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Changes in flowering phenology of woody plants from 1963 to 2014 in North China

  • Special Issue: Asian Biometeorology (invited only)
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Abstract

Existing evidence demonstrates that the first flowering date (FFD) of most plant species became earlier in response to temperature increase over the past several decades. However, the studies on changes in flowering duration (FD) were limited. By using the non-parametric Theil–Sen estimator, this study investigated the temporal trends in 127 time series of FFD, end of flowering date (EFD), and FD of 97 woody plants from 1963 to 2014 at three sites (Harbin, Beijing, and Xi’an) in North China. The relationship between flowering phenophases and temperature was analyzed using two phenological models. The results showed that most of FFD and EFD time series exhibited an apparent advancing trend. Among them, trends of 52.0% (40.9%) of FFD (EFD) time series were significant (P < 0.05). FFD and EFD time series (95.3 and 89.8%, respectively) responded negatively and significantly to preseason temperature (P < 0.05). The direction of FD changes varied among sites and species. On average, a shortening trend of FD was observed at Harbin (−0.51 days decade−1), with 7.5% of species significantly. However, FD on average extended by 0.42 and 0.93 days decade−1 at Beijing (24.5% significantly) and Xi’an (28.9% significantly), respectively. The regression models could simulate the interannual changes in FFD and EFD with the mean goodness of fit (R2) ranging from 0.37 to 0.67, but fail to simulate the changes in FD accurately (R2 ranging from 0.09 to 0.18). The growing degree day model could improve the R2 for simulating FFD and EFD except for FD. Therefore, more phenological models need to be tested, and more drivers of FD need to be further investigated.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41401071, 41601047) and the National Major Scientific Instruments Development Project (No. 41427805).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

    Huanjiong Wang, Shuying Zhong, Zexing Tao, Junhu Dai & Quansheng Ge

  2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

    Zexing Tao

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  1. Huanjiong Wang
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  2. Shuying Zhong
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  3. Zexing Tao
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  4. Junhu Dai
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  5. Quansheng Ge
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Correspondence to Junhu Dai or Quansheng Ge.

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Wang, H., Zhong, S., Tao, Z. et al. Changes in flowering phenology of woody plants from 1963 to 2014 in North China. Int J Biometeorol 63, 579–590 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-017-1377-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-017-1377-2

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