Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Rice yield development and the shrinking yield gaps in China, 1981–2008

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Regional Environmental Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Increasing population, limited land resources, and the demand for environmental protection highlight the urgency of improving crop yield on the limited cultivated land. To identify a possible food supply under a sustainable intensification of agricultural production, it is necessary to accurately estimate yield potentials and yield gaps. Here, we used a well-validated, large-scale process-based crop model, Model to capture the Crop-weather relationship over a Large Area for rice, and an ensemble model simulation method to estimate the yield potential across the rice planting area of China. We further evaluated the spatiotemporal patterns of actual yield, yield potential, and yield gap over the past three decades. Rice yield showed an increasing trend in more than 95% of the studied counties. However, 48.3% of the counties were already experiencing yield stagnation. The yield potential in northeast China had increased over the past three decades by 20–40 kg/ha per year because of the increase in temperature, while the increased temperature and decreased solar radiation reduced the yield potentials in other regions by 10–30 kg/ha per year. Because of changes in the actual yield and yield potential, the yield gap decreased in 93.4% of the counties by an average of 0.5–2% per year, resulting in less room for yield improvement. Additionally, 65.9% of the counties had nearly approached their yield ceilings (>70% of the yield potential). Our study highlights that popularizing advanced management technologies to close yield gaps and breeding climate-resilient cultivars to expand yield potentials should be of equal importance for the sustainable development of agricultural production and food security.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alexandratos N, Bruinsma J (2012) World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision. FAO: ESA Working paper, Rome

    Google Scholar 

  • Bondeau A, Smith PC, Zaehle S, Schaphoff S, Lucht W, Cramer W, Gerten D, Lotze-Campen H, Müller C, Reichstein M, Smith B (2007) Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance. Glob Chang Biol 13:679–706. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01305.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brisson N, Gate P, Gouache D, Charmet G, Oury F, Huard F (2010) Why are wheat yields stagnating in Europe? A comprehensive data analysis for France. Field Crop Res 119:201–212. doi:10.1016/j.fcr.2010.07.012

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bruinsma, J (2009) The resource outlook to 2050: by how much do land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? FAO expert meeting on how to feed the world in 2050; 2009/06

  • Cassman KG, Dobermann A, Walters DT, Yang H (2003) Meeting cereal demand while protecting natural resources and improving environmental quality. Annu Rev Environ Resour 28:315–358. doi:10.1146/annurev.energy.28.040202.122858

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cassman KG, Grassini P, van Wart J (2010) Crop yield potential, yield trends, and global food security in a changing climate. In: Rosenzweig C, Illel D (ed) Handbook of climate change and agroecosystems. Imperial College Press, London, pp 37–51. doi:10.1142/9781848166561_0004

  • Chen Y, Peng J, Wang J, Fu P, Hou Y, Zhang C, Fahad S, Peng S, Cui K, Nie L (2015) Crop management based on multi-split topdressing enhances grain yield and nitrogen use efficiency in irrigated rice in China. Field Crop Res 184:50–57. doi:10.1016/j.fcr.2015.09.006

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen Y, Zhang Z, Wang P, Song X, Wei X, Tao F (2016) Identifying the impact of multi-hazards on crop yield—a case for heat stress and dry stress on winter wheat yield in northern China. Eur J Agron 73:55–63. doi:10.1016/j.eja.2015.10.009

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Confalonieri R, Bregaglio S, Adam M, Ruget F, Li T, Hasegawa T, Yin X, Zhu Y, Boote K, Buis S, Fumoto T, Gaydon D, Lafarge T, Marcaida M, Nakagawa H, Ruane AC, Singh B, Singh U, Tang L, Tao F, Fugice J, Yoshida H, Zhang Z, Wilson LT, Baker J, Yang Y, Masutomi Y, Wallach D, Acutis M, Bouman B (2016) A taxonomy-based approach to shed light on the babel of mathematical models for rice simulations. Environ Model Softw 85:332–341. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.09.007

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • de Wit AJW, Boogaard HL, van Diepen CA (2005) Spatial resolution of precipitation and radiation: the effect on regional crop yield forecasts. Agric For Meteorol 135:156–168. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2005.11.012

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • FAOSTAT (2015) http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#home

  • Godfray HCJ, Beddington JR, Crute IR, Haddad L, Lawrence D, Muir JF, Pretty J, Robinson S, Thomas SM, Toulmin C (2010) Food security: the challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science 327:812–818. doi:10.1126/science.1185383

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Grassini P, Eskridge KM, Cassman KG (2013) Distinguishing between yield advances and yield plateaus in historical crop production trends. Nat Commun 4:2918. doi:10.1038/ncomms3918

