Boyd J, Agius RM (2005) The lagged effect of cold temperature and wind chill on cardiorespiratory mortality in Scotland. Occup Environ Med 62(10):702–710

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Galindo N, Nicolas JF, Yubero E, Caballero S, Pastor C, Crespo J (2008) Factors affecting levels of aerosol sulfate and nitrate on the Western Mediterranean coast. Atmos Res 88(3–4):305–313

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Guo Y, Barnett AG, Pan X, Yu W, Tong S (2011) The impact of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China: a case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model. Environ Health Perspect. doi:10.1289/ehp. 1103598

  • Hagler GSW, Bergin MH, Salmon LG, Yu JZ (2006) Source areas and chemical composition of fine particulate matter in the Pearl River delta region of China. Atmos Environ 40(20):3802–3815

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Kan H, Chen B (2003) Air pollution and daily mortality in Shanghai: a time-series study. Arch Environ Health 58(6):360–367

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Kan H, London SJ, Chen G, Zhang Y, Song G, Zhao N, Jiang L, Chen B (2008) Season, sex, age, and education as modifiers of the effects of outdoor air pollution on daily mortality in Shanghai, China: the Public Health and Air Pollution in Asia (PAPA) Study. Environ Health Perspect 116(9):1183–1188

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Keatinge WR, Coleshaw SR, Easton JC, Cotter F, Mattock MB, Chelliah R (1986) Increased platelet and red cell counts, blood viscosity, and plasma cholesterol levels during heat stress, and mortality from coronary and cerebral thrombosis. Am J Med 81(5):795–800

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Keller CF (2007) Global warming, 2007. An update to global warming: the balance of evidence and its policy implications. Sci World J 7:381–399

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kwon HJ, Cho SH, Nyberg F, Pershagen G (2001) Effects of ambient air pollution on daily mortality in a cohort of patients with congestive heart failure. Epidemiology 12(4):413–419

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Liu YX, Li X, Zhang Q, Guo YF, Wang JP (2010) Simulation of regional temperature and precipitation in the past 50 years and the next 30 years over China. Quat Int 212(1):57–63

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Macdonald RW, Harner T, Fyfe J (2005) Recent climate change in the Arctic and its impact on contaminant pathways and interpretation of temporal trend data. Sci Total Environ 342(1–3):5–86

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • McMichael AJ, Wilkinson P, Kovats RS, Pattenden S, Hajat S, Armstrong B, Vajanapoom N, Niciu EM, Mahomed H, Kingkeow C, Kosnik M, O'Neill MS, Romieu I, Ramirez-Aguilar M, Barreto ML, Gouveia N, Nikiforov B (2008) International study of temperature, heat and urban mortality: the ‘ISOTHURM’ project. Int J Epidemiol 37(5):1121–1131

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Morris RD, Naumova EN (1998) Carbon monoxide and hospital admissions for congestive heart failure: evidence of an increased effect at low temperatures. Environ Health Perspect 106(10):649–653

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Nawrot TS, Torfs R, Fierens F, De Henauw S, Hoet PH, Van Kersschaever G, De Backer G, Nemery B (2007) Stronger associations between daily mortality and fine particulate air pollution in summer than in winter: evidence from a heavily polluted region in Western Europe. J Epidemiol Community Health 61(2):146–149

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Omori T, Fujimoto G, Yoshimura I, Nitta H, Ono M (2003) Effects of particulate matter on daily mortality in 13 Japanese cities. J Epidemiol 13(6):314–322

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Ostro BD, Broadwin R, Lipsett MJ (2000) Coarse and fine particles and daily mortality in the Coachella Valley, California: a follow-up study. J Expo Anal Environ Epidemiol 10(5):412–419

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Park AK, Hong YC, Kim H (2011) Effect of changes in season and temperature on mortality associated with air pollution in Seoul, Korea. J Epidemiol Community Health. doi:jech.2009.089896

  • Peng RD, Dominici F, Pastor-Barriuso R, Zeger SL, Samet JM (2005) Seasonal analyses of air pollution and mortality in 100 US cities. Am J Epidemiol 161(6):585–594

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Peters A, Dockery DW, Muller JE, Mittleman MA (2001a) Increased particulate air pollution and the triggering of myocardial infarction. Circulation 103(23):2810–2815

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Peters A, Frohlich M, Doring A, Immervoll T, Wichmann HE, Hutchinson WL, Pepys MB, Koenig W (2001b) Particulate air pollution is associated with an acute phase response in men; results from the MONICA-Augsburg Study. Eur Heart J 22(14):1198–1204

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Pope CA 3rd, Burnett RT, Thun MJ, Calle EE, Krewski D, Ito K, Thurston GD (2002) Lung cancer, cardiopulmonary mortality, and long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution. JAMA 287(9):1132–1141

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Qian Z, He Q, Liu HM, et al. (2008) High temperatures enhanced acute mortality effects of ambient particle pollution in the “oven” city of Wuhan, China. Environ Health Perspect 116(9):1172–1178

