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Climate change scenarios and the dragon fruit climatic zoning in Brazil

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Abstract

The present paper aims to compute climatological zones apt for the cultivation of pitaya based on trends in the occurrence of climate change events from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panels on Climate Change) in Brazil. We used temperature and precipitation data from 4942 cities collected on the NASA/POWER platform (National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources) from 1990 to 2020 to elaborate on the current scenario. The climate change scenarios were obtained using the CHELSA platform (Climatologies at high resolution for the earth’s land surface areas) and corresponded to the periods 2041–2060 and 2061–2080 associated with four IPCC climate change scenarios. The spatialization of the data occurred according to the bioclimatic classes designed to meet the thermal and water needs of the crop. In the current scenario, class B5 has a predominance of 37.07% of the country, characterizing the Midwest, Southeast, and Northeast regions, as well as the state of Paraná, as suitable for the cultivation of pitaya. Projections of temperature increase and reduction of accumulated rainfall were found throughout Brazil, but with greater impact in the North and Northeast regions, which had the greatest reduction of areas suitable for the cultivation of pitaya with a greater predominance of classes B8 and B9. In the South and Southeast regions, class B5 makes up a large part of the areas that remained suitable for the production of this fruit until 2080. The results suggest that climate change does not benefit the cultivation of pitaya in some regions of Brazil because the dimensions of the areas suitable for economic production are restricted.

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Funding

This study was financed in part by the IFSULDEMINAS Campus Muzambinho.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of South of Minas Gerais – IFSULDEMINAS Campus of Muzambinho, Minas Gerais, Brazil

    Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira Aparecido

  2. DCR/CNPq/FAPEPI, Federal University of Piauí, Teresina, Piauí, Brazil

    Alexson Filgueiras Dutra

  3. Graduate Program in Agronomy – IFMS Campus de Naviraí, Mato Grosso Do Sul, Brazil

    Rafael Fausto de Lima

  4. Department of Plant Science, Campus Ministro Petrônio Portella, Center of Agricultural Sciences, Federal University of Piaui, IningaTeresina, Piauí, CEP 64049-550, Brazil

    Francisco de Alcântara Neto

  5. Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Mato Grosso Do Sul – IFMS Campus de Naviraí, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

    Guilherme Botega Torsoni

  6. Federal University of Piauí, Teresina, Piauí, Brazil

    Marcos Renan Lima Leite

Authors
  1. Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira Aparecido
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  2. Alexson Filgueiras Dutra
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  3. Rafael Fausto de Lima
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  5. Guilherme Botega Torsoni
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  6. Marcos Renan Lima Leite
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Contributions

Rafael F. Lima: formal analysis, conceptualization, methodology, and investigation; Alexson F. Dutra: data curation, original draft, writing–review and editing; Lucas E. O. Aparecido: project administration, term, conceptualization, methodology, investigation, writing–original draft, and writing–review and editing; Francisco de Alcântara Neto: writing–review and editing; Guilherme Botega Torsoni: term, funding acquisition, conceptualization, and writing–review and editing; Marcos Renan Lima Leite: visualization, writing–original draft, and writing–review and editing.

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Correspondence to Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira Aparecido.

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de Oliveira Aparecido, L.E., Dutra, A.F., de Lima, R.F. et al. Climate change scenarios and the dragon fruit climatic zoning in Brazil. Theor Appl Climatol 149, 897–913 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04090-9

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