Abstract
Publications on ambient temperature-related mortality among Arctic or subarctic populations are extremely rare. While circumpolar areas cover large portions of several European countries, Canada, and the USA, the population of these territories is relatively small, and the data needed for statistical analysis of the health impacts of extreme temperature events are frequently insufficient. This study utilizes standard time series regression techniques to estimate relative increases in cause- and age-specific daily mortality rates during heat waves and cold spells in four Russian cities with a subarctic climate. The statistical significance of the obtained effect estimates tends to be greater in the continental climate than in the marine climate. A small meta-analysis was built around the obtained site-specific health effects. The effects were homogeneous and calculated for the selected weather-dependent health outcomes. The relative risks of mortality due to ischemic heart disease, all diseases of the circulatory system, and all non-accidental causes during cold spells in the age group ≥ 65 years were 1.20 (95% CI: 1.11–1.29), 1.14 (1.08–1.20), and 1.12 (1.07–1.17), respectively. Cold spells were more harmful to the health of the residents of Murmansk, Archangelsk, and Magadan than heat waves, and only in Yakutsk, heat waves were more dangerous. The results of this study can help the public health authorities develop specific measures for the prevention of excess deaths during cold spells and heat waves in the exposed subarctic populations.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Source: Authors’ notations on the map by Adam Peterson, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=52904892. Permanent URL: Wikimedia Commons contributors (2020) “File:Russia Köppen.svg,” Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository. . Accessed February 14, 2022
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
The retirement age in Russia is 65 for males and 60 for females.
References
Allen MJ, Sheridan SC (2018) Mortality risks during extreme temperature events (ETEs) using a distributed lag non-linear model. Int J Biometeorol 62:57–67. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-015-1117-4
Anderson BG, Bell ML (2009) Weather-related mortality: how heat, cold, and heat waves affect mortality in the United States. Epidemiology 20(2):205–213. https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0b013e318190ee08
Arends L (2006) Multivariate meta-analysis: modelling the heterogeneity. Haveka BV, Alblasserdam
Arsenović D, Savić S, Lužanin Z, Radić I, Milošević D, Arsić M (2019) Heat-related mortality as an indicator of population vulnerability in a mid-sized Central European city. Geogr Pannonica 23(4):204–215. https://doi.org/10.5937/gp23-22680
Brode P, Błażejczyk K, Fiala D, Havenith G, Holmer I, Jendritzky G, Kuklane K, Kampmann B (2013) The Universal Thermal Climate Index UTCI compared to ergonomics standards for assessing the thermal environment. Ind Health 51(1):16–24
Carmona R, Díaz J, Mirón IJ, Ortíz C, León I, Linares C (2016) Geographical variation in relative risks associated with cold waves in Spain: the need for a cold wave prevention plan. Environ Int 88:103–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2015.12.027
Castellani JW, Young AJ (2016) Human physiological responses to cold exposure: acute responses and acclimatization to prolonged exposure. Auton Neurosci 196:63–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autneu.2016.02.009
Chen K, Bi J, Chen J, Chen X, Huang L, Zhou L (2015) Influence of heat wave definitions to the added effect of heat waves on daily mortality in Nanjing. China Sci Total Environ 506–507:18–25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.10.092
Chen R, Yin P, Wang L, Liu C, Niu Y, Wang W et al (2018) Association between ambient temperature and mortality risk and burden: time series study in 272 main Chinese cities. BMJ 363:k4306. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.k4306
Chen J, Yang J, Zhou M, Yin P, Wang B, Liu J, Chen Z, Song X, Ou CQ, Liu Q (2019) Cold spell and mortality in 31 Chinese capital cities: definitions, vulnerability and implications. Environ Int 128:271–278. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2019.04.049
