Application of Granularity Computing to Confirm Compliance with Non-Proliferation Treaty

Summary

Safeguards are essentially a technical means of verifying the fulfillment of political obligations undertaken by States and given a legal force in international agreements relating to the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. The main political objectives are: to assure the international community that States are complying with their non-proliferation and other peaceful undertakings; and to deter (a) the diversion of safeguarded nuclear materials to the production of nuclear explosives or for military purposes and (b) the misuse of safeguarded facilities with the aim of producing unsafeguarded nuclear material.

This chapter has been prepared based on the results of the project “Development of an Intelligent System for Monitoring and Evaluation of Peaceful Nuclear Activities (DISNA), Stage 1: Conceptual Model” [10]. The International Atomic Energy Agency, Department of Safeguards, Division of Concepts and Planning, Section for System Studies, in co-operation with Moscow State University, Department of Mechanics and Mathematics, has initiated this program. The goal of the system, structure and logic of the model, integration of the IAEA safeguards information sources, technical, technological and other factors which are used as evaluation criteria, structure of DISNA, mathematical foundations, technology of information processing and evaluation in DISNA is being discussed in this report.

Application of fuzzy logic concept in a real world situation, such as detection of clandestine nuclear programme to enhance safeguards effectiveness would be enormous The combination of

• the systems approach using fuzzy logic;

• the mandated “transparency and openness” environment ; and

• the results of actual on site visits/inspections cued by “fuzzy logic” evaluations is likely to be quite powerful.

When fully developed, DISNA will provide a mechanism for use in monitoring and evaluation of all persistent information for current as well as future needs of the IAEA such as nuclear free zones, monitoring of treaties, etc.

One of the theoretical base of DISNA is the theory of fuzzy information granulation [16, 17]. Taking into account a great importance of this problem for modern international community and very big interest of similar subject areas for application of granularity computing we decide to publish our result in this book. We hope that our ideas and results described here will be stimulate a new application of granularity computing techniques.

This work has been performed under the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Vienna. It is based on all information and knowledge available to the authors but does not necessarily reflect the policy expressed or Implied by the IAEA or its Member States