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Projected changes in vertical temperature profiles for Australasia

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Abstract

The vertical temperature profile in the atmosphere reflects a balance between radiative and convective processes and interactions with the oceanic and land surfaces. Changes in vertical temperature profiles can affect atmospheric stability, which in turn can impact various aspects of weather systems. In this study, we analyzed recent-past trends of temperature over the Australian region using a homogenized monthly upper-air temperature dataset and four reanalysis datasets (NCEP, ERA-Interim, JRA-55 and MERRA). We also used outputs of 12 historical and future regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the NSW/ACT (New South Wales/Australian Capital Territory) Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) project and 6 RCM simulations from the CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) Australasian project to investigate projected changes in vertical temperature profiles. The results show that the currently observed positive trend in the troposphere and negative trend in the lower stratosphere will continue in the future with significant warming over the whole troposphere and largest over the middle to upper troposphere. The increasing temperatures are found to be latitude-dependent with clear seasonal variations, and a strong diurnal variation for the near surface layers and upper levels in tropical regions. Changes in the diurnal variability indicate that near surface layers will be less stable in the afternoon leading to conditions favoring convective systems and more stable in the early morning which is favorable for temperature inversions. The largest differences of future changes in temperature between the simulations are associated with the driving GCMs, suggesting that large-scale circulation plays a dominant role in regional atmospheric temperature change.

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Acknowledgements

This work is made possible by funding from the NSW Environmental Trust for NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling Project (NARCliM), and the Australian Research Council as part of the Future Fellowship FT110100576 and Linkage Project LP120200777. A. Di Luca was supported by the Australian Research Council grants DE170101191. The modelling work was undertaken on the NCI high performance computers in Canberra, Australia, which is supported by the Australian Commonwealth Government.

We would like to thank Branislava Jovanovic at Australian Bureau of Meteorology for providing the homogenized monthly upper-air temperature dataset for Australia. This made it possible to investigate observed changes in temperature profile for Australia.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Science, Economics and Insights, NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment, Sydney, Australia

    Fei Ji, Nidhi Nishant, Nicholas Herold, Stephanie M. Downes, Eugene Tam & Kathleen Beyer

  2. Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia

    Jason P. Evans, Giovanni Di Virgilio & Alejandro Di Luca

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  1. Fei Ji
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  3. Giovanni Di Virgilio
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Ji, F., Evans, J.P., Di Virgilio, G. et al. Projected changes in vertical temperature profiles for Australasia. Clim Dyn 55, 2453–2468 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05392-2

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