Chen J, Zhou M, Yang J, Yin P, Wang B, Ou CQ, Liu Q (2020) The modifying effects of heat and cold wave characteristics on cardiovascular mortality in 31 major Chinese cities. Environ Res Lett 15(10):105009. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abaea0
Davis RE, Hondula DM, Patel AP (2016) Temperature observation time and type influence estimates of heat-related mortality in seven U.S. cities. Environ Health Persp 124:6. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509946
de Freitas CR, Grigorieva EA (2015) A comprehensive catalogue and classification of human thermal climate indices. Int J Biometeorol 59(1):109–120. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-014-0819-3
de Moraes SL, Almendra R, Barrozo LV (2021) Impact of heat waves and cold spells on cause-specific mortality in the city of São Paulo. Brazil Int J Hyg Environ Health 239:113861. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijheh.2021.113861
DerSimonian R, Laird N (1986) Meta-analysis in clinical trials. Control Clin Trials 7(3):177–188
Dimitrova A, Ingole V, Basagaña X, Ranzani O, Milà C, Ballester J, Tonne C (2021) Association between ambient temperature and heat waves with mortality in South Asia: systematic review and meta-analysis. Environ Int 146:106170. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2020.106170
Edel’geriev RSK, Romanovskaya AA (2020) New approaches to the adaptation to climate change: the Arctic zone of Russia. Russ Meteorol Hydrol 45:305–316. https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373920050015
Ekamper P, van Duin C, van Poppel F, Mandemakers K (2010) Heat waves and cold spells and their effect on mortality: an analysis of micro-data for the Netherlands in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Ann Demogr Hist (paris) 48(2):55–104. https://doi.org/10.3917/adh.120.0055
Gasparrini A, Armstrong B (2011) The impact of heat waves on mortality. Epidemiology 22(1):68–73. https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181fdcd99
Guo Y, Gasparrini A, Armstrong BG, Tawatsupa B, Tobias A, Lavigne E, Sousa M et al (2017) Heat wave and mortality: a multicountry, multicommunity study. Environ Health Perspect 125(8):1–11. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1026
Han J, Liu S, Zhang J et al (2017) The impact of temperature extremes on mortality: a time-series study in Jinan. China BMJ Open 7:e014741. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2016-014741
Higgins JPT, Thompson SG (2002) Quantifying heterogeneity in a meta-analysis. Stat Med 21(11):1539–1558. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.1186
Hopstock LA, Fors AS, Bønaa KH, Mannsverk J, Njølstad I, Wilsgaard T (2012) The effect of daily weather conditions on myocardial infarction incidence in a subarctic population: the Tromsø Study 1974–2004. J Epidemiol Commun Health 66(9):815–820. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.2010.131458
IPCC (2021) Summary for Policymakers. In: Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pirani A, Connors SL, Péan C, Berger S, Caud N, Chen Y, Goldfarb L, Gomis MI, Huang M, Leitzell K, Lonnoy E, Matthews JBR, Maycock TK, Waterfield T, Yelekçi O, Yu R, Zhou B (eds) Climate change 2021: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. In Press
IUPS (2003) Glossary of terms for thermal physiology Third edition revised by the commission for thermal physiology of the International Union of Physiological Sciences. J Therm Biol 28(1):75–106
Kottek M, Grieser J, Beck C, Rudolf B, Rubel F (2006) World map of the Koppen-Geiger climate classification updated. Meteorol Z 1(3):259–263. https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2006/0130
Kuchcik M (2021) Mortality and thermal environment (UTCI) in Poland - long-term, multi-city study. Int J Biometeorol 65:1529–1541. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-01995-w
Kurovskaya V, Makarieva O, Nesterova N, Shikhov A, Vinogradova T (2020) Reconstruction of the hazardous flood of 2014 in Magadan city based on coupled hydrometeorological modelling. E3S Web of Conferences 163, 01007. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202016301007
Laaidi K, Zeghnoun A, Dousset B, Bretin P, Vandentorren S, Giraudet E, Beaudeau P (2012) The impact of heat islands on mortality in Paris during the august 2003 heat wave. Environ Health Perspect 120(2):254–259. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1103532
