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Performance evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs for the projections of precipitation extremes in Pakistan

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Abstract

Extreme weather events are more detrimental to human culture and ecosystems than typical weather patterns. A multimodel ensemble (MME) of the top-performing global climate models (GCMs) to simulate 11 precipitation extremes was selected using a hybrid method to project their changes in Pakistan. It also compared the benefits of using all GCMs compared to using only selected GCMs when projecting precipitation extremes for two future periods (2020–2059) and (2060–2099) for four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. Results showed that EC-Earth3-Veg, MRI-ESM2-0 and NorESM2-MM performed best among GCMs in simulating historical and projecting future precipitation extremes. Compared to the MME of all GCMs, the uncertainty in future projections of all precipitation indices of the selected GCMs were significantly smaller. The MME median of the selected GCMs showed increased precipitation extremes over most of Pakistan. The greater increases were in RX1day by 6–12 mm, RX5day by 12–20 mm, Prcptot by 40–50 mm, R95ptot by greater than 30 mm, R99ptot by more than 9 mm, R4mm ≥ 4 mm by 0–4 days, R10mm by 2–6 days, R20mm by 1–3 days, and SDII by 1 mm/day, CWD by one day, CDD by 0–4 days in the northern high elevated areas for SSP5-8.5 in the late future. These results emphasize the greater influence of climate change on precipitation extremes in the northern, high-elevation areas, which provide the majority of the country’s water. This emphasizes the necessity to adopt suitable climate change mitigation strategies for sustainable development, particularly in the country's northern regions.

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Availability of code

The codes used for data processing can be provided on request to the corresponding author.

Availability of data

All the data are available in the public domain at the links provided in the texts.

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  1. Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Skudai, 81310, Johor, Malaysia

    Zulfiqar Ali, Mohd Khairul Idlan Muhammad & Shamsuddin Shahid

  2. Civil Engineering Department, The Islamia University of Bahawalpur, Bahawalpur, 63100, Pakistan

    Zulfiqar Ali

  3. Construction and Building Engineering Department, College of Engineering and Technology, Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport (AASTMT), B 2401 Smart Village, Giza, 12577, Egypt

    Mohammad Magdy Hamed

  4. School of Civil & Environmental Engineering (SCEE), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Sector H-12, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan

    Zafar Iqbal

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Ali, Z., Hamed, M.M., Muhammad, M.K.I. et al. Performance evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs for the projections of precipitation extremes in Pakistan. Clim Dyn 61, 4717–4732 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06831-6

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