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Sensitivity of physical schemes on simulation of severe cyclones over Bay of Bengal using WRF-ARW model

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Abstract

Gauging appropriate physical parameterization schemes for any numerical weather prediction model is indispensable for obtaining high accuracy in tropical cyclone forecasting. In this study, combinations of five microphysics, three cumulus convection, and two planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes are investigated with respect to track, intensity, and time of landfall to determine an optimal combination of physical schemes of the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model (version 4.0) with advanced research WRF (ARW) core. All sensitivity experiments are carried out by taking the initial and boundary conditionsfrom the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS). The simulated track, intensity, and landfall time are compared with the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) observations.

The sensitivity experiments reveal that the KF cumulus is performing better with YSU PBL along with WSM6, Ferrier (new eta), and Thompson microphysics for the track (position and time), and intensity with the least errors. Furthermore, we examined the performance of the model with the above combination of schemes on four severe landfalling cyclones (Bulbul, Hudhud, Aila, and Sidr). The root mean square error (RMSE) for central pressure gives the least value in the range of 0.4 to 8 hPa and 0.2 to 3.7 ms−1 for maximum surface wind (MSW) during landfall with YSU-KF- Ferrier combination. The equivalent potential temperature shows strong vertical mixing up to 500 hPa in the case of YSU-KF-Ferrier, which enhances the formation of warm-core, which further explains the intensity of cyclones. Overall, the track, intensity, and rainfall forecasts for the extreme cyclones considered in this study are consistent with IMD observations using YSU PBL, KF cumulus convection, and Ferrier microphysics.

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Code availability

The authors have used WRF model for cyclone simulation which is available for public.

Change history

  • 01 June 2022

    The article title was duplicate in the article.

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Acknowledgements

The authors sincerely acknowledge the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for providing the best track of the cyclone and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) for providing the analysis and forecast data used to initialize the model. We sincerely thank the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions, which further improved the manuscript.

Funding

The present study is supported by the Department of Science & Technology (DST) under the SPLICE: Climate Change Program [DST/CCP/NCC & CV/138/2017(G)].

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Ocean Atmospheric Science and Technology, Amity University Rajasthan, Kant Kalwar, Jaipur, Rajasthan, India

    Meenakshi Shenoy & P. V. S. Raju

  2. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India

    V. S. Prasad & K. B. R. R. Hari Prasad

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  1. Meenakshi Shenoy
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  2. P. V. S. Raju
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  3. V. S. Prasad
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  4. K. B. R. R. Hari Prasad
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Contributions

Meenakshi Shenoy: initializing WRF ARW model, data collection, analysis and, preparation of the initial draft of the manuscript. P. V. S. Raju: conceptualization and finalization of the manuscript. V. S. Prasad and K. B. R. R. H. Prasad: reviewing the manuscript.

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Correspondence to P. V. S. Raju.

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Shenoy, M., Raju, P.V.S., Prasad, V.S. et al. Sensitivity of physical schemes on simulation of severe cyclones over Bay of Bengal using WRF-ARW model. Theor Appl Climatol 149, 993–1007 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04102-8

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