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Application of spatial synoptic classification in evaluating links between heat stress and cardiovascular mortality and morbidity in Prague, Czech Republic

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Abstract

Spatial synoptic classification (SSC) is here first employed in assessing heat-related mortality and morbidity in Central Europe. It is applied for examining links between weather patterns and cardiovascular (CVD) mortality and morbidity in an extended summer season (16 May–15 September) during 1994–2009. As in previous studies, two SSC air masses (AMs)—dry tropical (DT) and moist tropical (MT)—are associated with significant excess CVD mortality in Prague, while effects on CVD hospital admissions are small and insignificant. Excess mortality for ischaemic heart diseases is more strongly associated with DT, while MT has adverse effect especially on cerebrovascular mortality. Links between the oppressive AMs and excess mortality relate also to conditions on previous days, as DT and MT occur in typical sequences. The highest CVD mortality deviations are found 1 day after a hot spell’s onset, when temperature as well as frequency of the oppressive AMs are highest. Following this peak is typically DT- to MT-like weather transition, characterized by decrease in temperature and increase in humidity. The transition between upward (DT) and downward (MT) phases is associated with the largest excess CVD mortality, and the change contributes to the increased and more lagged effects on cerebrovascular mortality. The study highlights the importance of critically evaluating SSC’s applicability and benefits within warning systems relative to other synoptic and epidemiological approaches. Only a subset of days with the oppressive AMs is associated with excess mortality, and regression models accounting for possible meteorological and other factors explain little of the mortality variance.

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Acknowledgments

The study was supported by the Czech Science Foundation, project P209/11/1985 and the Charles University Grant Agency, project no. 3300-243-227 249. Thanks are due to Bohumír Kříž and Jan Kynčl, National Institute of Public Health, and Hana Davídkovová, Institute of Atmospheric Physics CAS, for preparing epidemiological datasets as well as for useful discussions concerning their interpretation and to Zuzana Rulfová, Institute of Atmospheric Physics CAS, for the assistance in drawing Fig. 1. Thanks go also to the anonymous reviewers whose valuable comments improved the original manuscript. Data were provided by the Institute of Health Information and Statistics, the Czech Statistical Office and the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute.

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  1. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II 1401, 141 31, Prague 4, Czech Republic

    Aleš Urban & Jan Kyselý

  2. Faculty of Science, Charles University, Albertov 6, 128 43, Prague 2, Czech Republic

    Aleš Urban

  3. Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic

    Jan Kyselý

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Urban, A., Kyselý, J. Application of spatial synoptic classification in evaluating links between heat stress and cardiovascular mortality and morbidity in Prague, Czech Republic. Int J Biometeorol 62, 85–96 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-015-1055-1

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