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Significant changes in the ENSO-monsoon relationship and associated circulation features on multidecadal timescale

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Abstract

We observe significant changes in the ENSO–Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) relationship in past three multidecadal epochs (early epoch: 1931–1960, middle epoch: 1961–1990, and recent epoch: 1991–2015) based on consistent correlation. The rainfall during early epoch was above normal, however, in other two epochs it was relatively dry. The ENSO–ISMR relationship and its changes are mostly pronounced in the monsoon core zone. During the early epoch, the effect of La Niña was more dominant by accounting higher number of La Niña events with higher values of Niño 3.4 index, which can be attributed to the surplus rainfall over most regions of India. The rainfall during the consecutive two multidecadal epochs is below normal and this may be attributed to the strong El Niño events. The dryness in the northeast region cannot be linked with ENSO events as it has insignificant relationship with the rainfall over this region. The weakening of Low Level Jet during the recent epoch can be a reason to reduce monsoon rainfall during recent periods. It is evident that the reduced moisture transport also accounts for the reduced precipitation. The changes in equatorial Walker and regional Hadley circulations during the three epochs show the same mode of variability and in phase with the changes in rainfall and other circulation related parameters. This study emphasizes the basin mode warming of world oceans and the increased frequency of El Nino events during the recent epochs linked to the climate change and its impact of ISMR.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are thankful to the Director, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) for providing the necessary facilities and to the Executive Director, Centre for Climate Change Research, IITM for encouragement. We also thank India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the rainfall data, NCEP-NCAR, HadISST and CRU data products. The HV and CAB also acknowledge support from DST as a SERB Project (EMR/2016/003682). JK is funded by the Department of Science Technology, Climate Change Programme (SPLICE). The CCCR, IITM is fully funded by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Govt. of India.

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  1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Cochin University of Sciences and Technology, Kochi, 682016, India

    C. J. Seetha & C. A. Babu

  2. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pashan, Pune, 411008, India

    C. J. Seetha & Hamza Varikoden

  3. CORAL, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, West Bengal, India

    J. Kuttippurath

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Seetha, C.J., Varikoden, H., Babu, C.A. et al. Significant changes in the ENSO-monsoon relationship and associated circulation features on multidecadal timescale. Clim Dyn 54, 1491–1506 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05071-x

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