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Qian Z, Lin HM, Stewart WF, Kong L, Xu F, Zhou D, Zhu Z, Liang S, Chen W, Shah N, Stetter C, He Q (2010) Seasonal pattern of the acute mortality effects of air pollution. J Air Waste Manag Assoc 60(4):481–488

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Ren C, Williams GM, Mengersen K, Morawska L, Tong S (2008) Does temperature modify short-term effects of ozone on total mortality in 60 large eastern US communities? An assessment using the NMMAPS data. Environ Int 34(4):451–458

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Roberts S (2004) Biologically plausible particulate air pollution mortality concentration-response functions. Environ Health Perspect 112(3):309–313

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Rossi G, Vigotti MA, Zanobetti A, Repetto F, Gianelle V, Schwartz J (1999) Air pollution and cause-specific mortality in Milan, Italy, 1980–1989. Arch Environ Health 54(3):158–164

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Samet JM, Dominici F, Curriero FC, Coursac I, Zeger SL (2000) Fine particulate air pollution and mortality in 20 U.S. cities, 1987–1994. N Engl J Med 343(24):1742–1749

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Schwartz J, Ballester F, Saez M, Perez-Hoyos S, Bellido J, Cambra K, Arribas F, Canada A, Perez-Boillos MJ, Sunyer J (2001) The concentration-response relation between air pollution and daily deaths. Environ Health Perspect 109(10):1001–1006

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Shanghai Statistical Bureau (2011) Shanghai statistical year book. SSB, Shanghaihttp://wwwstats-shgovcn/tjnj/nj11htm?d1=2011tjnj/C0920htm. Accessed July 2012

  • Stafoggia M, Schwartz J, Forastiere F, Perucci CA (2008) Does temperature modify the association between air pollution and mortality? A multicity case-crossover analysis in Italy. Am J Epidemiol 167(12):1476–1485

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Sunyer J, Schwartz J, Tobias A, Macfarlane D, Garcia J, Anto JM (2000) Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease are at increased risk of death associated with urban particle air pollution: a case-crossover analysis. Am J Epidemiol 151(1):50–56

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Tianjin Statistical Bureau (2010) Tianjin Statistical Bulletin. TSB, Tianjin, China.http://wwwstats-tjgovcn/Article/tjgb/stjgb/201203/20337html. Accessed July 2012

  • Vichit-Vadakan N, Vajanapoom N, Ostro B (2008) The Public Health and Air Pollution in Asia (PAPA) Project: estimating the mortality effects of particulate matter in Bangkok, Thailand. Environ Health Perspect 116(9):1179–1182

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Wong TW, Tam WS, Yu TS, Wong AH (2002) Associations between daily mortalities from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and air pollution in Hong Kong, China. Occup Environ Med 59(1):30–35

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Wong CM, Vichit-Vadakan N, Kan H, Qian Z (2008) Public health and air pollution in Asia (PAPA): a multicity study of short-term effects of air pollution on mortality. Environ Health Perspect 116(9):1195–1202

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Yi O, Hong YC, Kim H (2009) Seasonal effect of PM(10) concentrations on mortality and morbidity in Seoul, Korea: a temperature-matched case-crossover analysis. Environ Res 110(1):89–95

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zeger SL, Thomas D, Dominici F, Samet JM, Schwartz J, Dockery D, Cohen A (2000) Exposure measurement error in time-series studies of air pollution: concepts and consequences. Environ Health Perspect 108(5):419–426

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Zeka A, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J (2006) Individual-level modifiers of the effects of particulate matter on daily mortality. Am J Epidemiol 163(9):849–859

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System and Tianjin Municipal Environmental Monitoring Center for providing data. We also thank Dr. Graeme Lindsay, Population Health School of Auckland University for his kindly help and advice on this manuscript. This project is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China, No: 30972433; Peking University Health Science Center Young Teacher Fund: BMU20110244; Public Health School of Peking University Health Science Center Young Teacher Fund.

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Occupational & Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Center, No. 38, Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing City, 100191, People’s Republic of China

    Guo Xing Li, Ya Juan Zhang & Xiao Chuan Pan

  2. The Center for Public Health Surveillance and Information Service, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 155, Changbai Road, Changping District, Beijing City, 102206, People’s Republic of China

    Mai Geng Zhou & Yue Cai

  3. Room 709, Department of Occupational & Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Center, Haidian District, Beijing City, 100191, People’s Republic of China

    Guo Xing Li

  4. Room 706, Department of Occupational & Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Center, Haidian District, Beijing City, 100191, People’s Republic of China

    Xiao Chuan Pan

Authors
  1. Guo Xing Li
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Mai Geng Zhou
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Ya Juan Zhang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Yue Cai
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Xiao Chuan Pan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Guo Xing Li or Xiao Chuan Pan.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Li, G.X., Zhou, M.G., Zhang, Y.J. et al. Seasonal effects of PM10 concentrations on mortality in Tianjin, China: a time-series analysis. J Public Health 21, 135–144 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10389-012-0529-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10389-012-0529-4

Keywords

Search

Navigation