Luo Q, Li S, Guo Y, Han X, Jaakkola JJK (2019) A systematic review and meta-analysis of the association between daily mean temperature and mortality in China. Environ Res 173:281–299. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2019.03.044
Ma W, Zeng W, Zhou M, Wang L et al (2015) The short-term effect of heat waves on mortality and its modifiers in China: an analysis from 66 communities. Environ Int 75:103–109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2014.11.004
Ma Y, Zhou L, Chen K (2020) Burden of cause-specific mortality attributable to heat and cold: a multicity time-series study in Jiangsu Province. China Environ Int 144:105994. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2020.105994
Masters J (2019) Which kills more people: extreme heat or extreme cold? Weather Underground Sensor Network. https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Which-Kills-More-People-Extreme-Heat-or-Extreme-Cold. Assessed 30 October 2021
Medina-Ramón M, Schwartz J (2007) Temperature, temperature extremes, and mortality: a study of acclimatisation and effect modification in 50 US cities. Occup Environ Med 64(12):827–833. https://doi.org/10.1136/oem.2007.033175
Meng C, Ke F, Xiao Y, Huang S, Duan Y, Liu G, Yu S, Fu Y, Peng J, Cheng J, Yin P (2022) Effect of cold spells and their different definitions on mortality in Shenzhen. China Front Public Health 9:817079. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.817079
Merte S (2017) Estimating heat wave-related mortality in Europe using singular spectrum analysis. Clim Change 142:321–330. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1937-9
Ministry of Economic Development (2021) On approval of guidelines and indicators of adaptation to climate change. Order No. 267 of 13 May 2021. https://docs.cntd.ru/document/603604566. Assessed 6 March 2022.
Morton SC, Murad MH, O’Connor E, et al (2018) Quantitative synthesis—an update. In: Methods Guide for Effectiveness and Comparative Effectiveness Reviews. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (US), Rockville (MD).
Nairn JR, Fawcett RJ (2014) The excess heat factor: a metric for heatwave intensity and its use in classifying heatwave severity. Int J Environ Res Public Health 12:227–253. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph120100227
NASA (2019) Historic Heat in Alaska. NASA Earth Observatory, July 10, 2019. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145294/historic-heat-in-alaska. Accessed 5 March 2021
Naumann G, Russo S, Formetta G, Ibarreta D, Forzieri G, Girardello M, Feyen L (2020) Global warming and human impacts of heat and cold extremes in the EU. JRC PESETA IV project – Task 11. Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. https://doi.org/10.2760/47878
Oechsli FW, Buechley RW (1970) Excess mortality associated with three Los Angeles September hot spells. Environ Res 3:277–284. https://doi.org/10.1016/0013-9351(70)90021-6
O’Neill MS, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J (2003) Modifiers of the temperature and mortality association in seven US cities. Am J Epidemiol 157:1074–1082. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwg096
Osczevski R, Bluestein M (2005) The new wind chill equivalent temperature chart. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 86(10):1453–58. http://www.jstor.org/stable/26221366
Pascal M, Wagner V, Corso M, Laaidi K, Ung A, Beaudeau P (2018) Heat and cold related-mortality in 18 French cities. Environ Int 121:189–198. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.08.049
Pfeifer K, Oudin Åström D, Martinsone Ž, Kaļužnaja D, Oudin A (2020) Evaluating mortality response associated with two different Nordic heat warning systems in Riga, Latvia. Int J Environ Res Public Health 17(21):7719. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17217719
Revich BA, Shaposhnikov DA (2010) Extreme temperature episodes and mortality in Yakutsk East Siberia. Rural Remote Health 10(2):1338. https://doi.org/10.22605/RRH1338
Revich BA, Shaposhnikov DA, Anisimov OA, Belolutskaia MA (2018) Heat waves and cold spells in three arctic and subarctic cities as mortality risk factors. Hyg Sanitation 97(9):791–798. https://doi.org/10.47470/0016-9900-2018-97-9-791-798 ((In Russ.))
