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Rainfall and sea-level variability in the face of changing El Niño: evidence from the U.S.-affiliated Pacific islands

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Abstract

The prime concerns for future disruptions in the El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO)-sensitive U.S.-affiliated Pacific islands (USAPIs) are centered on the consequences of increasing frequency of ENSO and related drought and flooding activities. Recent observations also revealed that island-specific rainfall and sea-level patterns appear to be different during the three types of El Niño events (eastern, mixed, and central Pacific). The primary motivation of the study is to identify the impacts of three different types of El Niño on rainfall and sea-level variability in USAPIs. Results reveal that different types of El Niño can lead to different variations in rainfall and sea level in the USAPIs. While the eastern Pacific and mixed El Niño events are associated with lower than normal rainfall in all USAPIs, the central Pacific El Niño events are found to be associated with enhanced rainfall in many USAPIs. Similarly, while all the USAPIs displayed lower than normal sea level during eastern Pacific and mixed El Niño events, some of the USAPIs displayed higher than normal sea level during central Pacific events. Information related to island-specific rainfall and sea-level response to different El Niño events is critical to support the short-to-mid-term planning and management in climate-sensitive sectors in the USAPIs.

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Data availability

The datasets generated during the current study are available at: https://www.weather.gov/peac/PEAC_Monthly_Call, https://uhslc.soest.hawaii.edu, and https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl. Data can also be available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

We express our grateful acknowledgements to the anonymous reviewers for their thoughtful comments. Special thanks are due to JIMAR-Director Dr. Douglas Luther for providing partial research support to the first author. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of JIMAR or NOAA or any of its subdivisions. Thanks are also due to May Izumi for proof editing and Nancy Hulbirt for drafting figures.

Funding

This research has been partially funded by the Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research (JIMAR) at the University of Hawaii at Manoa.

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Author notes

  1. Md. Rashed Chowdhury

    Present address: School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center (PEAC), Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, 96822, USA

    Md. Rashed Chowdhury

  2. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST), University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, 96822, USA

    Pao-Shin Chu

  3. National Civil Aviation and Meteorology Agency, Aéroport Léopold Sédar Senghor, BP: 8184, Dakar, Senegal

    Ousmane Ndiaye

  4. International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, 96822, USA

    James T. Potemra

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  1. Md. Rashed Chowdhury
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Correspondence to Md. Rashed Chowdhury.

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Chowdhury, M.R., Chu, PS., Ndiaye, O. et al. Rainfall and sea-level variability in the face of changing El Niño: evidence from the U.S.-affiliated Pacific islands. Meteorol Atmos Phys 134, 80 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-022-00920-7

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