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haxeltine A, Prentice IC (1996) BIOME3: an equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model based on ecophysiological constraints, resource availability, and competition among plant functional types. Global Biogeochem Cy 10:693–709. doi:10.1029/96GB02344

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Horie T, Nakagawa H, Centeno H, Kropff MJ (1995) The rice crop simulation model SIMRIW and its testing. In: Matthews RB, Bachelet D, Kropff MJ, van Laar HH (eds) Modeling the impact of climate change on rice production in Asia. CAB International, Wallingford, pp 51–66

    Google Scholar 

  • Iizumi T, Yokozawa M, Sakurai G, Travasso MI, Romanenkov V, Oettli P, Newby T, Ishigooka Y, Furuya J (2014) Historical changes in global yields: major cereal and legume crops from 1982 to 2006. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 23:346–357. doi:10.1111/geb.12120

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jagtap SS, Jones JW (2002) Adaptation and evaluation of the CROPGRO-soybean model to predict regional yield and production. Agric Ecosyst Environ 93:73–85. doi:10.1016/S0167-8809(01)00358-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jiang X, Liang T, Liu X, Cao W, Yan Z (2013) Spatial and temporal characteristics of rice potential productivity and potential yield increment in main production regions of China. J Integr Agr 12:45–56. doi:10.1016/S2095-3119(13)60204-X

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Katsura K, Maeda S, Lubis I, Horie T, Cao W, Shiraiwa T (2008) The high yield of irrigated rice in Yunnan, China: ‘a cross-location analysis’. Field Crop Res 107:1–11. doi:10.1016/j.fcr.2007.12.007

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li K, Yang X, Liu Z, Zhang T, Lu S, Liu Y (2014) Low yield gap of winter wheat in the North China Plain. Eur J Agron 59:1–12. doi:10.1016/j.eja.2014.04.007

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li T, Hasegawa T, Yin X, Zhu Y, Boote K, Adam M, Bregaglio S, Buis S, Confalonieri R, Fumoto T (2015) Uncertainties in predicting rice yield by current crop models under a wide range of climatic conditions. Glob Chang Biol 21:1328–1341. doi:10.1111/gcb.12758

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Licker R, Johnston M, Foley JA, Barford C, Kucharik CJ, Monfreda C, Ramankutty N (2010) Mind the gap: how do climate and agricultural management explain the ‘yield gap’ of croplands around the world? Glob Ecol Biogeogr 19:769–782. doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00563.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lobell DB, Cassman KG, Field CB (2009) Crop yield gaps: their importance, magnitudes, and causes. Annu Rev Environ Resour 34:179. doi:10.1146/annurev.environ.041008.093740

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lu C, Fan L (2013) Winter wheat yield potentials and yield gaps in the North China Plain. Field Crop Res 143:98–105. doi:10.1016/j.fcr.2012.09.015

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Montzka SA, Dlugokencky EJ, Butler JH (2011) Non-CO2 greenhouse gases and climate change. Nature 476:43–50. doi:10.1038/nature10322

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Peng S, Tang Q, Zou Y (2009) Current status and challenges of rice production in China. Plant Prod Sci 12:3–8. doi:10.1626/pps.12.3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pittelkow CM, Adviento-Borbe MA, Kessel C, Hill JE, Linquist BA (2014) Optimizing rice yields while minimizing yield—scaled global warming potential. Glob Chang Biol 20:1382–1393. doi:10.1111/gcb.12413

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ramankutty N, Foley JA, Norman J, McSweeney K (2002) The global distribution of cultivable lands: current patterns and sensitivity to possible climate change. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 11:377–392. doi:10.1046/j.1466-822x.2002.00294.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ray DK, Ramankutty N, Mueller ND, West PC, Foley JA (2012) Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation. Nat Commun 3:1293. doi:10.1038/ncomms2296

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Searchinger T, Heimlich R, Houghton RA, Dong F, Elobeid A, Fabiosa J, Tokgoz S, Hayes D, Yu T (2008) Use of US croplands for biofuels increases greenhouse gases through emissions from land-use change. Science 319:1238–1240. doi:10.1126/science.1151861

