Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

A study on the ageing process for polyester resin using improved Weibull statistics

  • Published:
Electrical Engineering Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Surface tracking on organic solid insulators is one of the main reasons for failure in high voltage systems. Due to various factors, such as humidity, pollution, ice load, increase in local voltage, etc., it is hard to estime the lifetime of an insulator. For many years, Weibull statistics have been widely used and accepted as a successful mathematical method of predicting the remaining lifetime of an insulating material. The basic reliability function can perform well for predefined conditions. However, it might be insufficient in lifetime prediction in multi-variable conditions. In this research, a model based on improved Weibull statistics is proposed for estimating the breakdown time of polymeric insulation material. By using appropriate parameters, this improved model can estimate the remaining lifetime within a reasonable accuracy in varying external conditions such as voltages, contaminant flow rates and applied load. To determine the model parameters, several tests are performed according to the IEC 587 accelerated inclined plane tracking test method by investigating the breakdown times of polyesters under various external conditions generated artificially in the laboratory. The calculated results are found to be in good agreement with the experimental data.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 4. a
Fig. 5.
Fig. 6.
Fig. 7.
Fig. 8.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Weibull W(1961) Fatigue testing and analysis of results. Pergamon, Oxford

  2. Wang W, Kececioglu DB (2000) Fitting the Weibull log-linear model to accelerated life-test data. IEEE Trans Reliab 49:217–223

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Watkins AJ (1994) Review: likehood method for fitting Weibull log-linear models to accelerated life-test data. IEEE Trans Reliab 49:361–365

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Tseng ST, Chyau CH (1994) A classification rule arising from accelerated life tests. Reliab Eng Syst Safety 43:247–256

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Newby M (1994) Perspective on Weibull proportional-hazard models. IEEE Trans Reliab 43:217–223

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Hagwood C, Clough R, Fields R,(1999) Estimation of the stress-threshold for the Weibull inverse power law. IEEE Trans Reliab 48:176–181

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Ugur M, Kuntman A, Merev A (2002) Investigation the ageing process in polymeric insulators using improved Weibull statistics. Paper presented at the International Symposium on Electrical Insulation (2002 ISEI) 7–10 April 2002, Boston, USA

  8. Ardali A, Kuntman A, Kaçar F, Kuntman H (2001) An application of Weibull distribution to hot carrier degradation in threshold voltage and drain current of mos transistors. The 2nd International Conference on Electrical and Electronics Engineering, ELECO'2001, Bursa, Turkey, pp 86–91

  9. Wu EY, Nowak EJ, lersten NRP, Han L-K (2000) Weibull breakdown characteristics and oxide thickness uniformity. IEEE Trans Electron Devices 47:2301–2309

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  10. Ross R (1999) Comparing linear regression and maximum likelihood methods to estimate Weibull distributions on limited data sets: systematic and random errors. In: Conference on Electrical Insulation and Dielectric Phenomena, Annual Conference Report, Austin, Tex., pp 170–173

  11. Watson JF, Mason JH, Lynch AC (1979) Assessing materials for use as outdoor insulation. Int Symp High Voltage 3:4

    Google Scholar 

  12. Mason JH (1983) Summary of factors which affect the results of inclined plane tests. CIGRE 1–3

  13. Weller MC (1999) Variation in the results of inclined plane tracking tests: some factors controlling the surface tracking activity. In: Dielectric Materials, Measurements and Applications, Conference on Solid Dielectrics, London, UK, pp 282–286

  14. Billings ML, Wilkings R, Warren L (1968) A comparison of the IEC Dust/Fog and Inclined plane test. IEEE Trans Electr Insul 3:33–39

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  15. ASTM (1983) Standard test methods for liquid contaminant, inclined plane tracking and erosion of insulating materials, ASTM (2303), pp 258–270

  16. Cacciari M, Montanari GC (1992) Electrical life threshold models for solid insulating materials subjected to electrical and multiple stresses: probabilistic approach to generalized life models. IEEE Trans Electr Insul 27:987–999

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Montanari GC (1992) Electrical life threshold models for solid insulating materials subjected to electrical and multiple stresses: investigation and comparison of life models. IEEE Trans Electr Insul 27:974–986

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Auckland DW, Ugur M, Varlow BR(1995) A surface tracking model for failure prediction. In: International Conference on Conduction and Breakdown in Solid Dielectrics (ICSD95), Leicester, UK, pp 503–507

  19. Risino AJ (1994) New test methods for assessing the relative tracking performance of insulating materials. PhD Dissertation, University of Manchester

  20. Houlgate R (1996) Outdoor testing on non ceramic insulators. In: IEE Colloquium on a Review of Outdoor Insulation Materials. IEEE, Piscataway, N.J., pp 8.1–8.4

  21. Crine P, Vijh AK(1985) A molecular approach to the physicochemical factors in the electrical breakdown of polymers. Appl Phys Commun 5:139–163

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  22. Wintle HJ (1983) Conduction processes in polymers. In: Bartnikas R, Eichhorn RM (eds) Engineering dielectrics, vol IIA. ASTM Special Technical Publication 763, pp 239–354

  23. Wiesmann HJ, Zeller HR (1986) A fractal model of dielectric breakdown and prebreakdown in solid dielectrics. J Appl Phys 60:1170–1173

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Crine P (1992) Applications of the rate theory to the understanding of various dielectric aging mechanisms. Paper presented at the Conference on Electrical Insulation and Dielectric Phenomena, Victoria, Canada

  25. Montanari GC, Simoni L (1993) Aging phenomenology and modeling. IEEE Trans Dielectr Electri lnsul 28:755–776

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  26. Stone GC, Heeswijk RGV (1977) Parameter estimation for the Weibull distribution. IEEE Trans Electr Insul 12:253–261

    Google Scholar 

  27. Chatfield C (1991) Statistics for technolgy, 3rd edn. Chapman & Hall, Bristol

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Research Fund of the University of Istanbul. Project number 34/03092002.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Engineering, Electrical-Electronics Engineering Department, Istanbul University, 34850 Avcilar, Istanbul, Turkey

    M. Ugur, A. Kuntman & A. Ersoy

Authors
  1. M. Ugur
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. A. Kuntman
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. A. Ersoy
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to A. Kuntman.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Ugur, M., Kuntman, A. & Ersoy, A. A study on the ageing process for polyester resin using improved Weibull statistics. Electr Eng 85, 283–288 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00202-003-0175-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00202-003-0175-5

Key words

Search

Navigation