Abstract
Displacement prediction is critical for the early detection of landslides, and the empirical, statistical, and machine learning models have been commonly used. In the Three Gorges reservoir area (TGRA), many landslides experience step-like deformations due to the periodic change of influencing factors. In this study, a novel and dynamic model is proposed to predict the displacements of step-like landslides. Two typical landslides in the TGRA are taken as case studies. Variational mode decomposition (VMD) is used to decompose the cumulative displacements into stochastic, periodic, and trend components. The influencing factors are decomposed into low-frequency and high-frequency components. Two principles, including the physical connotation and minimum sample entropy, are employed to optimize the VMD parameters. The trend displacement is fitted and predicted by a polynomial expression with an optimized order, and the periodic and stochastic displacements are dynamically modeled by the bidirectional long short-term memory (LSTM) model. The cumulative displacement prediction is the addition of the three displacement components. The proposed model has been shown to exhibit superior performance in the displacement prediction of step-like landslides. To achieve acceptable prediction, a size ratio between the training and testing datasets greater than or equal to five is recommended. The min–max and zero-mean normalizations are applicable to the data preprocessing of this work.
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Acknowledgements
We want to express our gratitude to the National Cryosphere Desert Data Center/National Service Center for Specialty Environmental Observation Stations formaking available valuable research data on historical landslides. Special thanks are given to the anonymous reviewers who have helped to improve the paper.
Funding
This study was supported by the China National Natural Science Foundation (Grant Nos. 11902128, 41762021) and the Applied Basic Research Foundation of Yunnan Province, China (Grant Nos. 2019FI012, 2018FB093).
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Zhang, K., Zhang, K., Cai, C. et al. Displacement prediction of step-like landslides based on feature optimization and VMD-Bi-LSTM: a case study of the Bazimen and Baishuihe landslides in the Three Gorges, China. Bull Eng Geol Environ 80, 8481–8502 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-021-02454-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-021-02454-5