Revich BA, Shaposhnikov DA, Anisimov OA, Belolutskaya MA (2019) Impact of temperature waves on the health of residents in cities of the Northwestern region of Russia. Stud Russ Econ Dev 30:327–333. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700719030158
Robine JM, Cheung SL, Le Roy S, Van Oyen H, Griffiths C, Michel JP, Herrmann FR (2008) Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003. C R Biol 331(2):171–178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crvi.2007.12.001
Rocklöv J, Forsberg B, Ebi K, Bellander T (2014) Susceptibility to mortality related to temperature and heat and cold wave duration in the population of Stockholm County. Sweden Glob Health Action 7:22737. https://doi.org/10.3402/gha.v7.22737
Romanello M, McGushin A, Di Napoli C, Drummond P, Hughes N, Jamart L et al (2021) The 2021 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: code red for a healthy future. The Lancet 398(10311):1619–1662. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01787-6
Roshydromet (2019) Guidelines for general purpose short-term weather forecasts. Doc. No. RD 52.27.724 – 2019. Moscow, Roshydromet. https://meteoinfo.ru/images/media/books-docs/RHM/nast-KPP-2019.pdf (in Russian)
Ryti NR, Guo Y, Jaakkola JJ (2016) Global association of cold spells and adverse health effects: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Environ Health Perspect 124:12–22. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408104
Sera F, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Lavigne E, Schwartz J, Zanobetti A, Tobias A, Iñiguez C, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Blangiardo M, Armstrong B, Gasparrini A (2020) Air conditioning and heat-related mortality: a multi-country longitudinal study. Epidemiology 31(6):779–787. https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000001241
Shaposhnikov D, Revich B (2016) Towards meta-analysis of impacts of heat and cold waves on mortality in Russian North. Urban Clim 15:16–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2015.11.007
Shaposhnikov D, Revich B, Bellander T, Bedada G, Bottai M, Kharkova T, Kvasha E, Lezina E, Lind T, Semutnikova E, Pershagen G (2014) Heat wave and wildfire air pollution related mortality in the Summer of 2010 in Moscow. Epidemiology 25(3):359–364. https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000000090
Shartova N, Shaposhnikov D, Konstantinov P, Revich B (2018) Cardiovascular mortality during heat waves in temperate climate: an association with bioclimatic indices. Int J Environ Health Res 28(5):522–534. https://doi.org/10.1080/09603123.2018.1495322
Shartova NV, Shaposhnikov DA, Konstantinov PI, Revich BA (2019) Air temperature and mortality: heat thresholds and population vulnerability study in Rostov-on-Don. Fund Appl Climatol 2:66–94. https://doi.org/10.21513/2410-8758-2019-2-66-94
Shartova NV, Shaposhnikov DA, Konstantinov PI, Revich BA (2019) Universal thermal climate index (UTCI) applied to determine thresholds for temperature-related mortality. Health Risk Anal 3:83–93
Sheridan SC, Lee CC, Allen MJ (2019) The mortality response to absolute and relative temperature extremes. Int J Environ Res Public Health 16(9):1493. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16091493
Son JY, Lio JC, Bell M (2019) Temperature-related mortality: a systematic review and investigation of effect modifiers. Environ Res Lett 14(7):073004. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab1cdb
Sulikowska A, Wypych A (2020) Summer temperature extremes in Europe: how does the definition affect the results? Theor Appl Climatol 141:19–30. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03166-8
Tan J, Zheng Y, Tang X, Guo C, Li L, Song G, Zhen X, Yuan D, Kalkstein AJ, Li F (2010) The urban heat island and its impact on heat waves and human health in Shanghai. Int J Biometeorol 54(1):75–84. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-009-0256-x
Tomlinson CJ, Chapman L, Thornes JE et al (2011) Including the urban heat island in spatial heat health risk assessment strategies: a case study for Birmingham. UK Int J Health Geogr 10:42. https://doi.org/10.1186/1476-072X-10-42
Top S, Milošević D, Caluwaerts S, Hamdi R, Savić S (2020) Intra-urban differences of outdoor thermal comfort in Ghent on seasonal level and during record-breaking 2019 heat wave. Build Environ 185:107103. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2020.107103
Tuholske C, Caylor K, Funk C, Verdin A, Sweeney S, Grace K, Peterson P, Evans T (2021) Global urban population exposure to extreme heat. Proc Natl Acad Sci 118(41):e2024792118. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2024792118
Vaičiulis V, Jaakkola JJK, Radišauskas R et al (2021) Association between winter cold spells and acute myocardial infarction in Lithuania 2000–2015. Sci Rep 11:17062. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-96366-9
van Steen Y, Ntarladima AM, Grobbee R, Karssenberg D, Vaartjes I (2019) Sex differences in mortality after heat waves: are elderly women at higher risk? Int Arch Occup Environ Health 92(1):37–48. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00420-018-1360-1
Vilfand RM, Kiktev DB, Rivin GS (2018) On the way to the weather forecast for megacities. Collection of abstracts of the International conference dedicated to the centenary of the birth of Academician A.M. Obukhov. "Turbulence, dynamics of the atmosphere and climate". Fizmatkniga, Dolgoprudny (In Russ.)
