Abstract
Synoptic temperature variability gives rise to cold waves and extreme cold events in winter. Based on four reanalysis datasets, this study investigates the decadal trend of synoptic temperature variability in boreal winter during the period from 1980 to 2019, with particular focus on the sharp drops in synoptic-scale temperature, which are associated with cold waves. The result shows that the synoptic-scale standard deviation of temperature decreases significantly with a trend of − 0.15 K/decade (− 0.09 to − 0.21 K/decade among reanalysis datasets) over continental regions in mid-high latitudes. Correspondingly, the rapid cooling events (RCEs), defined based on the day-to-day temperature decrease exceeding 6 K, also show a general decreasing trend in terms of their frequency and intensity. The strongest decrease occurs over eastern North America (ENA) and western Eurasia (WE). The weakening of the RCEs is closely connected to the decreased trend of eddy kinetic energy (EKE), suggesting that the weakened transient eddy activities may have mitigated the synoptic-scale temperature variability and the associated RCEs over mid-high latitudes. This study highlights that the decreased synoptic temperature variability leads to fewer and weaker RCEs on the synoptic scale over mid-high latitudes in winter though the mean state of winter temperature continues to warm.
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Data availability
In this study, four reanalysis datasets were obtained and as follows: The NCEP/NCAR and NCEP-DOE datasets are download from https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html and https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis2.html. TheJRA55 dataset is obtained from https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds628.0/. The ERA5 dataset is downloaded from https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-single-levels?tab=eqc.
Code availability
NCL codes used in this study are available from the corresponding author Zhenyuan Cui upon reasonable request.
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Acknowledgements
The authors wish to thank the NOAA PSL for offering NCEP/NCAR and NCEP-DOE datasets, Data Integration and Analysis System for offering JRA55 dataset, and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts for offering ERA5 dataset. The authors wish to acknowledge Prof. Shaw Chen Liu, Prof. Run Liu, Dr. Ye Liang in Jinan University and Prof. Wen Zhou in Fudan University for useful discussions.
Funding
This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (41875081) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (11621049).
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Zhenyuan Cui performed all the data analysis and wrote the initial draft of this paper. Chao He designed the study and improved the quality of writing. All authors read and approved the final version of the manuscript.
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Cui, Z., He, C. Decadal trend of synoptic temperature variability over the Northern Hemisphere in winter. Theor Appl Climatol 152, 829–842 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04423-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04423-2