Hurricanes Ivan, Jeanne, Karl (2004) and mid-latitude trough interactions

Summary

Singular vectors (SVs) constructed from the adjoint model of the U.S. Naval Operational Global Atmosphere Prediction System (NOGAPS) for three Atlantic hurricanes in 2004, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl, are examined to understand interactions between them and a mid-latitude trough system. By optimizing the perturbation energy localized in a small region centered at the 48-hour projected position of a tropical cyclone, the initial time singular vector represents the sensitive region to the final state within the specified region for a specified optimization period. For hurricane Ivan, the SV analysis reveals the merging of a shortwave mid-latitude trough and Ivan to form a new trough system. This new trough system impacted the evolution of hurricane Jeanne in subsequent time through the upstream flow of the trough that moved toward Jeanne. This is consistent with previous studies on the sensitivity of tropical cyclone prediction using SV diagnostics. The SV associated with Jeanne at later stage shows that Jeanne influenced the third hurricane Karl through the trough system as Karl went through extratropical transition and became part of the trough. This effect is magnified when the SV is computed using the moist adjoint system containing large scale precipitation. Detailed diagnostics of the SVs for individual components at different levels show that the sensitivity associated with the trough is very similar for those optimized for Jeanne and Karl, respectively, thus providing evidence that the mid-latitude trough impacted Jeanne and Karl at the same time. This study demonstrates the capability of singular vector in diagnosing complicated interactions among a mid-latitude trough and three co-existing tropical cyclones.