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Climate change, predictive modelling and grassland specialists: assessing impacts of changing climate on the long-term conservation of Lesser Grey Shrikes (Lanius minor) in Romania

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Abstract

Climate change is considered one of the greatest challenges that current biodiversity is facing. Successful adaptation of different species to climate-related changes depends on their ability to follow the habitat shift by modifying their range. We assessed the projected future range changes for a grassland specialist bird using two available climate scenarios. The model subject, the Lesser Grey Shrike (Lanius minor), is a vulnerable grassland specialist, distributed in southeastern Europe, with its European population concentrated in Romania. We created a distribution model for the species using data provided by the national Common Bird Monitoring Programme for the years 2002–2005. Several different statistical models, based on the generalised linear model and multivariate adaptive regression splines, were tested with use of the available habitat and climate data. The final working model was selected by means of the lowest root mean square error from the cross-validation process. The model was tested against two climate scenarios—A1 (integrated world, rapid economic growth) and B2 (regional development, environmentally friendly scenario)—on a long-term (2050) scale. To assess the efficiency of site-based conservation (Natura 2000 sites) as the only tool currently in place for the preservation of Lesser Grey Shrike populations in Romania, we evaluated the mean changes in suitable habitats inside the national protected area network. The projected changes show large-scale reduction of suitable habitats, both inside protected areas and at the national level, due to the forecasted shifts in grassland belts. Our results show that under both scenarios, two thirds of the seminatural grasslands will be out of the recent protected area system by 2050. Small protected areas will lose more habitats than larger ones, irrespective of the Lesser Grey Shrike populations breeding therein. These results suggest that current site-based protection measures will become largely insufficient for the conservation of seminatural grasslands and the associated flora and fauna in the long term in Romania.

Zusammenfassung

Klimawandel, Modellvoraussagen und Weidelandspezialisten: Einschätzung der Bedeutung des sich ändernden Klimas auf den langfristigen Schutz von Schwarzstirnwürgern ( Lanius minor ) in Rumänien Der Klimawandel gilt als eine der größten Herausforderungen, mit denen die derzeitige Artenvielfalt konfrontiert ist. Eine erfolgreiche Anpassung verschiedener Arten an klimatisch bedingte Veränderungen hängt von ihrer Fähigkeit ab, der Verschiebung des Lebensraumes durch eine Änderung ihres Verbreitungsgebietes zu begegnen. Wir schätzten die zu erwartenden zukünftigen Änderungen in der Verbreitung einer auf Weideland spezialisierten Vogelart basierend auf zwei zur Verfügung stehenden Klimaszenarien. Die Modellart, der in Südosteuropa verbreitete Schwarzstirnwürger (Lanius minor), ist ein gefährdeter Weidelandspezialist, dessen europäische Population ihren Schwerpunkt in Rumänien hat. Auf der Grundlage von Daten aus dem nationalen Monitoring häufiger Brutvogelarten aus den Jahren 2002-2005 erstellten wir ein Verbreitungsmodell für die Art. Wir testeten eine Reihe verschiedener statistischer Modelle auf der Grundlage Generalisierter Linearer Modelle (GLM) und Multivariater Regressiver Regressions-Splinen (MARS), unter Verwendung der verfügbaren Habitat- und Klimadaten. Das endgültige Arbeitsmodell wurde anhand des niedrigsten RMSE-Wertes aus dem Kreuzvalidierungsprozess ausgewählt. Dieses Modell wurde für zwei Klimaszenarien A1 (Globalisierung, schnelles Wirtschaftswachstum) und B2 (regionale Entwicklung, umweltfreundliches Szenario) im langfristigen Maßstab (bis 2050) getestet. Um die Wirksamkeit von flächenbezogenen Schutzmaßnahmen (Natura 2000-Gebiete) zu beurteilen, welche derzeit das einzige Mittel zum Erhalt der rumänischen Schwarzstirnwürger-Populationen darstellen, bewerteten wir die mittleren Veränderungen an geeigneten Lebensräumen innerhalb des Netzwerkes nationaler Schutzgebiete. Die vermuteten Veränderungen zeigen großflächiges Verschwinden geeigneter Habitate, sowohl innerhalb der Schutzgebiete als auch auf Landesebene, aufgrund der zu erwartenden Verschiebungen der Weidelandgürtel. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass bei beiden Szenarien bis 2050 zwei Drittel des halbnatürlichen Weidelandes außerhalb des derzeitigen Netzwerkes von Schutzgebieten liegen wird. Kleinere Schutzgebiete werden höhere Habitatverluste erleiden als größere, unabhängig davon, ob dort Schwarzstirnwürger-Populationen brüten. Diese Befunde legen nahe, dass die derzeitigen flächenbezogenen Schutzmaßnahmen in Rumänien langfristig zum Erhalt des halbnatürlichen Weidelandes und der dort lebenden Flora und Fauna nicht mehr ausreichen werden.

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Acknowledgements

The Common Bird Monitoring Programme in Romania is implemented by the Romanian Ornithological Society, the Milvus Group and Babes-Bolyai University, Cluj, and was supported by the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds and the European Bird Census Council (through the Pan-European Common Bird Monitoring Scheme), and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (2009–2010). We thank all the volunteers who participated in the field surveys. András Báldi commented on the manuscript, significantly improving its contents.

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  1. Department of Parasitology and Parasitic Diseases, University of Agricultural Sciences and Veterinary Medicine Cluj-Napoca, Calea Mănăştur 3-5, 400372, Cluj-Napoca, Romania

    Attila D. Sándor & Cristian Domşa

  2. Romanian Ornithological Society, Bd. Hristo Botev nr. 3/6, 030231, Bucharest, Romania

    Cristian Domşa

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  1. Attila D. Sándor
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Correspondence to Attila D. Sándor.

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Communicated by F. Bairlein.

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Sándor, A.D., Domşa, C. Climate change, predictive modelling and grassland specialists: assessing impacts of changing climate on the long-term conservation of Lesser Grey Shrikes (Lanius minor) in Romania. J Ornithol 159, 413–424 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10336-017-1510-3

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