von Hippel PT (2015) The heterogeneity statistic I2 can be biased in small meta-analyses. BMC Med Res Methodol 15:35. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-015-0024-z
Wang L, Liu T, Hu M et al (2016a) The impact of cold spells on mortality and effect modification by cold spell characteristics. Sci Rep 6:38380. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep38380
Wang Y, Shi L, Zanobetti A, Schwartz JD (2016b) Estimating and projecting the effect of cold waves on mortality in 209 US cities. Environ Int 94:141–149. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2016.05.008
Ward K, Lauf S, Kleinschmit B, Endlicher W (2016) Heat waves and urban heat islands in Europe: a review of relevant drivers. Sci Total Environ 569–570:527–539. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.06.119
Wedi NP, Polichtchouk I, Dueben P (2020) A baseline for global weather and climate simulations at 1 km resolution. J Adv Model Earth Syst 12(11):e2020MS002192
Whitman S, Good G, Donoghue ER, Benbow N, Shou W, Mou S (1997) Mortality in Chicago attributed to the July 1995 heat wave. Am J Public Health 87(9):1515–1518. https://doi.org/10.2105/ajph.87.9.1515
Wolf J, Adger WN, Lorenzoni I (2010) Heat waves and cold spells: an analysis of policy response and perceptions of vulnerable populations in the UK. Environment and Planning a: Economy and Space 42(11):2721–2734. https://doi.org/10.1068/a42503
Xiao J, Peng J, Zhang Y et al (2015) How much does latitude modify temperature-mortality relationship in 13 eastern US cities? Int J Biometeorol 59:365–372. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-014-0848-y
Xu Z, FitzGerald G, Guo Y, Jalaludin B, Tong S (2016) Impact of heatwave on mortality under different heatwave definitions: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Environ Int 89–90:193–203. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2016.02.007
Yang J, Yin P, Sun J, Wang B, Zhou M, Li M, Tong S, Meng B, Guo Y, Liu Q (2019) Heatwave and mortality in 31 major Chinese cities: definition, vulnerability and implications. Sci Total Environ 649:695–702. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.332
Yin Q, Wang J (2017) The association between consecutive days’ heat wave and cardiovascular disease mortality in Beijing. China BMC Public Health 17:223. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-017-4129-7
Zhong Y, Chen C, Wang Q, Li T (2020) High temperature and risk of cause-specific mortality in China. China CDC Wkly 2(23):408–412. https://doi.org/10.46234/ccdcw2020.105
Zhou MG, Wang LJ, Liu T, Zhang YH, Lin HL, Luo Y et al (2014) Health impact of the 2008 cold spell on mortality in subtropical China: the climate and health impact national assessment study (CHINAs). Environ Health 13:60. https://doi.org/10.1186/1476-069X-13-60
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the two anonymous Reviewers whose invaluable comments helped to improve the manuscript.
Funding
This research was financed by a grant program No. 20–55-71003 of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research “Fast environmental changes in Arctic, and their consequences for public well-being, sustainable development, and demography of the Arctic region.”
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Both authors contributed to the study conception and design. Boris Revich supervised the research project, collected mortality data, and acquired funding. Dmitry Shaposhnikov collected weather data, performed statistical analyses, and wrote the original draft and subsequent revisions of the paper. Both authors commented on successive versions of the manuscript, and read and approved the final manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Revich, B., Shaposhnikov, D. The influence of heat and cold waves on mortality in Russian subarctic cities with varying climates. Int J Biometeorol 66, 2501–2515 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-022-02375-2
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-022-02375-2