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Climate change effects on the marine characteristics of the Aegean and Ionian Seas

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Abstract

This paper addresses the effects of estimated climate change on the sea-surface dynamics of the Aegean and Ionian Seas (AIS). The main aim is the identification of climate change impacts on the severity and frequency of extreme storm surges and waves in areas of the AIS prone to flooding. An attempt is made to define design levels for future research on coastal protection in Greece. Extreme value analysis is implemented through a nonstationary generalized extreme value distribution function, incorporating time harmonics in its parameters, by means of statistically defined criteria. A 50-year time span analysis is adopted and changes of means and extremes are determined. A Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) is implemented with dynamical downscaling, forced by ECHAM5 fields under 20C3M historical data for the twentieth century and the SRES-A1B scenario for the twenty-first century. Storm surge and wave models (GreCSSM and SWAN, respectively) are used for marine climate simulations. Comparisons of model results with reanalysis and field data of atmospheric and hydrodynamic characteristics, respectively, are in good agreement. Our findings indicate that the dynamically downscaled RegCM3 simulation adequately reproduces the present general circulation patterns over the Mediterranean and Greece. Future changes in sea level pressure and mean wind fields are estimated to be small, yet significant for marine extremes. In general, we estimate a projected intensification of severe wave and storm surge events during the first half of the twenty-first century and a subsequent storminess attenuation leading to the resettlement of milder extreme marine events with increased prediction uncertainty in the second half of the twenty-first century.

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Abbreviations

AICc:

Akaike Information Criterion correction

AIS:

Aegean and Ionian Seas

AVISO:

Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic data

BACC:

BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea basin

CCI:

Climate Change Index (symbol: CCI)

CDF:

Cumulative distribution function

EI:

Error Index (symbol: EI)

EVT:

Extreme Value Theory

GCM:

Global Climate Model

GEV:

Generalized extreme value

GEBCO:

General Bathymetric Chart of the Ocean

GRACE:

Gravity Research And Climate Experiment (NASA)

GreCSSM:

Greek Climatic Storm Surge Model

HNHS:

Hellenic Navy Hydrographic Service

HRP:

Hit rate of percentiles (symbol: HRP)

IFS:

Integrated Forecast System

IPCC:

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change

MAE:

Mean absolute error

MeCSSM:

Mediterranean Climatic Storm Surge Model

MLEs:

Maximum likelihood estimates (symbol: MLEs)

MSL:

Mean sea level (symbol: MSL)

NAO:

North Atlantic Oscillation

POT:

Peaks over threshold

RCM:

Regional Climatic Model

RegCM3:

Regional Climate Model 3rd version

SLH:

Sea level height (due to storm surges) (symbol: SLH)

SLP:

Sea level pressure (in the atmosphere) (symbol: SLP)

SLR:

Sea level rise (long-term) (symbol: SLR)

SRES:

Special Report on Emission Scenarios

SSI:

Storm Surge Index (symbol: SSI)

SWAN:

Simulating WAves Nearshore

SWH:

Significant wave height (symbol: H s )

WAM:

WAve prediction Model

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Acknowledgments

This research has been co-financed by the European Union (European Social Fund—ESF) and Greek national funds through the Operational Program “Education and Lifelong Learning” of the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF)—Research Funding Program: Thales. Investing in knowledge society through the European Social Fund (Project CCSEAWAVS: Estimating the effects of Climate change on SEA level and WAve climate of the Greek seas, coastal Vulnerability and Safety of coastal and marine structures). The tide-gauge data of sea level variations, used for the validation of the storm surge model, were provided from the HNHS (http://www.hnhs.gr/portal/page/portal/HNHS). Satellite altimetry data were obtained from AVISO (http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratory of Maritime Engineering, Division of Hydraulics and Environmental Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, GR-54124, Thessaloniki, Greece

    Christos Makris, Katerina Kombiadou, Yannis Androulidakis, Vassilis Baltikas & Yannis Krestenitis

  2. Laboratory of Hydraulics, Division of Hydraulics and Environmental Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, GR-54124, Thessaloniki, Greece

    Panagiota Galiatsatou & Panayotis Prinos

  3. Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology, Faculty of Sciences, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, GR-54124, Thessaloniki, Greece

    Konstantia Tolika, Christina Anagnostopoulou, Kondylia Velikou, Christos Vagenas & Ioannis Tegoulias

  4. Section of Ship and Marine Hydrodynamics, School of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 9, Heroon Polytechniou str., Zographos, Athens, GR-15773, Greece

    Zacharias Kapelonis, Gerasimos Athanassoulis & Kostantinos Belibassakis

  5. Department of Marine Sciences, University of the Aegean, University Hill, GR-81100, Mytilene, Lesvos Island, Greece

    Elina Tragou

  6. Department of Naval Architecture, Faculty of Technological Applications, Technological Institute of Athens, Aegaleo, Athens, GR-12210, Greece

    Theodoros Gerostathis

  7. Department of Applied Mechanics, Dunarea de Jos Galati University, 9 Traian St., Bl. W3 Ap. 11, Galati, 6200, Romania

    Eugen Rusu

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  1. Christos Makris
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Correspondence to Christos Makris.

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Makris, C., Galiatsatou, P., Tolika, K. et al. Climate change effects on the marine characteristics of the Aegean and Ionian Seas. Ocean Dynamics 66, 1603–1635 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-016-1008-1

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