Risk, Decision and Rationality

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-x

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2. Introductory Chapter

   1. A Guide to Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

      • Bertrand R. Munier

      Pages 1-34

3. Concepts and Experiments in Utility Evaluation

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 35-35

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   2. Different Experimental Procedures for Obtaining Valuations of Risky Actions: Implications for Utility Theory

      • Graham Loomes

      Pages 37-57

   3. Investigating Utility and Value Functions with an “Assessment Cube”

      • Mark R. McCord, Christos Leotsarakos

      Pages 59-75

   4. Evaluation Questions and Income Utility

      • N. L. van der Sar, B. M. S. van Praag, S. Dubnoff

      Pages 77-96

   5. Cardinal Utility: An Empirical Test

      • Jean M. Guiot, Jean Lefoll

      Pages 97-102

   6. A Note on the Relationships between Utility and Value Functions

      • Denis Bouyssou, Jean-Claude Vansnick

      Pages 103-114

   7. Expected Utility Theory without Continuous Preferences

      • Michael D. Weiss

      Pages 115-126

   8. Assessing other People’s Utilities

      • John C. Harsanyi

      Pages 127-138

   9. A Comment on J. Harsanyi’s “Assessing other People’s Utilities”

      • Philippe Mongin

      Pages 139-144

4. Experimental Investigation and the Expected Utility Hypotheses

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 145-145

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   2. Experimental Investigations into Economic Behaviour under Uncertainty

      • John D. Hey

      Pages 147-162

   3. “Preference Reversals” and the Theory of Decision Making under Risk

      • Edi Karni, Zvi Safra

      Pages 163-172

   4. Preponderence of the Certainty Effect Over Probability Distortion in Decision Making Under Risk

      • Michèle Cohen, Jean-Yves Jaffray

      Pages 173-187

   5. A Model of the Influence of Certainty and Probability “Effects” on the Measurement of Utility

      • Richard de Neufville, Philippe Delquie

      Pages 189-205

5. Criticisms of Expected Utility Theory and Alternative Models

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 207-207

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   2. Expected Utility Theory and Ordinalism. A Political Marriage

      • Ole Hagen

      Pages 209-220

   3. The Bayesian Approach: Irreconcilable with Expected Utility Theory?

      • Robin Elizabeth Pope

      Pages 221-230

   4. The General Theory of Random Choices in Relation to the Invariant Cardinal Utility Function and the Specific Probability Function. The (U, θ) Model A General Overview

      • Maurice Allais

      Pages 231-289

Decision Theory has considerably developed in the late 1970's and the 1980's. The evolution has been so fast and far-r2aching that it has become increasingly difficult to keep track of the new state of the art. After a decade of new contributions, there was a need for an overview' of the field. This book is intended to fill the gap. The reader will find here thirty~nine selected papers which were given at FUR-III, the third international confe­ rence on the Foundations and applications of Utility, Risk and decision theories, held in Aix-en-Provence in June 1986. An introductory chapter will provide an overview of the main questions raised on the subject since the 17th Century and more particularly so in the last thirty years, as well as some elementary information on the experimental and theoretical results obtained. It is thus hoped that any reader with some basic background in either Economics, Hanagement or Operations Research will be able to read profitably the thirty-nine other chapters. Psychologists, Sociologists, Social Philosophers and other specialists of the social sciences will also read this book with interest, as will high-level practitioners of decision~making and advanced students in one of the abovementioned fields. An expository survey of this volume will be found at the end of the introductory chapter, so that any of the seven parts of the book can be put by the reader in due perspective.

• calculus
• decision making
• decision theory
• modeling
• production
• regression
• risk theory
• utility theory

• GRASCE, University of Aix-Marseille III, France

  Bertrand R. Munier

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