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Seck PA, Diagne A, Mohanty S, Wopereis MC (2012) Crops that feed the world 7: rice. Food Secur 4:7–24. doi:10.1007/s12571-012-0168-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shuai J, Zhang Z, Liu X, Chen Y, Wang P, Shi P (2013) Increasing concentrations of aerosols offset the benefits of climate warming on rice yields during 1980–2008 in Jiangsu Province, China. Reg Environ Chang 13:287–297. doi:10.1007/s10113-012-0332-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sitch S, Smith B, Prentice IC, Arneth A, Bondeau A, Cramer W, Kaplan JO, Levis S, Lucht W, Sykes MT (2003) Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model. Glob Chang Biol 9:161–185. doi:10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00569.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tao F, Zhang Z (2013) Climate change, high-temperature stress, rice productivity, and water use in eastern China: a new superensemble-based probabilistic projection. J Appl Meteorol Clim 52:531–551. doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-12-0100.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tao F, Yokozawa M, Liu J, Zhang Z (2008) Climate-crop yield relationships at provincial scales in China and the impacts of recent climate trends. Clim Res 38:83–94. doi:10.3354/cr00771

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tao F, Yokozawa M, Zhang Z (2009) Modelling the impacts of weather and climate variability on crop productivity over a large area: a new process-based model development, optimization, and uncertainties analysis. Agric For Meteorol 149:831–850. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2008.11.004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tao F, Zhang S, Zhang Z, Rötter RP (2015) Temporal and spatial changes of maize yield potentials and yield gaps in the past three decades in China. Agric Ecosyst Environ 208:12–20. doi:10.1016/j.agee.2015.04.020

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tilman D, Balzer C, Hill J, Befort BL (2011) Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture. Proc Natl Acad Sci 108:20260–20264. doi:10.1073/pnas.1116437108

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Wang P, Zhang Z, Chen Y, Wei X, Feng B, Tao F (2016) How much yield loss has been caused by extreme temperature stress to the irrigated rice production in China? Clim Chang 134(4):635–650. doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1545-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van Ittersum MK, Cassman KG, Grassini P, Wolf J, Tittonell P, Hochman Z (2013) Yield gap analysis with local to global relevance—a review. Field Crop Res 143:4–17. doi:10.1016/j.fcr.2012.09.009

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van Wart J, Kersebaum KC, Peng S, Milner M, Cassman KG (2013) Estimating crop yield potential at regional to national scales. Field Crop Res 143:34–43. doi:10.1016/j.fcr.2012.11.018

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wei X, Zhang Z, Shi P, Wang P, Chen Y, Song X, Tao F (2015) Is yield increase sufficient to achieve food security in China? PLoS One 10(2):e0116430. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0116430

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xiong W, Conway D, Lin E, Holman I (2009) Potential impacts of climate change and climate variability on China’s rice yield and production. Clim Res 40:23–35. doi:10.3354/cr00802

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yuan W, Xu B, Chen Z, Xia J, Xu W, Chen Y, Wu X, Fu Y (2014) Validation of China-wide interpolated daily climate variables from 1960 to 2011. Theor Appl Climatol 119:689–700. doi:10.1007/s00704-014-1140-0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zeng X, Zhang J, Wei C, Yu W, Huang D, Xu M, Xu J (2014) The status and reclamation strategy of low-yield fields in China. Acta Pedol Sin 51:675–682 (In Chinese with English abstract). doi:10.11766/trxb201401150029

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang X, Wang D, Fang F, Zhen Y, Liao X (2005) Food safety and rice production in China. Res Agric Modernization 26:85–88 (in Chinese with English abstract). doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0275.2005.02.002

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang T, Yang X, Wang H, Li Y, Ye Q (2014) Climatic and technological ceilings for Chinese rice stagnation based on yield gaps and yield trend pattern analysis. Glob Chang Biol 20:1289–1298. doi:10.1111/gcb.12428

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zöbler L (1986) A world soil file for global climate modelling. NASA Tech Memo 87802

Download references

Acknowledgments

This study was funded by the Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 31561143003, 41571493, and 41571088), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Project No. 2016YFD0300201), and State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Hazards, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Yi Chen, Zhao Zhang & Xing Wei

  2. Institute of Remote Sensing and Earth Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou, 311121, China

    Pin Wang

  3. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

    Fulu Tao

  4. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

    Fulu Tao

  5. Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), FI-00790, Helsinki, Finland

    Fulu Tao

Authors
  1. Yi Chen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Pin Wang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Zhao Zhang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Fulu Tao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Xing Wei
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Zhao Zhang.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Editor: Wolfgang Cramer

Electronic supplementary material

.

ESM 1

(DOCX 172 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Chen, Y., Wang, P., Zhang, Z. et al. Rice yield development and the shrinking yield gaps in China, 1981–2008. Reg Environ Change 17, 2397–2408 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1168-7

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1168-7

Keywords

Search

Navigation