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Measuring Recreation Benefit Loss under Climate Change with Revealed and Stated Behavior Data: The Case of Lac Saint-Pierre World Biosphere Reserve (Québec, Canada)

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Abstract

Based on a case study carried out on the Lac Saint-Pierre (LSP) World Biosphere Reserve (Québec, Canada), this paper estimates ecosystem service loss, more precisely the loss related to cultural and recreational activities of the LSP due to the fall of its water level under the pressure of climate change. We measure two dimensions of this loss. As a first step, the extrapolation of our representative survey reports $100 million annual loss in terms of recreation revenue due to the trip reduction to LSP, which is about 60% of current level. Subsequently, the travel-cost data and the contingent behavior data are combined in a revealed and stated behavior panel random-effect estimation, which reports an additional loss measured by consumer surplus that visitors can obtain from their trips up to $232 million, signifying 42% of reduction in their current value.

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Notes

  1. http://www.ec.gc.ca/stl/default.asp?lang=Fr&n=09C5A944-1

  2. The related questions for both methods used in the paper are reported in Annex.

  3. Although the absolute level of the tourism revenue may present bias and imprecision, we still believe the relative number about the percentage of reduction in the tourism revenue to be relevant.

  4. The negative binomial distribution is a generalized Poisson distribution including a gamma noise variable that has a mean of 1 and a scale parameter of v.

  5. Although some interesting literatures have developed around the credibility of both the auto-reported travel cost and the standardized transport cost proxied by distance (see Randall 1994; Ovaskainen et al. 2012, among others), using the fuel cost and car wear as proxy of travel cost is a common way in the related literature, since very often the transport cost consists of the biggest expenditure of a trip. By using this proxy, we depart from the tourism revenue context since in both the travel cost and the contingent behavior data, we were more interested to measure visitors’ preference captured in consumer surplus, equal to the difference between total satisfaction and the actual payment. So here, a more precise measurement of the real cost payed for a trip comes to be very important, we therefore adopted the distance-based measurement in aims of gaining in measurement precision. We acknowledge certainly the potential problem with this standardized measurement of the travel cost, since people may consider the length of the travel in very heterogeneous way. We hope our combined methods based on random-effect estimation model for panel data to capture at least some part of this heterogeneity between people. We did the same estimation with the auto-reported expenditure data, but the results were statistically insignificant and very difficult to interpret. We also believe these unsatisfactory results can be explained by the potential omissions in the auto-reported trip related expenditure data that we observed in the previous section.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Département d’Économique, Université de Sherbrooke, 2500 boulevard de l’Université, Sherbrooke, QC, J1K2R1, Canada

    Jie He

  2. Département d’Économique, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC, Canada

    Hermann Enomana

  3. Département des Sciences Naturelles, Université du Québec en Outaouais, Sherbrooke, QC, Canada

    Jérôme Dupras & Charlène Kermagoret

  4. École de santé publique-Département de gestion, d’évaluation et de politique de santé, Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada

    Thomas Poder

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He, J., Enomana, H., Dupras, J. et al. Measuring Recreation Benefit Loss under Climate Change with Revealed and Stated Behavior Data: The Case of Lac Saint-Pierre World Biosphere Reserve (Québec, Canada). Environmental Management 64, 746–756 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-019-01219-x

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